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Discussion List

  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Get Your Day Started!
    Happy Wednesday Exchange! Here are some posts to get your day started.  * @Christopher Moir updates his ETF Dashboard with a new and catchy name!  * This post from @Ralph Humphrey didn't get much traction yet, but it is an important talking point. A lot of savvy investors follow the money flow of institutional buyers. Ralph breaks down what LC from Omega has been getting into.  * Here is a take from @Victor Martin-Tiscar which goes against the grain of MMT. Interesting read.  * Woah.... Jack,…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 1 comment Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    What's stocks does value investor Leon Cooperman like? I'm glad you asked. He mentioned a coupl...
    Paramount Resources Tourmaline Oil Corp Fiserv (And, he's been right occasionally, and made a few pennies.  Nevertheless, you should do your own homework, and this is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.)
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey Real Vision
  • sam_c
    Can anyone explain me how comes the yield seems to be too good to be true? This is a Lloyds bond....
    Can anyone explain me how comes the yield seems to be too good to be true? This is a Lloyds bond. Also how do perpetual bonds react to interest rate changes?
    Answered sam_c 8 views 1 comment Most recent by jim_l Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • david_g
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Good Morning Exchange!
    Good Morning From EST US. US Futures are stabilizing a bit after a couple of bad back to back days with small caps taking it on the chin. Treasuries however have continued to rally with the 10 year trading below the 1.15 level. US 10 Year Yield - Bloomberg Traders have been eying this range for a while as this happens to be the 50% retracement from the reflation trade peak. Something to keep an eye on as yields have driven a lot of the risk flow over the last couple of weeks. Top Posts …
    Petr Pinkhasov 4 views 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Here's a look at trends in select emerging market countries among individuals who have been fully...
    (Note: Some daily figures are estimates based on incomplete cumulative data and is as of 7-19-2021. Source: Our World in Data, World Health Organization, national sources, FT research)
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 4 comments Most recent by John Ahearn Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Was this underreported, or did I just miss it?
    First COVID-19 case could have emerged in China in Oct 2019 - study https://www.reuters.com/world/china/first-covid-19-case-could-have-hit-china-oct-2019-study-2021-06-25/ "SHANGHAI, June 25 (Reuters) - The virus that causes COVID-19 could have started spreading in China as early as October 2019, two months before the first case was identified in the central city of Wuhan, a new study showed on Friday. Researchers from Britain's University of Kent used methods from conservation science …
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 2 comments Most recent by John S Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Petr & Weston: Markets Today & Week Ahead
    https://vimeo.com/[email protected] Pinkhasov and I just give some broad overview thoughts on the markets today and our near term view during a global risk-off session.  Posts mentioned from the Exchange: @Christopher Moir ETF Land - Monday 19th July 2021  @Matt Daniell X-24 19th July 2021. @Petr Pinkhasov Post CPI Global Technicals @Weston Nakamura Charts: Meme crash → Russell2k crash → UST yields crash → crypto crash. Incomplete / late market note Also as we approach Opening Ceremony on Fr…
    Weston Nakamura 2 views 11 comments Most recent by john_c Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Weekly Influence Points Winners!
    Boom! Markets might be in turmoil but perhaps a distraction to go get some Real Vision swag might good for this week's Influence Points Winners! Congrats! Remember you can win the weekly prize once a quarter and the monthly one every 6 months. @Ralph Humphrey  @Christopher Moir  @Claudio Delgado  In case you forgot: Our Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details …
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Happy Monday! Morning Brief and Top Posts To Check Out!
    S&P 500 Futures Trading Low Stocks trading sharply lower this morning as the spread of the Covid-19 variant dubbed "Delta" has put a shadow over the economic recovery. Yields have also traded lower with the 10 year at 1.22% Here are some posts to get your Monday started.  * @Florian Strauf shares the dynamics around the economics of tokens, or tokenomics. Some great flow charts and resources even for the laymen of crypto.  * Another must-read X-24 series post from @Matt Danie…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 4 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • simon_b
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes: Episode 3
    https://vimeo.com/575952786In this episode: •Brand new used cars •The Brad Breakfast Index •The Other “Chip” Shortage •Pics from the Road - pipes, glass, Tesla juice Please us know what you’re seeing out there too - related to any of the above or not! And as always - thank you for your feedback and participation! (By the way, while @Brad S is wearing his “Irresponsibly Long” tshirt, I’m wearing my Japanese version I had made - “Irresponsible Buy & Hold” to be exact)   Previous Episod…
    Weston Nakamura 7 views 25 comments Most recent by Brad S Real Vision
  • jason_b
    Who likes 'S' curves
    User growth lookS SeriouSly Strong...
    jason_b 1 view 1 comment Most recent by claudio_d Real Vision
  • sam_c
    Boss left on vacation, her boss is on vacation I got an hour to kill what can you reccomend me fr...
    Boss left on vacation, her boss is on vacation I got an hour to kill what can you reccomend me from RV?
    Answered sam_c 1 view 3 comments Most recent by max_w Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Happy Friday!
    What A Week! Here Are Some Top Posts To Check Out To Get Your Day Started! Lay Of The Land This Week - Stocks, Bonds, Crude, Bitcoin * @Brad S shares some interesting tidbits regarding Uber's involvement in the trucking world. I would always be listening to Brad when things cross paths with his domain. * @Sat Phull found an article that shows how one company is looking to bridge the gap between optimal software integration with hardware. Nice find, Sat. * Wissam provides a thought provokin…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov Real Vision
  • jason_b
    Potential for policy mistakes
    At the current moment we are at a crossroads.  Do we continue to allow the tidal wave of liquidity that was created last March continue to do its thing, or do we need some sort of tap of the breaks as a perfunctory acknowledgement of the to the inflationary forces of that wave? There is no clear choice, and it seems clear that FCP is pretty good at walking the line.  As the leprechaun runs the cliff His instinct will be to push slightly higher as the implications of downward movement are too d…
    jason_b 3 views 0 comments Started by jason_b Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    What might the 1918 Pandemic tell us about wage inflation?
    Wage inflation tends to be sticky.  Here is a chart that measures how much the average person's pay can buy of the S&P 500 over time.  As the line rises, more of the S&P 500 can be bought, and as it declines, the opposite.  You can see a sharp rise after the 1918 Pandemic.  This might tell us something going forward.
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 8 comments Most recent by ross_m Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Going Through Charts w/ Petr Episode 2
    Time To Plunge Into The Charts! Join me on a quick and dirty dive into the murky waters of small caps and treasury yields. Feel free to shoot me a message if you have any questions or just reply below! https://vimeo.com/575575913Charts Mentioned: Crude Oil Crude / 10 Year Yields IWM/QQQ Ratio vs 10 Year Yields KWEB BABA
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 2 comments Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • Jonathan Kim
    The SP500 has been running on logarithmic linear regression lines for the past 90 years since the...
    All of the data mankind has outputted for the past 90 years quantified into a single, beautiful chart.
    Jonathan Kim 1 view 12 comments Most recent by claudio_d Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Top Posts To Check Out This Morning!
    Good Morning From The US Open! Here are the top posts you should check out this morning. * Busy day ahead, says @Claudio Delgado. Certainly looks to be the case with the vast amount of economic data on the horizon today.  * Lay of the land through ETF's - thank you @Christopher Moir for updating the dashboard and providing a lot of awesome color / context to the ideas. * @Matt Daniell gives us the breakdown in what's happening in the Asia-Pac markets. Also trying out a new name for the series…
    Petr Pinkhasov 2 views 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    "Delta" Hedging 2020 Tokyo Olympics
    By the time you read this, the situation on the ground with regards to the Tokyo Olympics will have changed from when this was written. In fact, by the time you finish reading this, the story will have evolved from when you started reading. This is the dynamic nature of occurrences when conflicting incompatibilities are unnaturally forced together - the predictably unpredictable happens. Amidst the sea of unknowns, here’s a ray of certainty: the Tokyo “2020” Olympics, as it’s colloquially know…
    Weston Nakamura 14 views 30 comments Most recent by lucia_a Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Are these two positions on credit creation reconcilable, is one person looking at different data,...
    Juliette Declercq on 6-22-2021 Q: When you say that, what you mean is that it didn't really end up being new lending that went out into the economy? It wasn't credit creation?   Juliette Declercq: Exactly. No credit creation because basically there is no final demand. If you basically boost base money without any hope of final demand, there is just basically no reason to invest. You're basically cutting short the cycle that you're actually trying to pump up. For me, that's really like a macro…
    Ralph Humphrey 2 views 9 comments Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • Marc_Johnson
    Webinar on the Carbon Market
    I watched this webinar (I missed the live version) which included some of the key players in the (future) formation of a carbon market that can function at scale. The market is very diffuse right now -- there are 64 different markets! -- but demand for carbon offset credits is escalating at such a steep rate (might I say exponential?) that these guys think there will be a functioning worldwide carbon market (i.e. something akin to Brent Crude or WTI) within 2-5 years.  One interesting factoid …
    Marc_Johnson 9 views 3 comments Most recent by Marc_Johnson Real Vision
  • sam_c
    EU Commission released their plan for reducing net emissions by at least 55%
    Today the EU Commission unveiled their big Green plan and the ETS is a really big part of it  something @Raoul Pal discussed with Pierre Andurand) https://www.realvision.com/shows/investor-masterclass/videos/pierre-andurand-the-oil-master-looks-to-the-future?source_collection=925dc1d8377344bbbc46d06e36f63051   Also, this is related to this post on the exchange: https://exchange.realvision.com/question/raoul-mentioned-investing-in-eu-ets-is-there-a-similar-investment-in-the-us--6093d1f1579bbe2…
    sam_c 1 view 3 comments Most recent by John Ahearn Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • ashleigh_f
    Hi Everyone, I work in the structured products market and am currently working on a buy-side proj...
    Hi Everyone, I work in the structured products market and am currently working on a buy-side project. I would be keen to speak to Quants in the derivatives space and or options market makers? Thanks guys #question
    Answered ashleigh_f 1 view 1 comment Most recent by sam_c Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    These @"Roger Hirst" videos are so good. Some of the best blend of charts and verbal context I've...
    These @"Roger Hirst" videos are so good. Some of the best blend of charts and verbal context I've seen. Why have emerging markets (EM) performed so poorly this year thus far? Has the reflation trade worked the way that people believed it would? For Real Vision managing editor Roger Hirst, answers to these questions strike at the most central points of discussion from July’s episode of Insider Talks. He analyzes the new levels in the DXY and its implications for global financial condi…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 3 comments Most recent by violeta_d Real Vision
  • jim_l
    market sniper on RV
    Hello RV team, last week we had the market sniper on RV, I thought his presentation was great and even a novice tech person like myself could follow his chart and make 2-4 decisions/year. I signed up on trading view and for the life of me cannot get the chart he mentioned. Can/does anyone use his chart/service and would you be willing to walk me through how to set this up, I would be more than willing to compensate anyone who could help. many thanks.
    jim_l 2 views 4 comments Most recent by jim_l Real Vision
  • John S
    Best place to learn to chart? I see a lot of YT channels but it didn't seem like they really knew...
    Best place to learn to chart? I see a lot of YT channels but it didn't seem like they really knew what they were doing. Probably haven't found the right one yet and is why I ask. Would like to know the basics but the videos on Real Vision don't go into beginner charting.
    Answered John S 2 views 6 comments Most recent by Petr Pinkhasov Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Good Morning Exchange! Top Posts To Check Out
    Good morning from the US Open! Top posts I'm looking at this morning:  * @Christopher Moir  does a great job of updating an ETF dashboard for all the exchange to see. I've personally made it a habit to try and take a peek everyday and got some awesome insights from it especially in some of the esoteric emerging market ETF's that might be coming into play with big dollar ranges - Christopher Molr's ETF dashboard * Our very own @Weston Nakamura  gives some color about the dollar denominated in …
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 2 comments Most recent by claudio_d Real Vision
  • percy_p
    China helped BTC mining industry unintentionally
      China actually may have done a favor to BTC mining as an unintended consequence and saved the mining rigs. The exile and export of the mining rigs are mostly finished before the flood.  Interestingly, the flood is only weeks apart from the operation start of Sichuan's latest and newest hydropower plant. I don't like to bash or laugh at sustainable energy projects but it's something worth looking into if there's any correlation with the flood. 
    percy_p 1 view 1 comment Most recent by John Ahearn Real Vision
  • Stefan Clulow
    EU ETS Trade: Return guest request
    Tomorrow is a big day for the EU carbon futures market, with the European Commision due to publish the “Fit for 55”legislation.   A request to  @Raoul Pal and the powers that be at RV: Could you please bring back Lawson Steele for a discussion of the EU ETS market once the legislation is out and the market has digested its implications.  Many thanks.
    Stefan Clulow 4 views 0 comments Started by Stefan Clulow Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Information from the latest IEA report is below. To me, there are still question marks around dem...
    Oil demand surges, market set for deficit and volatility: IEA - Kuwait Times PARIS: Oil demand surged last month as rising vaccination rates helped underpin robust economic activity, but with OPEC+ nations pumping less than needed prices are set to be volatile until it reaches a deal to raise output, the IEA warned yesterday. A meeting of OPEC+ nations earlier this month was deadlocked over plans to gradually ease production cuts, imposed to reverse the plunge in oil prices at the start of the…
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Weekly Influence Points Winners!
    Congrats to last week's winners! Remember you can win the weekly prize once a quarter and the monthly one every 6 months. @Jeremiah S  @John Ahearn  @Matt Daniell  In case you forgot: Our Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here Also, the quarter just reset on July 1st, so jump in on the conversation, chat with others, post trade ideas etc and get yoursel…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 8 comments Most recent by john_c Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    The Exchange Week Ahead: July 12 - 16
    Headlines | Markets | Upcoming Macro Data Schedule | Central Banks Schedule | Earnings   This Week on Real Vision: Real Vision NFT Week Kicks Off: Free One Week Crash Course from Real Vision Crypto ← (click here) Headlines (that I’m watching): •🇹🇼As if the semis shortage isn’t bad enough, Taiwan’s TSMC (world’s beating heart of semiconductor production) now under threat of potential COVID breakout. •🇯🇵BOJ to consider buying “green bonds” alongside other Asia central banks, according to BOJ…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Big story. Is China's economy slowing? Is it good for Chinese equities? I believe so. What do...
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/09/china-cuts-reserve-requirements-to-support-economic-recovery.html China cuts reserve requirements to support economic recovery POINTS * The People’s Bank of China said on its website it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all banks by 50 basis points (bps), effective from July 15. * Banks that are subject to an RRR of 5% will be exempted from the new cut. China will cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, releasing around 1 tril…
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 7 comments Most recent by Petr Pinkhasov Real Vision
  • Farrell Murphy
    RVDB Live Today! Submit your questions
    @Weston Nakamura @Ash Bennington and @Jack Farley will be on RVDB Live today and will be answering questions from The Exchange. Any questions not answered live will be answered afterwards here. Comment under this post to ask your questions! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7ZICPEmq2c
    Farrell Murphy 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    This is hilarious. Now maybe Russian cola can be called Coke, and pleather can be called leather.
    French imports made in Champagne must now be labeled as "sparkling wine" in Russia.   https://www.foodandwine.com/news/russia-champagne-law-sparkling-wine-label By Mike Pomranz July 06, 2021 At the risk of oversimplifying generations of geopolitics, Russia has always been a bit of a rabble-rouser. Sometimes, those actions have serious ramifications — like when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 against the will of the international community. But other times, Russia seems to be acting …
    Ralph Humphrey 2 views 6 comments Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    The Case for Oil Equities in Brief
    The market hates not loves the U.S. oil industry.  Consider this – Tesla has a greater market capitalization than several large U.S. oil producers. The market is valuing Tesla more than perhaps the entire U.S. oil industry. Chevron’s Market Cap = $197.82 Billion Exxon Mobil’s Market Cap = $254.61 Billion ConocoPhillips’s Market Cap = $79.90 Billion EOG Resources’ Market Cap = $46.62 Billion Pioneer Natural Resources’ Market Cap = $38.36 Billion Total:                                      …
    Ralph Humphrey 4 views 2 comments Most recent by mandelbrot jones Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Taking a look at the markets
    The most liquid crypto is mostly down so far today.   The S&P 500 is mostly down today, sector-by-sector, as are the other U.S. indices.  Here is what is up in the cryptosphere: and in equities in U.S. markets...
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 3 comments Most recent by Petr Pinkhasov Real Vision
  • renzo_c
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    What is your "most obvious" trade right now?
    I'm looking cross market and things seem to be all over the place: * Energy weaker * FANG's strong * Bonds coming up * Cryptos holding range What is your favorite play in the medium term?
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 23 comments Most recent by mandelbrot jones Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Daily Briefing (un)Special Guest - The Exchange Thoughts
    (see replies for add’l sectioned-off comments) https://vimeo.com/570374168For anyone who missed yesterday’s RVDB Tony Greer Tuesdays, you missed joining an angry mob who saw my stupid face instead (I was one of them- I too wanted Tony) don’t worry he’ll be back soon. I was pulled in about 13 mins prior to going live at 4:47am so @Ash Bennington & I just talked about what was top of mind, which defaults to recent posts on the Exchange + my big picture themes discussed on Exchange over time.…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 12 comments Most recent by michael_k Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • sam_c
    Positive pensions news, funding ratio @ 100%
      Obvious question is, will they lock in these gains?  Will they buy a bunch of UST's when they lock in the gain keeping yields low?     
    sam_c 1 view 3 comments Most recent by Ralph Humphrey Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Monthly Influence Points Winners!
    Congratulations to the following winners and thanks for being amazing contributors to The Exchange! @Oliver Anderson  @Claudio Delgado  @Seahyung Park  @Stefan Clulow  @Matt B  In case you forgot: Our Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here As an aside, the new quarter has started so there is a level playing field to start winning some prizes again for…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 4 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • jason_b
    Easiest way to get into crypto
    On a long weekend, I feel like the rhythms of my standard life kick in on Monday and I go a little crazy without something to do.  For that reason, I thought I would try to help people understand crypto.  Here is a list of things to do to develop a basis for understanding, a knowledge of where we are in the development of the tech, and a continuous flow of information that can help you make decisions on your journey.  Warning, it's all very simple.   First, buy Basic Blockchain by David Shrier…
    jason_b 15 views 0 comments Started by jason_b Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
  • Ian Read
    Short USD, second half of 2021
    Chart from readtheticker.com. Wait for fundamentals to confirm DXY cycle.
    Ian Read 2 views 0 comments Started by Ian Read Real Vision
  • Paul McPherson
    Aussie Oil Producers Under Valued?
    Hi, I'm fairly new to this game so just wanted to know if I am missing something. There has been some murmers recently asking why the oil producers have not taken off but it seems to me that the Aussie oil producers currently show even better value and potential. My basis is as follows, 1 year returns: Oil up 84% Exxon up 42% XLE etf up 46% Then you have the Aussie producers STO up 34% WPL up 6 % BPT down -18% (had a small production downgrade where the market over reacted) As you can…
    Paul McPherson 1 view 5 comments Most recent by tony_m Real Vision
  • Ian Read
    Long ETH
    More here: https://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=4264_cycle-review--ethereum-2021-06
    Ian Read 1 view 1 comment Most recent by john_c Real Vision
  • jason_b
    US10y
    I wrote this in a reply to a question that was asked of an earlier post.  I thought it would be thought provoking, so I tweaked it and put it here for more people to see.   In a country that produces nothing we are monetizing everything.  Since 2000 the onus of prosperity has shifted from private sector the fed's manipulation of interest rates, the US10y (and to a lesser degree the 5 year yield) is the mechanism through which the fed has given every debtor incremental raises by way of mortgage…
    jason_b 1 view 0 comments Started by jason_b Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    This was a good one. Be sure to check out @"Jack Farley" 's preview that is pinned to the exchang...
    This was a good one. Be sure to check out @"Jack Farley" 's preview that is pinned to the exchange as well! Real Vision's Jack Farley welcomes David Meneret, Founder & CIO of Mill Hill Capital, to discuss the nuances of credit markets and strategies to manage risk when investing in collateralized securities. Meneret dives into U.S. credit markets and states that the current yield reflects a failure to recognize "unknown" unknowns. He shares his framework for investing …
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 0 comments Started by Petr Pinkhasov Real Vision
  • jason_b
    So it's happening.... maybe
    To follow up on a post from 4 months ago... f the 10 year is the driver of the economy/SPX, here you go.   https://www.tradingview.com/x/NuMtreLU/ It's happening...ish.  We will see. unconventional, yes, but shoes that fit....
    jason_b 2 views 3 comments Most recent by jason_b Real Vision
  • Farrell Murphy
    RVDB w/ Weston, Jack, and Samuel
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLyIhq6U54k
    Farrell Murphy 1 view 1 comment Most recent by matt_d Real Vision
  • jeremiah_s
    HNS - Kenetic Capital - Jehan Chu
    Hey RV team,  Could we please get Jehan Chu on the platform to do an interview regarding the different VC investing he is doing and also on HNS. I think it would really add a lot of value. I am doing research into HNS at the moment and it is really incredible project in the Web 3.0 stack that is held by every major VC in the space. Jehan is one of the main VCs working closely on HNS.  https://twitter.com/collectionist?lang=en @Raoul Pal @Jack Farley @Sebastian Moonjava @Nick Correa @Petr Pin…
    jeremiah_s 1 view 0 comments Started by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • matthew_l
    Short Amazon - This Guy is Going naked =)
    I feel the time has come for Amazon to be in focus enough, alone after FB has been given a pass, to see some serious downfall. Charts are an easy look for a drop (I won't say correction). This is a very intuitive trade for me and took several months to decide if I would put it on. So I began building short yesterday at 3469. I don't recommend this to anyone, and it is not advice - financial or otherwise , I am not a financial advisor. The derivative route is obviously better for larger moves an…
    matthew_l 3 views 23 comments Most recent by i_n Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Something To Think About On Credit For Friday's Guest, David Meneret
    So on Friday it looks like we will have David Meneret on Real Vision to discuss all things concerning credit derivatives: credit default swaps, high-yield bonds, distressed debt, and more. I saw @Jack Farley put up an interesting tweet this morning:  (1) Jack Farley on Twitter: "just spoke with a credit investor who said that credit default swaps are priced so cheaply "...it's like the VIX at 5 or 6" credit risk is the one risk that so many have shrugged off" / Twitter Cr…
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 5 comments Most recent by wissam_a Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes: Episode 2
    https://vimeo.com/569079459EPISODE 2  UPDATES: * Nat gas: fracking, production disruption (trade idea) * Lumber: supply chain, homebuilding & housing demand (trade idea) * Autos: used cars, dealership inventory * US employment: job posting, unique observation on labor shortage IMAGES & analysis from the road: * Boat hauling: behavior of wealthy * Aluminum ingots: industrial activity * Lumber shipments  * WTF is this…??? New Discussions •Bill or no bill, US infrastructure is alive …
    Weston Nakamura 2 views 28 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • sam_c
    Goodbye speech of Andrew Haldane, Chief Economist and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of ...
    For those that like reading about central banks I think this is a must-read.  @Milton The Curator  this guy now has more time on his hands (although maybe not) so if you could get him in the interview seat it would be great to hear from him.  some snippets;    LoL Black Wednesday  On CBDC and StableCoins and how it can change banking   Andrew is an excellent writer so I urge you to read it all.  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2021/june/thirty-years-of-…
    sam_c 1 view 3 comments Most recent by sam_c Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 26/2021: Results
    Long time no update. I'm constantly rolling out new features on the Real Vision Bot's dashboard and restructuring his back-bone to enable single interview analysis for users. I hope everyone is getting his fix of sentiment and positioning in a timely manner via realvisionbot.com. New changes on the website (please disregard some ugly design bugs that still exist): Downloadable data You can download: * Answer frequency for Crypto survey (weekly aggregate) * Answer frequency for Macro surve…
    Moritz Heiden 5 views 19 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • jason_b
    Trade journal
    Does anyone have a good program or app for an apple to use for a trade journal?  All recommendations are appreciated.  Thank you.
    jason_b 3 views 4 comments Most recent by jason_b Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    What do you think is the most undervalued country in the world today? Please include a rationale...
    What do you think is the most undervalued country in the world today? Please include a rationale.* (This question was taken from the Real Vision twitter feed. I thought it would be interesting to see the differences in answers between the two platforms, and to get reasonable answers to this provocative question.)
    Answered Ralph Humphrey 1 view 7 comments Most recent by nivtej_d Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Weekly Influence Points Winners!
    Congrats to last week's winners! Remember you can win the weekly prize once a quarter and the monthly one every 6 months. @Matt B  @Sam Mitchell  @Sam Colt  In case you forgot: Our Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop.  See Details Here
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 7 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • claudio_d
    Marko’s Slide
    Marko’s Slidehttps://slack-files.com/files-pri-safe/T01UU6E82RK-F0264ENKW82/real_vision_marko_v2.pdf?c=1624973051-34326b8e5d4168b2
    claudio_d 1 view 1 comment Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • jason_b
    The consumer, the investor, the fed, everything, and wrecking balls
    Can't shake it so I guess I'll put it out there.   I constructing my view on the state of the economy, out prospects as a nation and how that relates to the rest of the world, I have been struck by 2 thoughts...  Ha Ha The first thing that strikes me is the intangible and etherial nature of economics.  For the most part we are all discussing derivatives of thoughts.  We are all measuring the a functional behavior that is a result of a thought process that I have yet to find a definition for. …
    jason_b 1 view 0 comments Started by jason_b Real Vision
  • jason_b
    only 5 min to get things out
    The character of the DJI prior to 1945 is much more like the character of BTC prior to Jan. 2020.  Given that Bretton Woods changed the nature of the USD, this change in character for BTC could say a lot.        In that there are obviously 2 audiences here I like to be clear about what I'm saying...  BW was the starting point for the US Dollar as the global reserve currency.  As a result, larger more sophisticated forces with more money and skill became interested in Wall St.  Look at the DJI …
    jason_b 1 view 0 comments Started by jason_b Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Festival of Learning: The Exchange Wrap Up Video w/ Moritz Heiden & Weston Nakamura
    The Exchange is a 24/7/365 festival of non-stop learning!  See Two Quants co-founder, Munich Re Head of Quant Research, RV Exchange builder/contributor, and Festival of Learning Day 3 "Information Curation" panelist @Moritz Heiden and I share our thoughts on tough lessons learned in 2021, including: • Moritz selling calls on GME in Jan • Moritz "fat finger" crypto execution • Weston's FOMO portfolio ....and much more.  https://vimeo.com/567688306Check out TwoQuants here
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 12 comments Most recent by SergioMontano Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Festival of Learning: Roger Hirst on Technical Analysis
    (Roger just wrote this out in slack, I’m guessing the question is from @Aaron Brill ? But wanted to share w/ exchange↓ )   Apologies to everyone for the long message, but this is an answer for Aaron who asked: “Knowing how, when, and the right types of trades to properly express the narrative being painted by my TA and general pattern recognition in the macro environment. What do you do?” My use of TA is to complement macro fundamentals (I’m not in front of a screen for enough of the day to …
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Aaron Brill Real Vision
  • simon_b
  • Weston Nakamura
    heads up- Fest of Learning next panel (starting now): fellow Exchange members / Two Quants Moritz...
    @Moritz Heiden @Moritz Seibert and of course RV Bot on the panel on info curation  
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 0 comments Started by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Options Comments pulled from FoL channel from Mike Green
    In Tom Thornton and Mike Green's panel,@John Sundheim asked the following question which I wanted to highlight, as Mike responded  in great depth immediately following the session. Want to share with those who may have missed it: John Sundheim question:  In Summary can Mike and Tom verbalize a short list of the criteria mentioned with terms like "25 delta" and asymmetric payouts given a little more detail. Mike Green: Short list of the criteria: 1. Buy an option that matches your …
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 12 comments Most recent by matt_d Real Vision
  • sam_c
    Interesting event on Fraud from Berkeley Law
    If you are interested in fraud / short selling this might be for you. It's a paid event but keep an eye on the #FraudFest journos always spoil the goodies. https://berkeleyfraudfest.com/   https://twitter.com/dianabhenriques/status/1407747938940555267?s=19  
    sam_c 1 view 0 comments Started by sam_c Real Vision
  • yassine_l
    Dfinity Investment Thesis
    Disclaimers: 1- This way further in the risk spectrum, I assume you already have a good allocation to BTC/ETH and looking outside of DeFi into the wider Web3 spectrum! 2- This is a long post and can be used as an entry point to do more research and get started understanding and learning about the new decentralized technology infrastructure! Added a tl,dr at the top for people who don’t have time. 3- I am a techie working at a "traditional" cloud company so I am either biased or hav…
    yassine_l 7 views 11 comments Most recent by goncalo_g Real Vision
  • Stefan Clulow
    Message to UI Team: iPad User Experience
    I don’t think I’m alone in disliking one aspect of the UI for the RV iPad app.  The app is a huge improvement from the last one.  At least I think it is.  I can’t really tell because I don’t really use it.  I used to use it almost all of the time, but now the UI sucks. @Travis Kimmel @Weston Nakamura The app should default to the horizontal viewing mode.  This issue was flagged a while back amidst a series of complaints about having to view videos in vertical mode on the then new iPad app.  Ex…
    Stefan Clulow 1 view 1 comment Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Welcome Petr to Team Exchange!
    https://vimeo.com/[email protected] Murphy and I are very excited to introduce the community to a big addition to the Exchange team: @Petr Pinkhasov ! Please welcome (and obviously follow) Petr, great dude, sharp and market knowledgeable (just watch the video lol).  Let’s make him feel at home just as you do with me and each other,  - Petr joining will take the Exchange onward and upward! �
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 9 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Farrell Murphy
    RVDB Live! Submit your questions
    @Weston Nakamura and @Jack Farley will be on RVDB Live today and will be answering questions from The Exchange. Any questions not answered live will be answered afterwards here. Comment under this post to ask your questions! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aa58QihWq3I
    Farrell Murphy 1 view 7 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • max_w
    FNMA and FNMAS
    Bad day for the GSEs. Mixed Supreme Court case ruling. Haven't had time to go through it all but they are down bad. Best article I can find thus far:  https://www.npr.org/2021/06/23/999877525/supreme-court-grants-a-reprieve-to-agency-that-runs-fannie-freddie  
    max_w 11 views 10 comments Most recent by max_w Real Vision
  • Real Vision
    Festival of Learning: Day 1 - How To Join
    Starting at 10:00am EST… HOW TO JOIN: ★ Find your email: “[Reminder] The Festival is starting – your link to join inside” 1. First, please make sure you’re logged in to realvision.com (which you should be if you’re logged into the Exchange - but make sure). Once you’ve done that, go to your email “[Reminder] The Festival is starting – your link to join inside”   2. Now that you’re logged in, you can access the Festival by clicking the icon in the email that looks like this: 3. In ca…
    Real Vision 2 views 0 comments Started by Real Vision Real Vision
  • Farrell Murphy
    Weekly Influence Points Winners! Wk 6/14
    Congrats to our Weekly Influence points winners from last week! You guys are responsible for making the The Exchange awesome! @Steven Van Metre  @Stefan Clulow  @Wissam Ali  Reminder: Our Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here As a reminder we will have 3 new weekly winners next week so everyone is still in the game for next week! 
    Farrell Murphy 1 view 2 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
  • Weston Nakamura
    Weekly Roundup + Global Markets Review: USD & FX, USTs, Equities, Options & Quarter Expiry, Gold ...
    https://vimeo.com/565456248Not my typical weekly roundup at all ↑ Markets Reviewed / Examined & Explained  In this note- market related matters from the week: •Global Central Banks •Geopolitical Risk  •”The Dollar” / the yen, FX •UST yields •Gold & crypto  •June quarterly options expiry/meme calls I was going to discuss markets on RVDB Thurs but didn’t make it on. Not every day is a markets discussion day- but day after FOMC certainly was. We saw some major moves that had left…
    Weston Nakamura 4 views 26 comments Most recent by Matthew Paley Real Vision
  • marguerita_l
    Digital Euro discussion
    Many implicating of CBDCs. Why is this not discussed in the main stream press? Or are there any US forums where the possible implementation paths,  ramifications and ethics are discussed? https://www.eventbrite.de/e/digital-currencies-beyond-borders-international-implications-of-cbdcs-tickets-158416495001
    marguerita_l 2 views 0 comments Started by marguerita_l Real Vision
  • Matthew Johnson
    Daily routine
    Hey all, I was just curious to hear about your daily routines of the different prices and indices you check. i.e. do you start your day by looking at the VIX, MOVE index, 2 - 10 spread etc..
    Matthew Johnson 1 view 3 comments Most recent by matt_d Real Vision
  • jeremiah_s
    Boss Move
    The guy who built this is a complete boss:  https://twitter.com/pheathwa/status/1405664600570298369https://www.yapmandu.com/ @Paul Heath Lets go bro!  It basically aggregates all the Twitter posts of the RV people so you don't miss anything they say.  
    jeremiah_s 3 views 3 comments Most recent by Paul Heath Real Vision
  • jeremiah_s
    Great Resource
    Really cool resource that is simplistic yet comprehensive. @Roger Hirst is one of the writers as well.  https://thelykeion.com/ Get it!
    jeremiah_s 4 views 0 comments Started by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • Stefan Clulow
    Three Cheers for Ed Harrison, and the Fed’s Statements
    I had some thoughts on the Fed’s actions today (below), but want to say a word first about Ed Harrison’s departure. I have a mixed reaction to Ed Harrison’s plan to move on from RealVision. I first encountered  Ed in the very early days of Zero Hedge in 2008 and then watched his show Boom Bust on RT.  I read his articles when I found them post-GFC, but got a whole new view during the dark days last March when the world was ending and I discovered RV (via an RV interview of Dan Zwirn posted on…
    Stefan Clulow 2 views 3 comments Most recent by Stefan Clulow Real Vision
  • Real Vision
    Real Vision Group SEZC, the company behind Raoul Pal’s financial media brand, is closing in on a ...
    Real Vision Group SEZC, the company behind Raoul Pal’s financial media brand, is closing in on a $35 million Series C, CoinDesk has learned.
    Real Vision 4 views 2 comments Most recent by Brad S Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    If you can pick the mind of 1 or 2 people from the Exchange (about anything), who would it be? Us...
    If you can pick the mind of 1 or 2 people from the Exchange (about anything), who would it be? Use names & “@“ tag. Also feel free to write what / why (i.e. @Moritz Heiden - want to know how quants look at markets- tickers? Charts? Lines of code? @Matt Daniell to learn how to develop a bulletproof daily process and stay disciplined to it.)
    Answered Weston Nakamura 1 view 5 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchange Exclusive: How To ESG - Dr. Indranil Ghosh w/ Ash Bennington & Weston Nakamura
    https://vimeo.com/555247663Alternative video title: “How To Prosperity”  I have the privilege of participating alongside @Ash Bennington for a tri-continental discussion with Dr. Indranil Ghosh of Tiger Hill Capital and author of Powering Prosperity:  A Citizen's Guide for shaping global prosperity   - sharing insights exclusively for the Exchange. (MIT trained, formerly with Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund, Bridgewater Associates, McKinsey & Co).  Through his unique perspective, Indranil…
    Weston Nakamura 2 views 15 comments Most recent by henry_d Real Vision
  • Farrell Murphy
    Weekly Influence Points Winners! Wk 6/7
    I am posting on time for once this week (lol). Congrats to our Weekly Influence points winners from last week. Thank you all for making The Exchange awesome! @Pablo Malvar Fernandez  @Claudio Delgado  @Bradley Snyder  Reminder: Our Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here As a reminder we will have 3 new weekly winners next week so everyone is still in th…
    Farrell Murphy 1 view 9 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Ian Read
    Bitcoin to $200,000, how?
    More detail here: https://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=4232_bitcoin-to-200000-review-2021-06   Here is why BTCUSD to $200,000 is now on the table in 2021. During a period of heavy money printing with higher debt levels the FED must choose between two of the following to avoid a collapse: 1) Higher stock prices. 2) Keeping the economy and employment positive. 3) US dollar strength. The above is known as the economic 'Dollar Trinity' choice. The FED and the DEM's (US mid term…
    Ian Read 3 views 0 comments Started by Ian Read Real Vision
  • sam_c
    Scale from 1-5 how true is this meme? Feel free to comment too.
    Scale from 1-5 how true is this meme? Feel free to comment too.
    Poll sam_c 1 view 3 comments Most recent by jason_b Real Vision
  • jason_b
    Recipes for manias, and crypto
    1: An economy near the end of.a debt super cycle with more gilded coins in the hands of people who don't know how to treat them 2: a novelty/new tech that is picking up steam with the Haves' 3:the new item has to be easily attainable have it's own vernacular to lip 5: Lack of oversight (like riding down the highway before the rising sun has appeared) Crypto in the US:  1: Economic outlook: check  2: Lambos: Check 3: Only hurdle is KYC: check; Mining, proof of stake; check 5: Defi multip…
    jason_b 1 view 4 comments Most recent by jason_b Real Vision
  • jason_b
    Can the fed directly and positively effect the employment rate?
    If the price of oil is the price of energy and the amount of energy needed to create something is directly related to the price of all things, then the trend in demographics is the is the on/off switch for whether or not our monetary policy works.  The rate limiting factor in the speed with which a population grows is the age to sexual maturity, so we as a species are inherently slow at changing our demographics.  Add on top of that the delayed age at which women are getting pregnant, and the a…
    jason_b 1 view 1 comment Most recent by jason_b Real Vision
  • Aaron Godeaux
    Can anyone think of any good reasons to tokenize commodities? I don't see any clear advantages, a...
    Can anyone think of any good reasons to tokenize commodities? I don't see any clear advantages, and I see potential large problems regarding immutability.
    Answered Aaron Godeaux 1 view 6 comments Most recent by John G Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes: Debut Episode
    https://vimeo.com/561587797 This has the potential to be the greatest experiment to test the superiority of the Exchange against everyone/thing else. I truly believe that a truck driver and a D student can self-generate a better grasp of the real economy than so called economists, market participants, academics, policy makers and anyone else - precisely because we are taking a highly unconventional (and highly rational) approach. But we need your help - so if you have anything (really- anything…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 55 comments Most recent by Aaron Brill Real Vision