Real Vision
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 08/2021Make sure to vote in this week's @Real Vision Exchange survey and determine the direction of the Hive mind portfolio. If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Results will be made available on the weekend. I'll post results here as well as on Twitter. Once we have a decent history of sentiment, I'…
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What a winning trade idea post looks like & How to Boost points: Seahyung Park crushing it on Lon...I know this is still in play for another 1-2 quarters but need to acknowledge & highlight a highly successful trade idea ↓ (beg of Dec’20) “The only market signal that refuses to agree so far is the bond market, with 10 year yields basically trading between 0.5 - 1%. Although the bond market is arguably the smartest, it doesn't seem to be wanting to either confirm or deny what the other markets are pricing in. Thus, until the bond market says "no", will go long this "reflat…
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I read SLV has warned of limited availability of physical silver. iShares Silver Trust may not be...I read SLV has warned of limited availability of physical silver. iShares Silver Trust may not be able to buy enough silver to fully back their newly issued shares temporarily. Any thoughts as to how this may make investment is SLV riskier above the usual risk of price changes in physical silver? I have SLV in my Rollover 401K and in a taxable account. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this matter.
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 7/2021: ResultsResults of last week's survey are in. We added commodities to the asset universe and removed the EUR because it frequently led to confusion regarding the quote currency and also some contradictory results in terms of EUR/USD vs DXY. So, first week for commodities and they already make up 12% in the RealVision Exchange portfolio. What a start! GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE WIZARDRY Executive Summary 1. Market View and Sentiment Short term very positive for commodities and bitcoin as w…
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2Q Conversations with Greg Zuckerman@Moritz Seibert and I decided to launch a dedicated video channel: 2Q Conversations. We have a passion for speaking with, and learning from, interesting people. Interesting because they are bright minds, smart traders, experts in their fields of business, or simply because they hold uncommon or unique views. And you know, it’s even more interesting when these views challenge our own views. We want to have conversations only with great people, and only about great topics. Our guests tend to be…
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Irresponsibly long local German exchanges and market makersAs desribe in our 2Q Focus for February, I'm long specific German exchanges and market makers that are listed on Xetra. These exchanges are getting a large proportion of the retail order flow of the German equivalents to Robinhood. Two examples I also mentioned in the report are Baader Bank (a bankd and market maker at Gettex exchange in Munich) and Lang & Schwarz (market maker at LS Exchange, the electronic trading platform of Hamburg exchange). Both companies are closely connected to neo…
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The Growth Show - The Journey and Vision with RaoulI had never seen this show before but it is really similar to NPR's "How I Built This", which is a podcast that digs into how entrepreneurs think and grow their businesses. Raoul tweeted this out but I thought I would share with everyone on here who didn't see.
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TwoQuants free Focus report February 2021So besides working on the Bot, scraping data from all possible sources, trading our live portfolio on www.twoquants.com AND actually having a full-time job as Portfolio Managers/Traders in an institutional setting, @Moritz Seibert and I decided to launch a monthly report a few weeks back. @Weston Nakamura was already so kind to make kind of an announcements, so we thought it might be nice if we made that report available for everyone on the Exchange. One condition: please sign up for our newsl…
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Konica Minolta Inc (Ticker: 4902)I like Konica Minolta since the dividends are around 5%. I got in at 270Y and hope it'll reach back to the 1100Y. I've been taking the dividends and reinvesting back into 4902. Take a look and let me know what you think . -Kazu Income Ratios Chart
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Engage on the Exchange, Win Stuff…We are excited to announce Influence Points Rewards. Basically, we want to reward you for your amazing contributions, engaging conversations, and all-round quality content on The Exchange. It’s because of you – all of you – that The Exchange is as incredible as it is. So, starting next week, we will be awarding weekly and monthly prizes for the top influence point earners. If you don’t know about Influence Points or how to earn them, check out our Guide to the Exchange. Up for grabs… * … -
Enjoyed this Mike Green Interviewhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8siASXfeyU -
HOWARD MARKS & JOEL GREENBLATT: IS IT DIFFERENT THIS TIME?Marks contends that the current investor optimism is largely a man-made artifact of monetary policy in order to stave off an economic recession. Greenblatt argues that mega-cap tech stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft are reasonably valued despite their remarkable price appreciation. Marks and Greenblatt agree that the Fed’s promise to keep rates low for many years is a true gamechanger in the valuation of assets, and they discuss whether high inflation could change this. Lastly, Marks … -
Commodity producing countries that have their currency pegged to the USD@Raoul Pal and @Edward Harrison can you please bring in someone that can talk about the following issue: What happens to the currencies of the commodity producing countries that have their currency pegged to the dollar if the dollar looses its reserve status? You have a country like Saudia Arabia for example that has a peg to the dollar but low reserves and is dependent on the US for security. You also have a country like Malaysia that has a peg with low foreign reserves but not reliant as Sau…
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Mutation-Resistant Vaccine a Gamechanger?Not to "pump" a stock, but this seems genuinely impactful for $NK and the rest of the world... https://ir.nantkwest.com/news-releases/news-release-details/immunitybio-and-nantkwest-announce-fda-authorization-study-had5 -
MUST SEE CONTENTIf you are a Plus or Pro member who skipped or was planning to skip this interview because you don't know who Ophir Gottlieb is, I urge you to PLEASE WATCH. I was absolutely floored by his insight and framework for investing. He discusses three actionable ideas yes, but the real gem in this interview was Ophir himself. I've been following him for a while but finally getting to speak to him and really getting to see how he thinks was incredible. Oh, and his returns are spectacular. -
I'd like to learn how to calculate the position size for a tail hedge to a portfolio using option...I'd like to learn how to calculate the position size for a tail hedge to a portfolio using options. Is there a basic article or is this an extremely complicated process? -
Video in Review- discussion w/ @Seth Dingle@Seth Dingle , a Real Vision Exchange community member with a wealth of knowledge about trend following, joins Sebastian Moonjava, Real Vision associate crypto editor, for a discussion about one of RV cryptos most recent videos "HOW DIEM (FORMERLY LIBRA) IS IMPROVING FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND MOBILITY" . Let us know if you have any thoughts or questions about the video, or about our discussion here on The Exchange. The end of this video covers some questions from the previous Video Rev…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 07/2021Make sure to vote in this week's @Real Vision Exchange survey. The bullishness on equities and Bitcoin from last week is currently paying off nicely. Of course the Exchange is still ahead but the Bot was at least able to overtake the S&P again. I made a change to the survey. Because of the confusion with currencies I removed the EURUSD from the universe and instead added Commodities. I got a lot of requests to include them, as the asset class was clearly not represented. Of course, it…
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Recession/Depression Escape Strategy & Maybe an Answer to Wealth Inequality: Thought Experiment ...I would like to propose a thought experiment...I literally thought of this 10 minutes ago, so it's a rough draft: In order to stimulate the economy out of recessions/depressions, what if every citizen was given equal amounts of fiscal stimulus cash AND an equivalent debt payment credit at the same time (on regular intervals). It may or may not require an expiration date...not sure yet. I assume it would have to be a central bank cryptocurrency or something like that to make this work…
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Own Your EnemyIn response to @Jaymes Rosenthal ’s latest video post (and meant to do this for a while but forgot/just reminded) Everyone: * What is your enemy that you need to own? * What part of your portfolio do you hate? (“nothing” = not good, add hate allocation ASAP) ↓ clip from The Discourse episode 2 on owning your enemy https://vimeo.com/510942468See The Discourse episode 2 w/ @Jaymes Rosenthal here * Trading 20 > VIX < 80 * Trading for work vs Investing for life * Don’t avoid your en…
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Am I insane for seeing what I think I see here...? SP500(in USD)*DXY/M2 [added 2nd chart with m...Am I insane for seeing what I think I see here...? SP500(in USD)*DXY/M2 [added 2nd chart with moving averages (monthly intervals)].....[now added 3rd chart (weekly interval), see neckline] NOTE: The 4th chart, which includes GDP, is experimental for the sake of discussion.
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Even covid started buying dips!I’ve been carefully cautioning the eventuality of these new variants to spread amongst apparently the most susceptible hosts in the world. In a world catalyzing information to its most granular parameter, there will always be answers too blatant to accept. -
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Dollar StrengthHi Raoul I might just get shot for this one but here it is. The risk of event on dollar is preparing the dollar to strengthen, the liquidity pool had been dipped in twice from the weekly perspective, dollar strength from today/tomorrow and will go to first terminal at 93.215, second terminal, 99.305..............might eventually pick up passengers at 114.545.(Shocked me as well, that area has tremendous interest) Narrative : Dollar to strengthen, Gold to dip into 1575, EURUSD to 1.18200 sliding…
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Is Barrick Gold a screaming buy at these levels?Is Barrick Gold a screaming buy at these levels?
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MARK CUBAN: WHAT THIS FED-DRIVEN BUBBLE LAYS BARE – TECTONIC SHIFTS IN MARKETS AND THE FINANCIAL ...Famed investor and entrepreneur Mark Cuban, star of Shark Tank, joins Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal to make sense of the changing market structure and the disruption of the financial establishment. Cuban sees tokenization and blockchain bringing more transparency to the financial industry and remains bullish on Bitcoin as a store of value and reserve asset. He also praises stimulus efforts but sees political partisanship as a major risk to fixing the dichotomy between Main Street and Wa…
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Cahodes with Jason Buck on Short Selling in the current environment.https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/marc-cohodes-the-stock-market-is-not-a-game?source_collection=b57c7eabfc3945a5a3b2b72f7bc45735 I tend to shy away from stock-specific stuff. I don't trade individual stocks and I am very much a generalist when it comes to markets and about as far from a fundamental analysis practitioner as it gets. I ended up listening to this today while in the car just because it was in the Real Vision podcast que on my phone. It was really one of the bet… -
Chevron underperformance?$CVX up 2.90%, but COP up 5.70& and XOM up 4.47%. Rally obviously tied to reflation narrative and oil price surge. But why the underperformance of $CVX today?
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 6/2021: ResultsElon bought some Bitcoin. No big thing right? Except that the Exchange Hive mind portfolio is currently long 27.7% Bitcoin, based on last week's survey...this is going to be an interesting week! Otherwise, for first readers: This is the weekly summary of last week's Real Vision Exchange sentiment survey, which is open from Wednesday until Saturday each week and asks participants about their expectation of market performance over the next 1 month and 3 months. You find the weekly survey here (…
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How old is "The US day trader?"Looks like the 77% is younger than 36. 👀 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-03/u-s-day-traders-mostly-male-and-under-35-cardify-finds-chart
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I'd love to hear anyone's thoughts on TLT March call options, specifically the timeframe. I'm ge...I'd love to hear anyone's thoughts on TLT March call options, specifically the timeframe. I'm getting antsy and considering buying June calls. Any other hedges other than crypto? Cheers!!
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So how does one change their credit card for membership to RV? I don't see that functionality on...So how does one change their credit card for membership to RV? I don't see that functionality on the site. -
COVID-19This is an image of COVID-19 viral capsids which I took through my microscope with an iPhone. The brown circles are the virus inside of a human lung autopsy sample. The blue circles are lung cells stained with hematoxylin as a counter stain. We speak about COVID and articulate about its impact on world economies, and, most importantly, on lives around the world. It's rare to actually see it. If you would like the actual protocol and how I ran the immunohistochemistry experiment, I'd be happy…
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Synthetic equities in Defi to access frontier markets?Curious on the Hive's thoughts/experience with synthetic stocks in DeFi? I'm thinking of DApps like Mirror. * Can/do we really understand the risks of synthetic stocks on blockchains (operational/tech/tracking risk/oracles/game theory/arbs)? * Should these derivatives be discounted to the "real" stocks? * Could these synthetics be used to gain access to frontier markets?
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📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE: Feb 2021, Issue #02Download the newest edition of Inside the Hive Mind, Feb 2021 ! https://vimeo.com/508928201In this issue: • The Exchange had discussed a long GME trade on a massive short squeeze that would rival VW in ‘08 - back in Oct’20. Exchange also had the foresight for the WSB army - also since Oct’20. •An overview of Jan, the month that put retail investors front and center •The Exchange‘s View on Meme Names •Brokerage Risk •The Hive Mind Portfolio Review (spoiler alert - were still crushing it)…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 06/2021Make sure to vote in this week's @Real Vision Exchange survey. Last week's de-risking in sentiment in the survey allowed the Real Vision Bot, which is based on the pure interview sentiment, to catch up a bit initially (he was more risk on - long S&P). However his large VIX allocation soon destroyed his early profits. Meanwhile the Exchange performed very well due to the spike in Bitcoin, where participants kept their exposure more or less unchanged (they moved out of equities but kept Bitco…
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RVDB: THE MAYOR OF MIAMI ON BLOCKCHAIN AND BEN HUNT ON COVID-19, THE FED, AND HOW “NOT TO BE THE ...In the first segment, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal speaks to the mayor of Miami, Francis X. Suarez, about his plans to attract talent, jobs, capital, and “anchor tenants” to Miami as well as his embrace of blockchain technology. Mayor Suarez can be found on Twitter at @FrancisSuarez. In the main segment, senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory, about the ways in which the United States can better protect itself from the scourge of COVID-19. Hunt acknowledges…
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OPPOSING VIEWS: POMP & MIKE GREEN ON BITCOINMike Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Logica Capital, and Anthony Pompliano, investor at Pomp Investments, join Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss their opposing views on Bitcoin. They each explain their views on Bitcoin—Pompliano makes the case for Bitcoin being a store of value that should be widely adopted and encouraged by the United States in order to stay competitive globally while Green asserts that Bitcoin is used primarily for nefarious activity and i…
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Jimmy boy...@Jaymes Rosenthal is a must follow here... the best videos and the one of the core players of The Hive mind... He also knows how to make Campari.. -
Outside-the-boxThinking out loud -- if we were to launch a show where we focused on outside-the-box business topics... what would you like to learn about and who would you like to hear from? Could be wine, fitness, art, frontier markets, digital education, VC, private equity, frontier markets, the list goes on...
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Calling on the Hive Mind. What indicators do you see on the horizon? What do you need? What am I ...We're looking forward to April to determine what we think are the most pressing themes for 90 days and beyond. What do you see that we and others may not? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N2fpCp39Lk
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Hi there, I am looking for concrete/quantitative examples of hedging strategy for a 100k retail p...Hi there, I am looking for concrete/quantitative examples of hedging strategy for a 100k retail portfolio. I understand every investor and portfolio are different, but I am curious about how you do it: For example if you have SPX, VIX or TLT options, how many, at which strike price, when do they expire?
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MARC COHODES: “THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT A GAME”Jason Buck of The Mutiny Fund interviews famed short-seller Marc Cohodes of Alder Lane Farm pulls no punches as he diagnoses the true culprits behind the exponential volatility in stocks such as GameStop: extreme leverage and the hedge funds who use it in order to juice returns. Cohodes argues that hedge funds like Point72 and Melvin Capital are creating significant systemic risk for all market participants, most notably themselves, and he congratulates the retail trades on r/WallStreetBets but…
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Can I buy CORN ETF (Teucrium) if I am in the UK? I read there are some rules around buying US ETF...Can I buy CORN ETF (Teucrium) if I am in the UK? I read there are some rules around buying US ETFs if you are in Europe. Help much appreciated
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LIQUIDITY WITHOUT SOLVENCY: INVESTING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CURRENT CREDIT MARKET ENVIRONMENT · Fe...Dan Zwirn, CEO and CIO of Arena Investors, returns to Real Vision to provide a strategic update on the world of credit. In this interview with Real Vision’s managing editor, Ed Harrison, Zwirn explains how, in a world of suppressed interested rates by monetary authorities such as the Federal Reserve, companies that are effectively underwater nevertheless manage to secure financing at attractive rates. Harrison and Zwirn discuss this phenomenon of “liquidity without solvency” in depth, comparing…
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THE MACRO “ENDGAME”: GROWTH, GOLD, DEFLATION, AND THE DOLLAR : Eric Basmajian and Lyn AldenEric Basmajian, founder and editor at EPB Macro Research, joins Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy to break down his near-term outlook on the global economy as well his longer-term framework for macro investing. Basmajian notes that the growth rate in industrial output, the pick-up in demand for commodities, and a steepening yield curve indicate a growth pick-up. Alden and Basmajian explore the significance of the underperformance of banks (particularly regional ones) and energy relativ…
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THE SPAC BOOM APEX, MARKET MEMES, AND THE BIGGEST OPPORTUNITIES IN TECH : Josh Wolfe and Michael ...Because of their favorable structure, SPACs have become the vehicle of choice for founders and venture capitalists to bring private startups to the public market—even with the explosion of SPACs in 2020, we are already on record setting pace in 2021. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital breaks down exactly why the SPAC structure is so favorable and argues that the knock-on effect of an M&A boom will produce the modern equivalent of the AOL-Time Warn…
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Emergency Market Update from RaoulThe combination of market maker positioning, hedge fund positioning, retail positioning, excessive leverage, market technicals, and real economic risk from COVID are the biggest set of sell signals @Raoul Pal has ever seen, and although he understands why everyone is jumping on the current anti-establishment narratives around Robinhood, he believes people are missing the bigger story here of unprecedented market risk. All the stars are aligning, and Raoul is extremely concerned about what cou…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 5/2021: ResultsWhile financial markets still have to process last week's action, the Real Vision Bot has done his job evaluating last week's Exchange survey. He even found time for a special question: which of the famous wallstreetbets stocks do the Exchange members have in their portfolio? Turns out that participants either stayed rational and did not get involved at all or at least closed out their positions (or were forced out). As the survey was open from Wednesday to Saturday morning, all of these could …
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Weekly Roundup Special Edition: ‘Hoodies Get Evenhttps://vimeo.com/506736006 Experts: @Jeremiah S @Sam Colt @Max Wiethe @Jack Farley @Farrell Murphy Mentioned RV Video Content, Exchange Activity, Resources: Best Video to Understand This Historic Week: RVDB Fri Jan 29 Gamestop Gamma Wall w/ @Ash Bennington , @Edward Harrison @Jack Farley & guest Lily Francus Lily Francus-nope_its_lily ← brilliant Jim Bianco & Ed Harrison Tackle GME AMC & Inflation RVDB Jan 27 w/ @Max Wiethe @Edward Harrison - Ed Nails the GenZ Trad…
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Lost all the saved videos in My Videos!Hi all, Has anyone else lost all of their saved "My Videos." I have checked off each of the videos I've seen. Now I have nothing in My Videos and when I view videos I've seen they're indicating that I haven't seen them. This is really bad. Has something been reset on the backend!? It took me ages to watch those and keep track of what I've seen. What do I do now?
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Tracking the GameStop Money Flow - Gamma Squeeze ExplainedIn this episode of "The Breakdown," @Nick Correa and I are joined by special guest and derivatives expert @Weston Nakamura (you may know him simply as "king bee of the hive mind"). What do we talk about? Duh. GameStop. Weston breaks down the market mechanics of the "Gamma squeeze" and how the creation of new ever-higher strike prices is integral to the stohnk going nuclear. We filmed this Wednesday afternoon, "just after market close" (as @Ash Benningt… -
Another Boomer (Ray Dalio) is in on BitcoinsI'm pretty sure most here are already radicalized and some irresponsibily long BTC so this isn't really for you but for those that are interested. Ray D (who had a bad 2020) felt the need to write about BTC (means a lot of people must have asked him). https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/ray-dalio-what-i-think-of-bitcoin
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 05/2021You are probably either busy piling into GME or pondering the next move of the wallstreetbet crowd. Anyway, would be great if you could take a minute to participate in this week's @Real Vision Exchange survey. Since the topic of the week is overshorted underdog stocks I even included a little question on current "hot" wallstreetbets stocks. Let's see how exposed survey participants are to that selection of recently quite well performing equities. And yes, I've been both: short and th…
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What are the best vehicles for retail investors to enter the bond market?What are the best vehicles for retail investors to enter the bond market?
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Additional info for the RV video "The Power of the Dollar"Looks like RV has a new educational series, after popular demand, and one episode is about "The Dollar" ==> The Power of the Dollar For those that want more, especially about the dollar smile, check out Episode 2 of the "Explain to me like I am a Golden retriever Series" with @Lisa Gee & @Seahyung Park Here is an extra Graph "the History of the US Dollar" And since the video also talks about the Dollar effect on EM & commodities: Qu…
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Learning Futures Trading - on my to do list this yearWould anybody on the exchange be willing to explain to me how futures trading works? I am happy to go through a simple corn futures trade. Even a small pdf with all the basics would be really appreciated. Seeing how La Nina is happening, the Hog Herd being built in China and a possible supply shortage occurring, I have the suspicion that the price will go up. I've heard timing is important in futures but not sure how that should affect my trade. Help is REALLY APPRECIATED
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1 in 5 chance Gold Isn't that safe haven YouTubers say it is 🤓Interesting Graph from Man Group, The Bond Problem The question the ask is; given super low yields, should you replace the Bonds with gold? Well its not a simple yes or no but they provide this interesting graph showing how gold and SNP returns are related. and Correlation trend is not your friend, Kind of mirrors what I saved before: The above are screenshots from a report called: "US Economic Outlook & Implications of Current Policies for Inflation…
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How comes Japan E-Commerce penetration is so low? (granted these are 2019 numbers but still...)How comes Japan E-Commerce penetration is so low? (granted these are 2019 numbers but still...)
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 4/2021: ResultsHere are last week's @Real Vision Exchange survey results. Bitcoin sentiment came down a lot and overall it looks like the survey is catching a breath. The portfolio holds its main positions but switched off some of the tiny bets in currencies. If you are looking to do your own analysis with the numbers on the Bot's dashboard, you can download the values in each chart as a csv by clicking the little gear box that's at the top right of each chart. GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE WIZARDRY …
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LIVE at 11am EST: Steven Van Metre & Michael Ashton - Ask Me AnythingSteven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial is back with Michael Ashton, founder of Enduring Investments, to go further in-depth on and answer audience questions about inflation. Van Metre and Ashton review what they’ve previously discussed and clarify their thoughts on the impact of inflation on gold, wages, and wealth disparity. They also tackle money velocity and interest rates, the penalty incurred for holding cash, the differences between global inflation and national inflation, and mor…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 04/2021This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live! Make sure to participate and tell the Bot your market outlook and position. If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY Additional information: The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Results will be made available on the weekend. I'll post results here as well as on Twitter. Once we have …
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The Discourse: Failing at Success w/ Jeremiah Seidman & Han RheeThis was originally produced and intended as a special edition of the Discourse, as I tap into the Exchange to proactively extract value that I need from @Jeremiah S & @Han S Rhee for my trade idea: Long Sunpower Corp (SPWR) for a short squeeze, trigger catalyst - Joe Biden’s speech during US presidential inauguration. Only thing is, stock rallied +18% yesterday. Thereby making our video somewhat useless.. BUT - I will not let allow for collaborative minds put together to generate nea…
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Thesis/ paper Topic for the RV College StudentIf I would have to write a paper or thesis now for Uni I think id write something titled: "The impact of social media and popular culture on financial stock and investment strategies" You could spend your time looking at Twitter and /wsb and analyse price movements of the popular Stonks like, TSLA, Signal, GME (gamestop) , BB, Hertz, SPACE, PENN and probably a bunch of other stocks and perhaps also Bitcoin. Who knows you might get to intern for an Investor Relation team to hel…
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MMT for Dummies by Joe Weisenthalhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-01-19/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day
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Animation: How Bitcoin/Blockchain works under the hoodhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FJPgVdF5kY
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Exchange Special Edition RVDB: ASK ME ANYTHING WITH “THE YOUNG BUCKS”@Max Wiethe and @Jack Farley source questions from Real Vision members via The Exchange in this special, pre-recorded edition of The Real Vision Daily Briefing. Max and Jack discuss everything from how quantitative easing impacts the economy, to who their favorite contributors are, to how the evolution of their macro frameworks have evolved as a result of working at Real Vision. In addition to sharing their thoughts on stocks, bonds, and crypto, Max and Jack consider how their relatively young …
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BTC: Bullish continuation pattern OR bearish double-top?OK hive community / all technical charting experts. This is BTC on a daily chart. Is this a classic symmetrical triangle - indicating a bullish continuation pattern after consolidation? OR is this a bearish 'double top', indicating trend exhaustion? Thanks in advance for your opinions! CC @Weston Nakamura @Raoul Pal @Ash Bennington @Edward Harrison
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Moar Vol and VIX with Jason Buck and Ben EifertJason Buck and Tyler Pearson have been talking to a handful of Volatility traders on RV. Jason recently interviewed Ben Eifert who has amassed quite a following on twitter and also runs a fund called QVR. Their conversation is quite a sandwich (24 pages or 1h16 min of podcast) but fun quite insightful. Since the topic of Vol is quite complicated and filled with jargon so I used Otter.ai to make a transcript of the interview. The transcript is like 95 ish % correct, so the spelling can be of…
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Shorting the Russell 2000 (IWM) via a bear put ladder spread (August expiry)* SHORT Russell 2000 (IWM) via an August Bear put ladder spread going long the 220 put contract and short the 185 and 180 put contracts for a debit of $5.20. * Hold duration until August expiration or IWM reaching 185. * Max profit is 29.80. Breakeven is at 214.80. R/R = 5.73 * I suspect August is more than enough time for the Russell to have at least a 12-15% correction after such a strong run. Even Jeremy Grantham believes this is a bubble and should pop by late spring to summer.
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Exchange Exclusive: Weekend RoundupTopics: The Dollar, Inflation. With @Jack Farley & @Weston Nakamura Interviews covered: Jeff Snider, Steven Van Metre, Michael Ashton, Carly Fiorina Exchange Activity: Weston Nakamura, Seth Dingle https://vimeo.com/501506544RV Videos from the Week Referenced (links) •Jeffrey Snider and Ed Harrison THE DOLLAR’S BLAZING CRASH, TREASURY MARKET DESTRUCTION, AND WESTERN SOCIETY’S UNGENTLE IMPLOSION (click link here) •Steven Van Metre and Michael Ashton EVERYTHING YOU WANTED TO KNO…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 3/2021: ResultsHere are last week's @Real Vision Exchange survey results. As an additional question we asked participants about the positioning in their Cryptocurrency portfolio. See below for some interesting insights. If you are looking to do your own analysis with the numbers on the Bot's dashboard, you can download the values in each chart as a csv by clicking the little gear box that's at the top right of each chart. GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE WIZARDRY Executive Summary * Gold sentimen…
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EVERYTHING YOU WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT INFLATION@Steven Van Metre interviews Michael Ashton, founder of Enduring Investments. Ashton thinks that the Consumer Price Index is an imperfect metric but is nevertheless an optimal way to measure inflation. He argues that the extraordinary growth in money stock (induced by the Federal Reserve) will indeed augur inflation. Van Metre contends that various deflationary forces, namely the decrease in the velocity of money, will stop inflation in its tracks and could in fact bring deflation. CLICK TO WA…
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Delusional Mania leading to a Train Wreck?Looking over at 25 years of Russell 2000 history, the magnitude and timing of the current move up from the March 2020 bottom is unparalleled. I've identified all the big moves with minimal to no pullbacks, and none of them have moved up so sharply and quickly. You can see the percentage rise and number of days for each move. Interestingly, each of those moves was followed by a minimum 4-6 month decline (either a correction or an official bear market). And as we can see it took several more …
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The coming train wreck in the Russell 2000. Comparing the time length & magnitude of prior sharp...Looking over at 25 years of Russell 2000 history, the magnitude and timing of the current move up from the March 2020 bottom is unparalleled. I've identified all the big moves with minimal to no pullbacks, and none of them have moved up so sharply and quickly. You can see the percentage rise and number of days for each move. Interestingly, each of those moves was followed by a minimum 4-6 month decline (either a correction or an official bear market). And as we can see it took several more …
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"Something of Value" by Howard MarksA great memo from Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital for those who haven't reviewed already - definitely worth a read: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
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Basel IIIAre there any plans for a video on Basel III rules and how it will impact the gold market? I understand that from Jan 2022 bullion banks will not be able to to trade unallocated gold, and that will have a large positive impact on the gold price. Cheers!
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Could Ash do a video with a brief summary of the alt-coins he's got on his radar, with a bit of b...Could Ash do a video with a brief summary of the alt-coins he's got on his radar, with a bit of background, use-cases and context to each one? Or a specific alts feature/campaign possibly? Cheers!
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Everyone- PLEASE take 30 seconds & fill out the Exchange portfolio surveythis is by far the most important week to see how/what we did. Our most concentrated consensus long took a huge hit + theres like.. no POTUS at the helm. Need to know if/how we acted/reacted week over week. I know I say ”this ones mandatory” but this one is really mandatory. < 30 seconds. (and follow @Moritz Heiden , so I don’t have to copy paste from his posts ↓ ) Real Vision Exchange Survey 03/2021 This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live! Make sure to participate and tell the…
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Evolution of TAXES in the US per income bracketAmerican's unlike Italians, really do pay their taxes. But me being non American have no idea how the US taxmachine works except that it's a big complicated topic and nobody in Murica seems happy about it. While I am reading this I think this data is already worth sharing. https://www.ntu.org/library/doclib/2020/12/2018-who-pays-1-.pdf You got to look at this from bottom to top.
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 03/2021This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live! Make sure to participate and tell the Bot your market outlook and position. I included a special topic this week given the recent interest: Positioning on Cryptocurrencies. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. Additional information: The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Results w…
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Not sure I understand the wider context and the industry, though does any body have a view on the...Not sure I understand the wider context and the industry, though does any body have a view on the risk of the direction of travel this could trigger and the current bull run.....https://youtu.be/dNTbTsCCmSI
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NEED YOUR HELP - Ask me anything with me and Max WietheThe "young bucks" @Max Wiethe and I will be filming an "ask me anything" Real Vision Daily Briefing that airs next Monday. What would you like to know?
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Long synthetic CSI 300 ETF vs short physical CSI 300 ETF* DIRECTION & SECURITY: Long synthetic CSI 300 ETF, e.g. Xtrackers CSI300 Swap UCITS ETF, Short physical CSI 300 ETF, eg. L&G E Fund MSCI China A UCITS ETF * HOLDING DURATION: multi-year, until demand for shorting physical A-shares decreases * EXPECTED RETURN: Judging from history, 3-7% p.a., rather a bit more as spread has widened over the last years. * MAX RISK: Counterparty risk on the synthetic leg * Brief thesis: Synthetic ETFs on China A shares (e.g. CSI 300) show a yield pickup v…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 2/2021: ResultsHere are last week's @Real Vision Exchange survey results with a little bit of a delay. As you might have noticed, markets were a little bit busy today. Another thing that came up yesterday and kept me a little bit busy was the recap of the Exchange Portfolio's performance WITHOUT Bitcoin. So I'll start with some useful links here: * @Christopher Moir summarizes my post on the Echanges - BTC portfolio here * @Weston Nakamura put my comment into a separate post, where I show why even without …
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So Raoul has recently talked about the risks of a new lockdown once Biden gets into office. But I...So Raoul has recently talked about the risks of a new lockdown once Biden gets into office. But I've also heard people say how it will be hard to convince red states to do this. How does federal vs state powers work in this situation in the US (I'm from Australia so am not as familiar with US system as most)? Can Biden force republican states to lock down?
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‘20 RV Exchange Portfolio Modeled WITHOUT BTCIn the comments under my post of Inside the Hive Mind issue 01,@Christopher Moir asked @Moritz Heiden to model the Exchange Portfolio ex-BTC (given BTC’s overweighting + outperformance). Moritz’s “running back to the lab” and producing results + super comprehensive and insightful analysis & commentary “in response“ (purely voluntary, institutional-grade work with a few hours turnaround time on a weekend prompted by one person’s expressed curiosity) is a) why Moritz is 2020 Financial Exp…
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Has anyone looked whether there is a historical evidence of an inflection point where rising infl...Has anyone looked whether there is a historical evidence of an inflection point where rising inflation rates render even usually good inflation hedges relatively inept?
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Anyone that can share the link to make purchases for REALVIIONS products, meaning t-shirt's, hats...Anyone that can share the link to make purchases for REALVIIONS products, meaning t-shirt's, hats etc.. Thank you
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What is the bull scenario for the dollar? What is the bear scenario for the dollar?What is the bull scenario for the dollar? What is the bear scenario for the dollar?
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📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE: Jan 2021, Issue #01Download the Inaugural Issue #1 of The Exchange's Monthly Report (Attached) https://vimeo.com/498389590TABLE OF CONTENTS * THE EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO * THE EXCHANGE WINNERS OF THE YEAR * FUN STATS * A LOOK BACK AT 2020: MY JOURNEY WITH THE EXCHANGE * THE EXCHANGE Q1 IS DONE: NOW WHAT?
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Ken Rogoff's Ideological Pretzel & The Question: Why are Interest Rates So Persistently Low?For anyone who hasn't yet viewed the Brookings Institution video from the 2nd of December, entitled "Fiscal Policy Advice for Joe Biden and Congress", I highly recommend doing so. Here's a link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cVAW0PkAaQFrom around minute 49 of the video, you can delight in a display of extreme mental gymnastics from some of the most preeminent mainstream economists of our age. Most notable are those performed by Ken Rogoff, who now appears to have completely forgo…
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The Exchange Fantasy Trading ChallangeLet's have a little investing competition. It's basic stuff, ETF's, stocks and crypto. (sadly only US listed) https://www.wealthbase.com/invites/f1f6eb9d-a9c1-4856-8ba2-cb95f0f9a255/join If you have no ideas it's possible to replicate the RV bot allocation 😬 The winner gets 2 large Pizzas and a Six-Pack 🍕🍻 If you are first place and beat the NDX ill send you an extra price (probably a hat "Honk for Bitcoin"😂) In the odd event that I win, second place gets the price ✅ @Westo…
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What are good resources for Data and charts? Specifically for the United Kingdom.What are good resources for Data and charts? Specifically for the United Kingdom.
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When your Brain going full apocalypse but the market isn't, write it down.Two Tweets related to what our little monkey brain thinks the market will do and what the market actually did.
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Take < 30 seconds & do this week's RV Exchange Portfolio Surveylink to survey here and follow @Moritz Heiden directly for reminders/results and color on the results every week. Watch in case you missed it: The Discourse 2020 Finale: Moritz Heiden, Two Quants
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 02/2021This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live! Make sure to participate and tell the Bot your market outlook and position CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these HERE. Additional information: The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Results will be made available on the weekend. I'll post results here as well as on Twitter. Once we have a decent history of sentiment, I…
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