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Real Vision

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Discussion List

  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Get Your Day Started
    * July CPI Downside Miss Trade from Weston Nakamura * ETF Lay Of The Land by Christopher Moir  * This thread about the best macro play for 5 years. * An Answer to Raoul talks about the dominator getting weaker often. So its not about the DXY getting weaker but the purchasing power ... here can help clarify this for ya boy ? * Fed cannot allow markets to fail from Md Uddin * Longevity research and David Sinclair from Violeta Daskalova * Who doesn't love tight consolidations? A trade idea from St…
    Petr Pinkhasov 3 views 2 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s
  • Weston Nakamura
    July CPI downside miss trade: 30y UST + gold + Softbank
    30y UST Futures (ZB): delta neutral w/ upside convexity bias (long end yields fall) 4:1 ratio calls to futures: •Long Sept 165 Calls (25 ∆) •Short ZBU1 Sept 30y futures  time horizon: close at 8:31am - end of week Long Gold calls on futures (GC): 1775 / 1800 call spread time horizon: close at 8:31am - end of week Long Softbank (my “long tech“ expression - as explained to @Jeremiah S Softbank, via japan listed 9984 Softbank + US listed SFTBY (for ”round the clock” trading). this is my “n…
    Weston Nakamura 3 views 2 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura
  • violeta_d
    Longevity research and David Sinclair
    I wanted to post this on the last Insider Talks comment section, but it is still closed for comments so I decided to spill it here  I hope @Raoul Pal reads it. I see how the idea about "aging is a disease"  is appealing to people. I listened to David Sinclair views during two interviews and I am highly convinced That his main goal is just to sell aging tests, books and whatever else he has to sell. If you have never studied aging, his story sound solid and fascinating. The truth is, …
    violeta_d 4 views 2 comments Most recent by violeta_d
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Ralph Humphrey 2 views 1 comment Most recent by John Ahearn
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • sam_c
    What benchmark do you use to compare your portfolio to?
    What benchmark do you use to compare your portfolio to?
    Poll sam_c 4 views 2 comments Most recent by christopher_m
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes Episode 5: Will CPI MISS to the Downside?
    https://vimeo.com/585338623In this Episode: •One Last Look at the Used & New Car Market Ahead of US July CPI, tomorrow (Wed 8/11) •Used Cars and Trucks have contributed to ⅓ of the index in the previous 2 months, where CPI came in at/above 5%. •Consensus Estimates undershot headline CPI for the past 4 consecutive months. This time, consensus is at an aggressive 5.3%, matching last month’s actual figure. Used Car prices are expected to remain ↑ •Yet, @Brad S and I see a potentially very …
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 11 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Real Vision Daily Briefing Q&A w/ Tony Greer
    On today's Real Vision Daily Briefing, we are joined by Tony Greer who we welcome back to discuss all things going on in markets. Last week, Tony discussed several key topics around inflation and commodity prices. The CPI print which comes out tomorrow (which helps us all gauge various levels of inflation) is most likely going be a big deal for a lot of narratives. What questions do you have for Tony and Ash?
    Petr Pinkhasov 11 views 2 comments Most recent by James Lierman
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Check Out
    Markets mostly choppy this morning. Bitcoin futures continue to hold near highest levels since May after Monday's 7%+ gain and ~50% gain in recent weeks. European indices are trading in positive territory except for the FTSE. Some signs that economic recovery is losing momentum: yesterday's Eurozone investor sentiment saw third consecutive month of decline. Asian equities ended mostly higher on Tuesday. Japan ended with gains on strong corporate earnings and weaker yen, Australia also higher …
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov
  • stephen_m
    Is there any regulatory cap on how many times a Treasury Bill can be synthesised in the market? I...
    Is there any regulatory cap on how many times a Treasury Bill can be synthesised in the market? Is there a limit on the collateral multiplier, noting the title is retained by the creator?
    Question stephen_m 2 views 0 comments Started by stephen_m
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Ralph Humphrey 3 views 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Here's what Senator Pat Toomey had to say about the Wyden-Toomey-Lummis amendment that would affe...
    "A year from now, there will be all kinds of new innovations that we haven't thought of and that probably nobody's thought of. And we may very well have to go back and revisit the rules, but what we shouldn't do is have an overly broad mandate or reporting requirement on people who can't possibly comply." -Senator Pat Toomey
    Ralph Humphrey 3 views 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    RVDB w/ Darius Dale, Jack and Ash!
    Top Headlines * Senate takes two more steps toward passing the $1T bipartisan infrastructure bill after delays (Politico) * Chinese state media Friday said regulators will show no tolerance in cracking down on speculators in the chip market (Bloomberg) * Gold recovered from flash crash that saw prices drop $60 in minutes on Fed taper bets (Bloomberg) * Bundesbank chief Weidmann warns over inflation risk and bond-buying (Welt am Sonntag) Markets * Traditional markets are mostly tame this morn…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Petr Pinkhasov
  • stephen_m
    With RRP levels continuing to increase and hitting above $1TN and the DXY looking at a potential ...
    With RRP levels continuing to increase and hitting above $1TN and the DXY looking at a potential break out, are we looking at a "risk off" period and flight to USD? If yes or eventually when yes, how long can institutional investors stay in cash given negative interest rates and high RRP levels at 5bps along with a lack of pristine collateral from a shortage of T-Bills? Is a short term correction and strong bounce a guarantee?
    Question stephen_m 2 views 0 comments Started by stephen_m
  • Weston Nakamura
    Week Ahead: Mon Aug 9 - Fri Aug 13 w/ Petr & Weston
    https://vimeo.com/584843372FX Futures roll week ahead of expiry Mon 8/16 (AUD, EUR, JPY, GBP) Monday Aug 9 (Japan Holiday) •Fed speeches: Atlanta Fed Bostic & Richmond Fed Barkin (both taper-favoring) Earnings: AMC, Berkshire Hathaway •US JOLTS Tues Aug 10 Earnings:  🇯🇵Softbank, 🇺🇸 COIN •ARK monthly seminar - first after dropping all China exposure + adding HOOD Wed Aug 11 •US CPI •10Y UST Auction Earnings: 🇨🇳Baidu, NetEase, TAL Education (rescheduled) 🇺🇸Disney, Airbnb Thurs Aug…
    Weston Nakamura 3 views 4 comments Most recent by john_c
  • jason_b
    PoW portion of stimulus bill
    I this face of China clamping down in bitcoin, the PoW portion of the stim bill could be a signal to the rest of the world that the US is pro-BTC...  Just trying make sense of something that makes no sense.  Could be nothing other than the wrong people driving the bus as well.
    jason_b 1 view 0 comments Started by jason_b
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Get Your Questions In For Raoul on RVDB Today!
    Today, @Ash Bennington is joined by Real Vision co-founder, @Raoul Pal to discuss global markets, crypto and other market happenings!  Got a question for the duo?  Drop them below!
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 10 comments Most recent by claudio_d
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Hmm....
    "Only when we know something very, very well, we can explain it in simple terms. Very often, when I'm asking something, and I must say, I apologize, I say frankly, I don't know that stuff well enough to explain it right now, give me a few years. I'll be able to find a better explanation, a simple explanation. Because simplicity is the ultimate sophistication or is the ultimate state of knowledge when you know something so well that you can transmit it to others, it does take time.”       …
    Ralph Humphrey 2 views 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Charting With Petr Episode 4
    https://vimeo.com/583861975Hope you enjoy!
    Petr Pinkhasov 6 views 3 comments Most recent by john_c
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Michael Saylor and Saifedean Ammous on Twitter Live now….
    https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1zqJVXPqRwVKB
    Ralph Humphrey 8 views 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Check Out This Morning!
    * US Jobs Report Explained by @Weston Nakamura  * ETF LAY of the Land - FriYAY! 6th August 2021 by @Christopher Moir  * Crypto Amendments to Infrastructure Bill - call your Senators before Saturday vote! by @Andrew Hay  * A Sudbury Saturday Night by @Stefan Clulow  * Edge of Tomorrow. 6th August 2021. by @Matt Daniell  * Here is quick look at crypto trading volume delineated by investor type. by @Ralph Humphrey 
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov
  • Weston Nakamura
    Live NOW: Jack Farley w/ Julian Brigden on Twitter
    https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1MYxNmgwwLLJw
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura
  • simon_b
    Are there any professional traders on here ? I've got a little 5 person whatsapp group going of "...
    Are there any professional traders on here ? I've got a little 5 person whatsapp group going of "pros only" for more complex nuanced discussions. If you think this suits and you fancy joining - hit me up.
    Answered simon_b 3 views 1 comment Most recent by christopher_m
  • Stefan Clulow
    A Sudbury Saturday Night
    I was glad to see the workers at the old Inco mines in Sudbury - the mining camp in Northern Ontario now owned by Vale, come to a deal with the bosses in Brazil.   When I grew up in Sudbury in the ‘70s and 80s, mining was a big deal - whole communities of Italians, Irish, Croats, Serbs, Hungarians, Finns, Franco-Ontarians,  Ukranians and Poles (mixed Polish and Ukranian friends were affectionately called Pukes back then) made good lives out of that ore.  They all had halls, clubs and other ass…
    Stefan Clulow 1 view 1 comment Most recent by john_c
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Markets Green, Bitcoin Bouncing and Jim Bianco is on RVDB!
    Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research LLC, joins @Ash Bennington and @Jack Farley on today's Real Vision Daily Briefing. Markets somewhat tame today with healthcare the only loser. Bitcoin rallying hard off of the lows. What questions do you have for the trio today?
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 4 comments Most recent by john_c
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Are you a hedgehog or a fox?
    "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing."                                                                                                 - Archilochus
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 4 comments Most recent by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Check Out This Morning
    * @Amol G shares a video update on his crypto views. * Bank of England is going to start a QE unwind!? Now? Isn't growth slowing down!? Thanks for sharing @Christopher Moir  * Africa Energy Backed By Total - Asset Sale Behind The Corner To Triple Your Capital from @Jan Martinek  * ETF Lay Of The Land - An ETF Dashboard of factors and sectors from @Christopher Moir  * Long SPY Puts from @Stefan Juriansz  * @John Kidd asks a question about the the carbon trade. 
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Real Vision Daily Briefing! Ask Me Your Questions!
    Going live with @Jack Farley and @Weston Nakamura today at 4PM EST. Please drop your questions below! We will talk about the growth slowdown, ISM/ADP numbers and the Robinhood stock price action! 
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Petr Pinkhasov
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Check Out This Morning!
    * Lamar Wilson join's our own @Ash Bennington and @Weston Nakamura for an exchange exclusive where they discuss all things crypto and Bitcoin. * @Ron MacIntyre asks what the Exchange thinks about Uranium here. Welcomes thoughts from others.  * @Weston Nakamura compares the Robinhood IPO to meme stocks! Entertaining to say the least! Can always count on Weston for the contrarian analysis!  * @Christopher Moir shares his "Lay Of The Land" which is an ETF Dashboard comparing sectors, fac…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 1 comment Most recent by bobby_j
  • Weston Nakamura
    The Same Trade? See these charts
    What do cars, cryptocurrencies, asset managers, movie theaters, and meme trading have in common? They're the same trade on the 10Y UST Yield (or vice versa?) - here's the wild goose chase. First- why did $HOOD rally +24% yesterday on no news? My suspicion for the reason led me to the OCC site, where I checked the criteria for when exchanges can list options following an IPO. They are as follows (and $HOOD checks the boxes): ✓ The underlying stock must have a minimum of seven million shares o…
    Weston Nakamura 4 views 10 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Here's a sampling of the 5-day performance of "obvious" trades noted by members of the exchange t...
    Note: Gold was part of a pair trade, and KWEB is serving as a proxy for Chinese tech stocks.  See the initial post on the topic for more. Chart 1   Chart 2  
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    RealVision Daily Briefing Q&A with Tony Greer
    With U.S. stocks trading with increased volatility, bonds trading higher, crypto falling, Tony dives into what risks are markets pricing in currently, and what opportunities does that lead to for investors?  Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Ash Bennington, senior editor at Real Vision, to discuss Greer’s impression of the action today. Do you have any questions for the duo? 
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 1 comment Most recent by pratap_v
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    What is your most obvious trade right now?
    With markets starting to go side-ways, what are you seeing in terms of opportunity? Or maybe is the time to just go enjoy the summer and leave markets alone? The more I look at the screens today, the more I am leaning towards the later and just stay long crypto? 
    Petr Pinkhasov 5 views 40 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Get Your Morning Started
    * ETF Lay Of The Land from @Christopher Moir  * US Markets Price Action by @Weston Nakamura  * A review of homebuilding by @Sam Colt  * @Matt Daniell dives into the Asia-pac action.  * @Ralph Humphrey shares the last 24 hour returns of Crypto assets  * @Jeremiah S posts another video of the crypto portfolio!  * Some technical analysis on volatility from @Stefan Juriansz  On my side, I'm keeping an eye on markets here and starting to get defensive. Got a sell signal yesterday on the RTY future …
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov
  • sam_c
    *for the first time since june Japanese 10y does not trade LoL @weston
    I love that little *Note: "the first time the 10y jananese bond doesn't trade since June" but said cryptically.  @Weston Nakamura I know you are almost a broken record about japan, but it remains such a wild story.   
    sam_c 4 views 2 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura
  • sam_c
    60 years of homebuilding in my favourite developing country.
    Here is a well-written short review of home building in murica.    07-08 was really dramatic for new builds content: * Homebuilding in 2020 * Homebuilding a history * Drivers of Home Building   interesting; "More homes were permitted in Austin last year than in Los Angeles and Chicago combined."  
    sam_c 1 view 0 comments Started by sam_c
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Is there a long-term bear case for ARKK? Or, is this simply opportunistic short-term stuff?
    Anti-Ark ETF to Bet Against Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-30/anti-ark-etf-to-bet-against-cathie-wood-s-flagship-fund?sref=TBDibEcD Those who think Cathie Wood’s hot hand is cooling may soon be able to express that view via an exchange-traded fund. The Short ARKK ETF would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion Ark Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) -- the largest fund in Ark Investment Management’s lineup -- through swaps contracts…
    Ralph Humphrey 3 views 2 comments Most recent by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    RV Daily Briefing with Ash, Jack & Darius Dale.
    @Jack Farley and @Ash Bennington welcome back 42 Macro founder Darius Dale back to the Daily Briefing! Today, the trio plan on discussing the drop in Crude Oil Prices, Bitoin and Square earnings!  Feel free to drop your questions in below and we will try to answer as many as we can! 
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 2 comments Most recent by ryan_m
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Here is a list of Blackrock's top 10 geopolitical risks, ranked by likelihood.
    “Everything seems amazing in retrospect. Pearl Harbor seems amazing in retrospect. It is a failure of imagination.” - D. Rumsfeld 1. Global technology decoupling  2. Major cyberattack 3. Emerging markets political crisis 4. U.S.-China strategic competition 5. Major terror attack(s) 6. North Korean conflict 7. COVID-19 resurgence 8. Climate policy gridlock 9. European fragmentation 10. Gulf tensions
    Ralph Humphrey 11 views 17 comments Most recent by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Charts With Petr Episode 3 Ft Douglas Busch of ChartSmarter
    https://vimeo.com/581310846This week I'm joined by Douglas Busch to discuss the charts! We talk about Semiconducters, the reopening trade, our favorite patterns and much more over a happy hour talk after working hours. Douglas is a life-long technician who has seen it all over the last two decades. Hoping to have him on more often! 
    Petr Pinkhasov 3 views 1 comment Most recent by john_c
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchange Week Ahead (Video + Calendar) Mon Aug 2 - Fri Aug 6
    https://vimeo.com/581862755Week Ahead: Mon Aug 2- Fri Aug 6 US Debt Ceiling reinstated yesterday (Sun), US Treasury Dept starts using extraordinary measures Final week of Tokyo Olympics (Closing Ceremony Sun, Tokyo Paralympics following) Monday August 02 (Holidays: Canada) •  China Caixin Manufacturing PMI  JUL • Japan Consumer Confidence   • Germany: Institutional Funds (Spezialfonds) law allowing for up to 20% allocation to crypto in effect Tuesday August 03  •  🏦🇦🇺 RBA Policy Decisio…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura
  • David
    Titan Global Capital Management
    Does anyone have experience with Titan Global Capital Management? They are launching Titan Crypto this week. I own BTC, ETH, GBTC, ETCG, HUT, KROEF and about a dozen alt coins. I may throw a little capital there way as a diversifier. https://www.titan.com/
    David 4 views 3 comments Most recent by David
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • Simon Doherty
    Can you guys get Yat Siu on the show? I can help arrange... https://twitter.com/animocabrands/sta...
    Can you guys get Yat Siu on the show? I can help arrange... https://twitter.com/animocabrands/status/1419733041426141185?s=20Onboarding the next billion to blockchain🌌! Watch @ysiu of @animocabrands chat with @joetsai1999, Co-Founder & Executive Vice Chairman of @AlibabaGroup & owner of the @BrooklynNets🏀, whose family office, Blue Pool Capital, invested in our US$1B round🎉 👉🏻https://t.co/Cq0hQwcBy2 pic.twitter.com/xMkklVntEV — Animoca Brands (@animocabrands) July 26, 2021
    Question Simon Doherty 3 views 0 comments Started by Simon Doherty
  • jason_b
    water levels
    To answer the inflation vs. deflation as well as sticky vs. transient debates I have this to offer... As a base we have a reasonably steady rising tide of inflation mostly in the stock market and housing as a result of post-GFC 10 year yields being suppressed for over a decade.  Add to that a tidal wave of liquidity coming down the pike that is resultant from the covid response and you get a good picture of the waters we are in...  Baseline reasonable demand pull levered up 10x as a result of …
    jason_b 1 view 0 comments Started by jason_b
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Maybe they should space out the FMAAG earnings releases?
    One market observer has noted that when Big Tech releases earnings in the span of a week, the S&P 500 dips.  The trend goes back to 2015.
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 1 comment Most recent by matthew_l
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Real Vision Daily Briefing 7/30/2021: Ash Bennington, Jack Farley and Mark Ritchie II - Drop Your...
    Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Mark Ritchie II, CIO at RTM Capital Advisors, to discuss the Robinhood IPO and various happenings in ARKK + broad market action. Drop your questions below for the trio to answer live at 4PM EST!
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 1 comment Most recent by John Sundheim
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Get Your Day Started
    What an active morning! So much great content, well done gang! * Well first and foremost, we have to give a big shout out to @Jeremiah S for the Crypto Portfolio video. This was great to see some facetime and get some more insight into your thinking! Hopefully more down the line! * Check out @Weston Nakamura and @Brad S on Exchanging Lanes Ep 4. Weston and Brad do a deep dive into the macroscape based on observations from someone who has real insight into what is going on in the economy.  *  A…
    Petr Pinkhasov 2 views 2 comments Most recent by matthew_l
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Let's take a look at the on chain data for BTC.
    On chain data suggests that over 60,0000 of BTC has been moved off exchange in the last 24 hours - a bullish sign. But, what appears to be an off-exchange move may really be internal transfers and mislabeled. There was also news that a regulatory change will allow a category of German institutional investment funds to invest in crypto assets as of this upcoming Monday.  
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • sam_c
    How Common is Crypto?
    @Weston Nakamura loves to talk about the Turkish Lira and its relationship with BTC  https://exchange.realvision.com/post/unconventional-long-btc-hedge-long-turkish-lira-previous-btc-notes-links-60a71b4dbf08854faa7dbfdb He also once said something to the tune of "Stop focussing on BTC/USD there are a lot of people looking at a very different BTC/X"  well, this could give you a useful idea of the other popular crosses:    I did think Crypto was banned in India and china so I'm a b…
    sam_c 5 views 1 comment Most recent by christopher_m
  • Stefan Clulow
    It is snowing in Brazil.
    Anyone else taking a punt on coffee futures or JO?   https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/astonished-locals-build-snowmen-throw-24648984
    Stefan Clulow 1 view 4 comments Most recent by Ralph Humphrey
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes Episode 4: End of the Used Car Madness (& ⅓ of CPI)?
    https://vimeo.com/580575712In this episode: •Brad Breakfast Index PRICE ALERT- No Trade *  •Used Cars: Insanity continues / worsens, BUT... •New Car Supply Floods In → End of Used Car Price FOMO → End of >5% CPI? •LTL Hits the Supply Chain & Getting Worse (as warned!) * This was recorded before @Jack Farley  ’s RV Live interview with commods expert Shawn Hackett on Brazil’s major coffee frost →  WHAT THE MILLENNIUM’S FIRST MAJOR COFFEE FROST MEANS FOR AG COMMODITIES Question for al…
    Weston Nakamura 3 views 11 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Today's RVDB w/ Ash, Jack & Jared Dillian
    On today's Real Vision Daily Briefing, we are joined by Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirtnap hosted by our own @Jack Farley and @Ash Bennington.   Drop your questions for the trio down below to get them in ahead of time! 
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 1 comment Most recent by christopher_y
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Get Your Morning Started!
    * Here's a look at transaction volumes of BTC and ETH from January 2020 to June 2021 as reported by select major exchanges. Thanks @Ralph Humphrey  * Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Charged With Lying to Investors. Many thanks for sharing @Claudio Delgado  * Market update about BTC + ETH + Altcoins I'm bullish on!. Nice video @Amol G  * @John Gribbin asks if anyone knows the status of some legislation regarding Crypto.  * Amazing crypto post from @Alex Beckett regarding crypto portfolio allocation…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 2 comments Most recent by amol_g
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Is anyone here in position to send me a quick note tonight on the weather conditions in Parana an...
    Is anyone here in position to send me a quick note tonight on the weather conditions in Parana and South Minas Gerais in Brazil?
    Question Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • Weston Nakamura
    Daily Briefing Exchange After Hours w/ Jack & Weston (Wed Jul 28 2021)
    https://vimeo.com/580500005Thank you all for your questions from the Exchange  @Bill T @Tamim Sultan @Muddshir Hussain !  Jack and I discuss BTC, BTC & crypto scene in Japan, a taste of the next episode of Exchanging Lanes with @Brad S and disruptions in the Brad Breakfast Index - explained via @Jack Farley on RV Live w/ Shawn Hackett on coffee futures from yesterday.   Trade Idea posts (open & closing) ↓  (July 6) LONG “Capitalism” / SHORT “…with Chinese characteristics” (July 27)…
    Weston Nakamura 2 views 14 comments Most recent by Alex Newman
  • jason_b
    thoughts from today
    As you could replace Mike Myers and Scotland with Xi Jinping and China in a "If it's not Scottish, it's crap!!" SNL skit you can see the end game for BTC in China.  Oddly enough that makes BTC one of the few things that can unify the rest of the world against the ideological authoritarian state... With a country's economy based on collateral (It is possible and even necessary to insert the word confidence here and understand the implications.) as a result of being at the end of a deb…
    jason_b 1 view 0 comments Started by jason_b
  • Ralph Humphrey
    China's Plunge Protection team?
    Bloomberg News released a story this afternoon explaining that a Chinese "regulator convened a virtual meeting with executives of major investment banks" Wednesday night, which is an "attemp[t] to ease market fears about Beijing’s crackdown on the private education industry."   The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index is up about 8.85% (right now) on the back of this news. The article focused on regulatory actions in the education sector but omitted discussion of regulatory act…
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 4 comments Most recent by christopher_m
  • Weston Nakamura
    Daily Briefing Questions for Today
    Hey everyone, I’ll be on the Daily Briefing today with @Jack Farley to discuss July FOMC (out at 2pm EST / Chair Powell at 2:30pm EST), and China equities vs US (short CQQQ / long QQQ closed yesterday), along with Cathie Wood & Delta/Tokyo Olympics risk update.   Please post your questions below! (And as usual, anything that doesn’t get answered due to time, I’ll come back to and answer on the Exchange following!)  Thanks everyone!
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Good Morning Exchange, Here Are Your Top Posts To Get Your Day Started!
    Good morning from EST. Here are some of the top content to get your day started.  * Some data out of the Richmond Manufacturing Index where @Claudio Delgado shares some tidbits and metrics that dive deeper into the data.  * Get your day started with @Christopher Moir's ETF Dashboard which gives some color on where the market is from sectors to factors.  * @Ralph Humphrey shares a post about China telling locals to start BUYING the dip in China equities! * @Matt Daniell's color on Asia-Pac mark…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Interesting....
    The official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party telling people to buy the dips and "reassur[ing] readers that the big picture of the economy and liquidity remained intact." China’s state media moves to reassure rattled investors after rout wiped US$574 billion off stock market https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-state-media-moves-reassure-044854654.html Zhang Shidong Tue., July 27, 2021, 12:48 a.m.·3 min read China’s state media are on a mission to talk up the b…
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 1 comment Most recent by sam_c
  • jason_b
    BTC thoughts
    1 Log chart only for this asset class.  Weekly chart is king.  4 hour is what traders are using. 2 Lower bound of trend channel from the 2017-18 run up ended up being the resistance needed to stop the recent leg up.  The uppper side of that same trend channel hits 310k in late September... wide range of possibilities here.  3 the ~460% rise from the potential first leg when applied to this leg takes up to the upper bound of the current channel potentially at near 330k around late November fuc…
    jason_b 1 view 0 comments Started by jason_b
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Global Macro + Crypto Technicals 3
    Time to dive deep into some of the charts that are in play in the global macro space.  KWEB (China Internet ETF) is down a serious amount over the last few days. We are now threatening to break a trend line that is going back almost 6 years. Today's volume also happened to be the highest in the ETF's history. Small caps are trading like it is 2003. This was an analog that I discovered a couple of days ago. I think this might be more of interest for @Raoul Pal given how tight the market ha…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Petr Pinkhasov
  • Ralph Humphrey
    US markets are down. These stocks are up.
    Group 1 I don't see any consistent themes here.  Dingdong (Cayman) Limited sticks out as a Chinese tech stock, bucking the downward drift of Chinese tech stocks.  Group 2      
    Ralph Humphrey 11 views 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Real Vision Daily Briefing: Get Your Questions In For Tommy Thornton & Ash
    @Tommy Thornton, president at Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins the Daily Briefing with @Ash Bennington  to discuss happenings in the market. What are you questions for the duo today? 
    Petr Pinkhasov 5 views 2 comments Most recent by alexey_t
  • Ralph Humphrey
    You know I'll be watching this with interest.
    https://www.realvision.com/shows/live/videos/what-the-millenniums-first-major-coffee-frost-means-for-ag-commodities
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Get Your Day Started!
    * First, get your lay of the land from @Christopher Moir about market happenings and dynamics on the ETF and Factor side. Really great stuff, Christopher. * @Claudio Delgado shares a post regarding the Case-Shiller home index report that has come out. Thank you for the color!  * Here is an interesting post from @Weston Nakamura to add context to the content coming out of the Real Vision content about Cathie Wood's views on TSLA et al.  * Here is a post from @Kevin Ip regarding the network impac…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Petr Pinkhasov
  • Weston Nakamura
    Cathie Wood RV Series Discussion: TSLA & China
    Really been enjoying this Cathie Wood series so far, but also extremely well timed and highly relevant market in real time   (I’ve said in many occasions that the RV team who books / sets the programming schedule are like the best market timing  “predictors” of all time lol - and it’s very true). Market Developments in the last 24-48 hours (as Cathie Wood series started): •TSLA Q2 Earnings beat: EPS $1.45 vs $0.96 est. OP $1.3bn (3x YoY), overcoming the fundamental bear case hurdles. EV deliv…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 1 comment Most recent by carlos_l
  • Ralph Humphrey
    With Chinese stocks top of mind, here is a look at two indices focused on China. A tale of two i...
    The first index, the SSE Composite, is a stock market index of all stocks that are traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Year to Date: -1.01% The second index, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China, is composed of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. Year to Date: -26.94%
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 1 comment Most recent by sam_c
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    RVDB Jack, Ash & Darius Dale of 42 Macro! Any Questions For The Trio?
    ARE CHINESE STOCKS DOOMED? Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, sits down with Real Vision’s @Ash Bennington  and @Jack Farley  on the Daily Briefing to discuss Bitcoin’s rebound, Chinese regulatory concerns, and deflationary signals on Dale’s radar. Dale explains potential tailwinds for Bitcoin’s recent strength despite the increase in China’s regulation of technology and educational companies. Before the briefing concludes, Ash and Jack will preview an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Ki…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 4 comments Most recent by claudio_d
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Weekly Influence Points Winners!
    Congrats to last week's winners! Remember you can win the weekly prize once a quarter and the monthly one every 6 months. @Sam Colt  @Wissam Ali  @Brad S  In case you forgot: Our Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. 
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 5 comments Most recent by wissam_a
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Week Ahead! Market Events & Earnings + Charts
    Markets Week Ahead  Mon 7/26 * Earnings: Lockheed & TSLA  Tues 7/27 * Australia Inflation  * Earnings: AAPL GOOG MSFT AMD V GE  Wed 7/28 * Turkey CBRT Policy Minutes * FOMC JULY * *Robinhood IPO * Earnings: FB PYPL PFE BA Thurs 7/29 * US GDP * UST 7y auction  * Earnings: AMZN Fri 7/30 * EU GDP * EU CPI * EU Unemployment * US Employment Cost Index MoM  * Fed Brainard Speech (first post FOMC)  * China PMI * Earnings: BRK XOM CVX CAT PG Markets via @Weston Nakamura  NKY / TPX ratio…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Good Morning Exchange! Top Posts To Get Your Day Started!
    * Hong Kong & China Equities are getting hammered! @Weston Nakamura takes a deeper dive into what is happening * Lay Of The Land from an ETF Perspective from @Christopher Moir. Check out the post to get a deeper understanding about market sector/factor performance.  * @Michael Arellanes II shares a Q&A from Stan Druckenmiller.  * Tesla earnings are out today. Thanks @Ralph Humphrey for sharing a detailed post regarding the context of what is going on around the company.  * Love this pos…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Tesla's earnings are out today.
    Elon Musk tweeted last week that Tesla will be opening up its charging network to all EVs, which is good because a recent survey revealed that 41% of consumers want their next car to be electric.  A look at the tweet and the overall share of the North American EV charging market Tesla will have is below.   Players in the North American charging market:
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • sam_c
    Any ZYN users here?
    I was listening to @sinstockpapi on a podcast talking about sin stocks and he brought up ZYN.  I have never seen it (sadly not for sale where I am) but it seems like it is becoming popular in the US.  Anyone here using them?  @Brad S are you maybe shipping them? Also since I imagine you stop at gas stations, is it something that you can buy there? how is the shelf space?    Swedish match discussion ==> 45:00-50:00 of the podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sinstockpapi-tobacco-…
    sam_c 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Brad S
  • tiago_m
    Hi everyone, can someone please help me. I think I found a scam related to bitcoin. A Beautiful w...
    Hi everyone, can someone please help me. I think I found a scam related to bitcoin. A Beautiful woman he’s trying to convince me to invest in a strategy that she calls node revenue transaction. She also claims that we need to buy bitcoin at Binance and then send it to Bitocean. To register in this platform she gave the link https://h5.bitocean rad.com. It’s all very strange, what do you guys and girls think? Thank you very much
    Answered tiago_m 1 view 2 comments Most recent by John G
  • Ralph Humphrey
    It looks like a Cultural Revolution of Tech is happening before our eyes.
    China's Tencent ordered to end exclusive music contracts https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/China-s-Tencent-ordered-to-end-exclusive-music-16336690.php JOE McDONALD, AP Business Writer July 23, 2021 Updated: July 23, 2021 8:43 p.m. BEIJING (AP) — Internet giant Tencent was ordered by regulators to end exclusive contracts with music copyright holders, adding to increased enforcement of anti-monopoly and other rules as Beijing tightens control over booming online industries. Tencent control…
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 3 comments Most recent by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Raoul & Julian Special Friday Daily Briefing! Questions?
    Join Ash, Raoul and Julian are they discuss all things in global macro, specifically the rising equity markets and Raoul's expectation of additional stimulus. In this special episode, the guests do a deeper dive into various market happenings. Do you have any questions for the duo to discuss? Please let us know in the replies below! 
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 1 comment Most recent by victor_a
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Here is at look at coronavirus vaccination rates in Japan and the rest of the G7 countries. West...
      (Note: Some daily figures are estimates based on incomplete cumulative data; Source: Our World in Data, World Health Organization, national sources, FT research. Data updated July 22 2021 8.19pm BST.)
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 2 comments Most recent by John H
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Good to the last drop.
    Coffee futures scored their biggest 1-day gain in over 7 years https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coffee-futures-soar-10-score-biggest-1-day-gain-in-over-7-years-11626975809 By Myra P. Saefong Last Updated: July 22, 2021 at 2:21 p.m. ET Coffee futures soared 10% on Thursday, with prices posting their largest single-session gain since early 2014 and their highest settlement in more than six years, as drought and frost threaten coffee crops in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. “…
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • Weston Nakamura
    Delta Hedging Tokyo 2020 Olympics Video: Opening Ceremony Eve w/ Ash Bennington
    https://vimeo.com/578392570Following up on my written post last week “Delta” Hedging 2020 Tokyo Olympics   @Ash Bennington joins me on the eve of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics Opening Ceremony tomorrow (Friday, July 23 2021), for one last overview of the serious (and seriously overlooked) situation on the ground, before we (as a global community) dive into the first real test of where we really are with this pandemic since inception.   Filmed + footage from what should be a vibrant, bustling summer …
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 27 comments Most recent by Ernesto
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Widespread internet outages are being reported including at several financial services firms, Ama...
    INTERNET DOWN - LIVE UPDATES: MAJOR OUTAGE HITS AMAZON, UPS, PLAYSTATION AND DOZENS MORE Andrew Griffin https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/internet-down-update-outage-amazon-b1888831.html Much of the internet has stopped working amid a widespread outage across different apps and websites. Airlines including Delta, online stores such as Amazon, games including Call of Duty, streaming services such as HBO Max and a range of banks were unavailable, according to tracking …
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 3 comments Most recent by John Ahearn
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Good Morning Exchange - Top Posts To Get Your Day Started!
    Lets Get It Started! * Weekly Unemployment Claims report 419k from 398k. @Claudio Delgado posts some charts and color from the unemployment claims report. We had an increase of 51k week over week. Something to think about.  * Nice chart from @Sam Colt showing how inflation expectations have crept into our everyday lives. The freight/packaging charts are something. Thanks Sam.  * It would not be a morning post without a "Lay Of The Land" post from @Christopher Moir. Thank you for your…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov
  • sam_c
    For those of you into inflation
    Unilever inflation expectations
    sam_c 1 view 2 comments Most recent by wissam_a
  • alexey_t
    really loved the NFT series on Realvision Crypto. got interested in projects like marketplaces or...
    really loved the NFT series on Realvision Crypto. got interested in projects like marketplaces or platforms which help mint NFTs. But I'm quite perplexed with how would you get exposure to this space? Of course ETH is one of the solutions, but it's not directly connected to the businesses. Has anyone seen interesting projects that did their own tokens as a way of attracting capital? don't think any of those companies went "public"
    Question alexey_t 6 views 0 comments Started by alexey_t
  • Stefan Clulow
    Milton Berg
    If you haven’t watched it, I recommend the Milton Berg interview.  The man is well-informed and passionate.  Great interview @Jack Farley 
    Stefan Clulow 1 view 1 comment Most recent by jeremiah_s
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Mystery Chart
    What do you think of this chart?  Yea or Nay?
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 15 comments Most recent by Ralph Humphrey
  • khalid_a
    Traditional auction vs. NFT for Steve Jobs first ever job application. This is super interesting....
    Saw this today:  https://www.cityam.com/steve-jobs-1973-application-to-be-auctioned-in-original-format-and-as-an-nft/
    khalid_a 3 views 0 comments Started by khalid_a
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Just a gentle reminder
    As a member of the Exchange, you should know the about the rules of engagement.  The first rule is no promotional material. If you see it, flag it down! We aim to keep an atmosphere that is built on constructive discourse about markets. Let's keep it that way! 
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 3 comments Most recent by Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Get Your Day Started!
    Happy Wednesday Exchange! Here are some posts to get your day started.  * @Christopher Moir updates his ETF Dashboard with a new and catchy name!  * This post from @Ralph Humphrey didn't get much traction yet, but it is an important talking point. A lot of savvy investors follow the money flow of institutional buyers. Ralph breaks down what LC from Omega has been getting into.  * Here is a take from @Victor Martin-Tiscar which goes against the grain of MMT. Interesting read.  * Woah.... Jack,…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 1 comment Most recent by christopher_m
  • Ralph Humphrey
    What's stocks does value investor Leon Cooperman like? I'm glad you asked. He mentioned a coupl...
    Paramount Resources Tourmaline Oil Corp Fiserv (And, he's been right occasionally, and made a few pennies.  Nevertheless, you should do your own homework, and this is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.)
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey
  • sam_c
    Can anyone explain me how comes the yield seems to be too good to be true? This is a Lloyds bond....
    Can anyone explain me how comes the yield seems to be too good to be true? This is a Lloyds bond. Also how do perpetual bonds react to interest rate changes?
    Answered sam_c 8 views 1 comment Most recent by jim_l
  • Ralph Humphrey