The Exchange
Discussion List
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BeliefsDr. Van Tharp states that you don't trade the markets; you trade your beliefs about the markets. Take this is in.... we all have underlying beliefs and we view the world through the lens of our beliefs. Not one of us experiences an event the same way and will recall it differently in the future. Pay attention to your feelings and write down your beliefs. Sort through if your beliefs are useful or a hindering your life. This is the process of improvement in trading and life. -
How often your RealVision Web Player not able to skip or fast forward/backwards?How often your RealVision Web Player not able to skip or fast forward/backwards? -
Adding Research on Copper & it's relationship with EV's and anything electrification.LlplHere is a report and some slides to add to the collaborative piece on copper posted by @Olivier Asset a couple of months back: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/a-collaborative-piece-on-copper-5fe174622177ea4f6e2d0f18 Some interesting things from the attached report: a lot more copper in an EV and from RV guest Warren Pies And some China Related Slides: As noted here, Remember the political issues in Chile? Supply / Demand: From a report fro…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 18/2021: ResultsSurvey results are in! Some new changes this week: * 24/7 survey availability is now tested and all obvious bugs have been fixed * results are always aggregated on a Sunday. The Bot keeps tweeting interim results and interesting observations * the new interactive dashboard will be deployed this week. It's already running in a stealth mode for performance testing. Advantage of this dashboard: It's all programmed by myself, so I have full control and can update charts more frequently (the previo…
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Is anyone going to check out the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting? https://finance.y...Is anyone going to check out the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-2021-live-updates-220309349.html Famed investor Warren Buffett addresses shareholders around the world on Saturday at Berkshire Hathaway's 2021 annual shareholder meeting.
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Exchange Traded Fun: Spending BTC in TokyoHere is a weekend “educational“ (stupid) video on how to spend BTC in Japan (where BTC has been legal means of payment for some time now), WHY I would spend BTC vs fiat in the first place (in trivial amounts), and my general/everyday causing mischief around Tokyo. Originally recorded Sun 4/18 (few hours after BTC mini crash). https://vimeo.com/543960066Also- thank you all for the birthday wishes!
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 18/2021The RV Exchange surveys are still open for this week. Cutoff date is now moved to Sunday for both surveys (crypto and macro). Take the Real Vision Macro Survey Take the Real Vision Crypto Survey By the way, portfolio performance has recovered again. The Exchange didn't budge after the Bitcoin drawdown and kept the allocation. The Exchange crypto portfolio is also performing very well. The Bot's broader portfolio is more stable, but clearly behind in terms of performance. Mo…
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Position Sizing as EdgeWhat I have found through my experience is that edge is quantifiable and the best investors and traders in the world understand their edge. To new and intermediate level players their edge is illusive and undefinable. The greatest edge one can gain is in the realm of position sizing. This is 80% of my edge in markets. The Van Tharp concept of R-multiples will change your trading and level you up.
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Daily Briefing + Exchange Exclusive AFTER HOURS: BTC & MONEX w/ Jack Farley. +Monex Earnings & Pr...AFTER HOURS exclusively on the Exchange with @Jack Farley https://vimeo.com/542396482Additional Charts & material: BTC vs JAPAN Cash Equity Trading ✔️ BTCJPY ¥6mn resistance vs ❌BTCUSD $55k GBTC premium & discount vs GBTC/Monex Ratio: BOJ BTC MONEX charts from previous posts (therefore not updated but concept remains). Also, see how Monex / Japan retail ”crushed“ (barely) BTC -20% 2 weekends ago. •Intraday Charts from Mon 4/26, w/ BOJ policy release during lunch break (…
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Hey, I am current studying A level. Planing to take a gap year. Would like to work in an investme...Hey, I am current studying A level. Planing to take a gap year. Would like to work in an investment bank in the future. MY question is that what skill should i acquire/develop in order to prepare myself ?
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Presentation on Options & VolatilityIt's been my pleasure to give an introductory presentation/course on options and volatility to a select group of students at Queen's University. Download the slide deck here. Main discussion points: * The basics: forward pricing theory, quanto vs. local forwards * Alternatives to the Black-Scholes model * Skew and term structure * Put-Call Parity * Sensitivities ("Greeks") * The GME gamma squeeze * VIX, VSTOXX * Correlation & basket options The key to learning is asking the ri…
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Weekly Influence Point Winners! Wk of 4/19Sorry for delay, but congratulations to this week's winners! @John Doe @I N @John Crockett Out Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here Later this week we will also announce our first Monthly Influence Point Winners! And as reminder we will have 3 NEW WINNERS next week so everyone is still in the game for RV Shop credit! -
Bitcoin Lower High & 20/50 Death CrossesRecently I posted about the Bitcoin Pi Cycle top calling for taking BTC off the table and having a stop buy if a higher high was reached. Now, we're significantly lower, and it seems like that was the right move and that strategy can still be in play. I know that Bitcoin has rallied recently and it has a lot of people excited. I just wanted to point out a trend I've noticed on the charts in this exact situation. The charts below shows the 20/50/200 SMAs (green, yellow, red respectively) and…
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Trend Following System – I’m looking to implement a trend-following system and am searching for t...Extra info: I’ve been listening to the (excellent) Systematic Investor podcast on Top Traders Unplugged so I have a solid theoretical understanding of what trend-following is. https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/podcast-episodes/ And I like the role commodity-trend plays in Chris Cole’s 100-year portfolio. The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent: How to Grow and Protect Wealth for 100 Years.https://www.artemiscm.com/research-market-views. Now I want to move onto the next step wh…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 17/2021: ResultsAfter a few days of hardcore rebuilding some parts of the Bot to enable him to digest the crypto survey results and fixing some problems with the weights, here are the results of the Exchange survey. First of all, thanks to all of you who are taking part in this and give feedback. It's invaluable to get suggestions etc. If something looks strange, a chart could be better structured or you have seen something cool somewhere else which you would like me to investigate, please let me know! We…
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REQUEST; anyone has data on what places are set to get more inhabitants because of work from home...Also what's the chinese/japanese version of work from home? Is it still a thing there? Also thinking of this (usa)
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Weekend Roundup: Fund Management, Client Risk + Prime Brokerage Risk (oh and + market risk)Make sure to follow the topic → Weekend Roundup https://vimeo.com/541415306ETFs Mike Green Update Live w/ @Max Wiethe: Game Changer - Mike Green ETFs Meb Faber & Jason Buck: ”If you buy & hold my ETF you will lose money“ - setting client expectations Hedge Funds: Mike Vranos & @Raoul Pal : Client Redemption Risk-Dependent Portfolio Construction + DIY Prime Broking Marc Cohodes w/ Jason Buck from Feb 2021 : When your prime broker fucks you over with a straight face RV Cl…
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Holdings in Pantera and Similar FundsWondering how to understand lack of ADA, LINK and VET among other things in the funds like Coinbase Ventures, Pantera, etc. I am reviewing on Messari.io. Any thoughts? Polychain: https://messari.io/screener/polychain-capital-portfolio-6E2FF33B Three Arrows: https://messari.io/screener/three-arrows-capital-3299716D Pantera: https://messari.io/screener/pantera-capital-portfolio-82DB25ED
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Monster Cycle: Game on!! with correction time edit.It's happening. BTC's exponential rise may just be a fractal of a much larger pattern. https://www.tradingview.com/x/RVPVdBlM/ I figure we just have to shake all the newbs' BTC into institutional hands as we have broken the lower supporting trend line BTC created on the log chart. The number of new addresses since the Elon Musk bar (Bottom at ~39,700) is impressive. Also, on the daily chart the 200 EMA is at about 40k along with the 3rd leg peak of 40,500. This cluster is where we are he…
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Did anyone have issues with the web video player on RealVision? 1. Not able jump to certain time ...Did anyone have issues with the web video player on RealVision? 1. Not able jump to certain time of video. 2. Not able to use the 15s back and forward. I tried few browser and clear cache, still have the same issues. Also it work sometime, but rare it work.
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AgTech Ideas/Discussion - Post Dwight Anderson (Tiger Cub)Hi all, I recently had the chance to watch @Max Wiethe 's interview with Dwight Anderson about the AgTech space, and I noticed there was not a thread discussing it yet. I wanted to start one as I don't imagine many of us are experts in such a niche space, including myself, and I'm interested in learning more - so wanted to open up the floor. Prior to watching the video, I was broadly interested in the AgTech space I thought of it as an interesting way to play inflation while having exposure …
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DAILY BRIEFING: LIVEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDLjO8w4Kek -
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Real Vision SurveysDon't forget to participate in both of the surveys this week. We already saw a very interesting development on Wednesday, when Bitcoin was shunned for Ethereum in the Crypto survey. I'm also very curious about this week's macro survey performance and the sentiment, surely it's bad because of the position in Bitcoin, but we also have a lot of commodities, EM equities, and even Gold (17.4%) in the survey which should help. Take the Real Vision Macro Survey Take the Real Vision Crypto Survey …
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Blockchain yield risks and approachesGreat read on how some crypto businesses are providing such ridiculous yields and the risks their approaches may pose to lenders and borrowers https://prohashing.com/guides/earning-interest-on-cryptocurrencies
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Capital Gains and Labor Income should NOT be the same due to different expected returnsThis notion that wages and capital gains should be taxed at the same rate is erroneous. The expected value of wage is 100% of earned income. The probabilities of your employer not paying you or demanding money from you is zero. (Expected value of labor = 100% X wage + 0% X no wage + 0% X pay employer). The expected value on the return from capital gains is NOT equal to the actual gains returned. There is some probability that the investor will break even and some probability that investor …
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My Question and Reflection on Bitcoin vs Gold: The Great Debate with Michael Saylor and Frank Giu...The debate between Michael Saylor and Frank Giustra was spectacular. For those of you who haven't watched yet, I totally recommend you watching. I've included the link of debate video here. Michale Saylor was incredible as always delivering his case for Bitcoin. However, there are two risks that Frank pointed out that I wrestled with and I thought it is worth discussing among the RV community. I would really love to get you guys' take on these. How valid are these risks do you think? 1. Hig…
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Not the Onionhttps://www.risk.net/awards/7741211/risk-innovation-of-the-year-credit-suisse
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For those Interested in understanding the history of custody and "what is a euro bond/ dollar", I...The Quick explainer for Eurobonds is this: Eurobonds were introduced to the financial markets in the early 1960s with the launch of internationally distributed and mainly US dollar-denominated bonds. Originating as an offshore market, and not subject to the exclusive regulation of one government or group of governments, Eurosecurities initially benefited from the exploitation of inefficiencies in individual domestic markets. The introduction, in 1963, of the Interest Equalisation Tax in the…
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We have some "traditional/legacy" finance folks (e.g., Minard, Cramer) calling for a large pullba...We have some "traditional/legacy" finance folks (e.g., Minard, Cramer) calling for a large pullback in BTC, while "new world" folks (e.g., Willy Wong) looking at data and postulating that BTC has incredible support at a $1T market cap. Seems like one of those moments where we get to see whether new world or old world thinking applies. Is this the right way to compare these calls? Is one of these groups missing something?
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Weekly Influence Point Winners! Wk of 4/12Happy Monday Exchange! And congratulations to this week's winners! @Matthew BIRD @Ernesto Rachitoff @John San Out Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here Later this week we will also announce our first Monthly Influence Point Winners! And as reminder we will have 3 NEW WINNERS next week so everyone is still in the game for RV Shop credit!
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 16/2021: ResultsIt's already one week since we launched the @Real Vision crypto survey and more than 650 votes in the first week. Wow. So in addition to the weekly macro survey, I want to present the first insights. As always, I track the portfolio by looking at the weekly survey each Sunday. The portfolio will then be reallocated on Monday. For the first "allocation" of the Crypto portfolio I used Saturday evening because crypto trades 24/7 and that was the day when the majority of votes was alrea…
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Crypto/Blockchain/DeFi Venture FundsIt would be great to get anyone's perspective on the best Crypto/Blockchain/DeFi venture funds? Specifically, funds that are currently taking on new LPs and minimum investments in the $250-500k range. I've just been investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum over the last couple years, but looking to expand my investments in this sector. Thank you for any feedback and perspectives.
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On this week's segment of "The Vision," Nick Correa presents some of the upcoming programming, wh...On this week's segment of "The Vision," Nick Correa presents some of the upcoming programming, which will feature Jens Nordvig, Dan Suzuki, Chris Whalen, Scott Burg, and more.
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Im looking for a paper or primer that speaks to the relatinships between say Oil price and Oil co...Im looking for a paper or primer that speaks to the relatinships between say Oil price and Oil companies, Gold price / Gold miners, Alluminium price / alluminium producers.
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Primer on SPACSLink: https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/A-Primer-on-SPACs-1.12.21_0.pdf
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Has anyone used coverd calls to sell out of a position? If yes what's the best resource as a how ...Has anyone used coverd calls to sell out of a position? If yes what's the best resource as a how to do it well?
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Addressing RVDB from FriRegarding the 2 questions on Turkey’s crypto “ban” - I just mentioned in the Hive Mind report of how many countless times the Exchange is ahead with identifying and discussing what’s on people’s minds, and this is exactly what I’m talking about. RVDB films at the end of the day (and this one was live so its airing even earlier) so obviously the first chance to comment has to wait until then. But if you just looked around the Exchange, you’ll have seen this discussion taking place many hours…
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The bull case for DOGE: A hedge against Bitcoin's end-stateHere's my Friday night speculation for you all We know that only 21M BTC will ever be mined, but what has not been reasonably explored is what happens to the bitcoin ecosystem after this occurs? Bitcoin is incredibly deflationary. There is a strong disincentive against trading it for other assets which would likely depreciate relative to bitcoin's value . Bitcoin proponents argue that mining fees will be able to sufficiently motivate miners to continue to secure the network, however what h…
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Anyone currently evaluation AllianceBlock (ALBT)Hi, Just asking if anyone else is doing and due diligence/DYOR on AllianceBlock (ALBT) https://allianceblock.io/ If so any thought/impressions etc. Thanks -Marc
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That Truman show momentSo.... anyone watch @Raoul Pal ? JUST when you think you’ve finally learned and figured out this macro shit... alright Pal/RV... back to school it is then! watch this → THE EXPONENTIAL AGE: CRYPTO’S FAST AND FURIOUS RISE
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EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO Q1 CONFERENCE CALL + 📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGEForget earnings season, this is the only “conference call” you need to pay attention to. The Real Vision Exchange Q12021 Portfolio Review with @Weston Nakamura and @Moritz Heiden https://vimeo.com/537484193and of course, don’t forget the latest issue of Inside the Hive Mind of the Real Vision Exchange for the month (2 PDF links below)! CLICK HERE FOR THE EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO Q1 2021 REVIEW CONFERENCE CALL SLIDES 📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE REPORT DOWNLOAD REPORT PDF …
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SEC Executive report of the Madoff investigation.Because the news is out that Bernie died in prison. A good time to remind everyone once again that regulators are not that good at regulating. as Chanos said: Regulators are financial archaeologists — they will tell you after the company has collapsed what the problem was. For those interested a 22 pager on all that went wrong at the SEC in the Madoff investigation. Besides RV already has an interview (actually several) with the wistleblower Harry Markopolos ==> https:/…
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BBC Newsnight Apr' 13 2021This guy's "half-inched" Ash's microphone!
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Anyone know of a good alternative to Coinbase or eToro with a variety of alt exposure?Anyone know of a good alternative to Coinbase or eToro with a variety of alt exposure?
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Since various scenarios are being discussed and a tumultuous market phase could be around the cor...Since various scenarios are being discussed and a tumultuous market phase could be around the corner in upcoming months, I was wondering if there is a robust view on which brokerages to use while keeping funds fairly safe & protected in order to enter the market at a low point. Any suggestions would be very much appreciated (e.g. how about Interactive Brokers, among others with European offerings?) - thanks!
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First results from the RV crypto surveyMore information about the survey see here. Looks like Dogecoin won't make it...But otherwise the Top selections looks solid. Still combing through the large list of additional coins that have been suggested, but not bad for the initial allocation.
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Reading Tea LeavesOver the last few weeks here my thoughts on the 3 strong macro narratives. * Inflation due to continued stimulus - favouring hedges of gold, real estate, and value stocks. weakening dollar * Strong dollar, reflation, US stocks continue upward. * Inflation, softer dollar but still strong comparatively US stocks higher push to value. Global debt concerns leading to a global solution. - the new world somthing Raoul spoke about in the DB. the rules do t matter we are on a new course. * Your th…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 15/2021: ResultsWelcome to the weekly results of the Real Vision Exchange Macro survey. You might wonder, why "Macro survey"? Well, on the weekend I launched a separate survey, the Real Vision Crypto Survey. You can find additional information here. If you like it, please participate. I already got a lot of suggestions for additional coins to include and will screen these over the next few days. The tracking portfolio will start today. With all the surveys, the realvisionbot.com website will get…
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Weekend Roundup: Green & Moses, Author Ash, Asia Crypto, Moritz Heiden & Westonhttps://vimeo.com/535407203• Danny Moses & Mike Green: Hidden Leverage, Nonsense news & weed stocks • RVDB Fri Live @Ash Bennington @Raoul Pal • "Market Tremors" Hari Krishnan and @Ash Bennington • QCP Capital: Asia crypto markets w/ Raoul Special mentions: @Moritz Heiden @Seahyung Park @Lisa Gee @John Ahearn
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D4m!t Raoul!I did the S&P / Fed Bal Sheet analysis myself. What if we're not in an everything bubble, but the value of the dollar is falling? I might have just blown my own mind when I asked myself, "...I'm debt free. If the value of the dollar is falling, what happens if I do something like a HELOC? ...but I don't need to owe a bank... What does NFT'ing the house look like?"
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The Real Vision Exchange Crypto SurveySo, to put a little bit of pressure on me for further development (diamonds are born under pressure), I decided to launch a prototype of the Real Vision Exchange Crypto Survey. In contrast to the "normal" macro survey, this one allows participants to decide upon a portfolio of coins/tokens. The initial selection of coins is decided by the Bot based on the following criteria: - Market Cap - Trading Volume - Tradeability (for potential real-life implementation) - Diversification (the B…
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I cant figure out how Raul is calculating the formula to support his claim that everything is fla...I cant figure out how Raul is calculating the formula to support his claim that everything is flat based on using the US Fed balance sheet as the denominator. I did a few calculations (see attached) and I get close. But like to know if RV could publish Raul’s formula. Thanks @Ash @Raul
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Exodus Public Offering - Has anyone looked into this? Exodus is trying to raise 75mil from the pl...Exodus Public Offering - Has anyone looked into this? Exodus is trying to raise 75mil from the platform. I like the platform, have been using it for some time. Based on their SEC filing their revenue tripled from 2019 to 2020. Of course, that might be a common theme across all crypto companies. I like that they are building an ecosystem so you do not need to go to each site like UNI or Compound. The way I think of them is a wallet with built-in DeFi functionality. Pretty slick design and a nice… -
#AshSwagGot that @Ash Bennington swag. Good choice on the tees RV they fit great!
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Insurance-linked securities and the opportunity within the Belt and Road Initiative.https://www.beltandroad.news/narrowing-the-education-gap-insurance-linked-securities-ils/
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 15/2021First of all: apologies for this week's delay in survey results and survey link. A lot of people already participated (the link always stays the same), so no worries, there will be results. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY I also didn't post a weekly summary, as @Weston Nakamura and I recorded a quarterly portfolio review yesterday. We'll try to do this regularly to give you insights into our takeaways and observations from the survey. Overall, it has been a fantastic quarter for the Exchange p…
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Saw this proposal out for community feedback and want to get the community's thoughts on the impl...Saw this proposal out for community feedback and want to get the community's thoughts on the implications on asset prices, inflation, economy if this goes through: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-proposes-mortgage-servicing-changes-to-prevent-wave-of-covid-19-foreclosures/ The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) today proposed a set of rule changes intended to help prevent avoidable foreclosures as the emergency federal foreclosure protections expire.
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M. Saylor recommended an old macro investing book had a black cover. Does anyone know what it is...M. Saylor recommended an old macro investing book had a black cover. Does anyone know what it is ...help lol
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How do etfs work when one of its constituent stock appreciates in price?Hi Everyone, Suppose we have an ETF like SPY with 100 shares each of X, Y, and Z companies. If the price of X and Y remain constant, and Z increases in price by 10% .... does this mean that the ETF has to sell 5 shares each of companies X and Y, while at the same time need to purchase 10 shares of company Z? If anyone understands the mechanics for this, would love to learn more.
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I want to see David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian being interviewed by realvision. I discovered David t...I want to see David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian being interviewed by realvision. I discovered David thanks To Dan Tapiero's tweet that I discovered on Realvision. David has been amazingly accurate in his macro views for last 12 months and I think it would benefit this community to hear his views and have Raoul challenge him, Thanks.
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Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, joins Michael Green to discuss how...Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, joins Michael Green to discuss how and why geopolitics will have major effects on markets in the coming years with a particular focus on U.S.-China relations. They discuss everything from Taiwan and the issue of semiconductor supply chains to other actors like Russia as well as the merits and faults of Cold War analogies. They also touch on what Papic calls "the most important macro chart of this cycle" and the domestic is…
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Monthly Influence Points WinnersWe are excited to announce our First Monthly Influence Points Winners! Congratulations to the following and thank you for being valuable contributors to The Exchange. @Jeremiah S @John Ahearn @Craig P @Jaymes Rosenthal @Matt Daniell Our Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here As a reminder we will have 3 NEW WINNERS next week so everyone is still…
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On this week's segment of "The Vision," Peter Cooper presents some of the upcoming programming, w...On this week's segment of "The Vision," Peter Cooper presents some of the upcoming programming, which will feature Marcus Frampton, Sean Fieler, Marko Papic, Mike Green, and more.
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Is there a way to rewatch the Crypto Gathering?Is there a way to rewatch the Crypto Gathering?
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Thoughts On Retirement Portfolio Holdings (Cash, Precious Metals, Crypto, Stocks) Hello everyone...Thoughts On Retirement Portfolio Holdings (Cash, Precious Metals, Crypto, Stocks) Hello everyone, first time posting here, and very happy to have found this community. I'm an investor in my late 20s looking for long term growth for later in life, currently diversified through everything previously mentioned. Considering the volatility across all markets (rising inflation of the USD, high equities, uncertainty within the crypto space), I'm wondering how you all diversify your holdings in your p…
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Exchange Weekend Roundup: Deflationary Printing, Unholy VIX, Arch-EGOhttps://vimeo.com/532701734Key Videos of the Week • Lacy Hunt & Danielle DiMartino Booth: Disinflationary headwinds against rising yields, 2 quarter growth head-fake, global supply chain & aging/birthrate demographic hit (Video Link Here) • Chris Cole & Mike Green: “Unholy Trinity,” VIX in 2020, Insolvency, BTC “what if,” Dragon Portfolio 2020 performance (Video Link Here) Archegos Coverage •RVDB Tues: Tony Greer de-risking (Video Link Here) •RVDB Wed PART 1 of 2: @Weston Nakam…
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How do the Primary Dealers fund their purchase of U.S. Treasuries? Can PD just loan money to them...How do the Primary Dealers fund their purchase of U.S. Treasuries? Can PD just loan money to themselves (Prof. Werner money creation theory)? #QE
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 14/2021Don't forget to participate in this week's Real Vision Exchange survey. I started the project of adding new markets. This week, I included only Nasdaq, mainly to test the pipeline. Thank you for all your support and Happy Easter! CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am…
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Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, sits down with Michael Green to discus...Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, sits down with Michael Green to discuss why he views volatility as the ultimate expression of illiquidity and insolvency. Together, they explore how the Fed’s actions in 2020 swiftly stomped out both of these risks, explain how structural dynamics resulted in rapid equity price appreciation over the last year, and take a closer look at volatility and the options market and what Cole describes as a "bull market in fear". They a…
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Clete Willems, a former senior member of Trump's trade team and now a current partner at law firm...Clete Willems, a former senior member of Trump's trade team and now a current partner at law firm Akin Gump, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a deep-dive conversation about global trade relations. Willems outlines how a rivalry between China and the United States is dominating global trade, geopolitical and national security policy, and how the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated tensions between the two behemoths. He also notes Trump's focus on trade and bilateral trade defic…
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Why is china still classified as a "emerging"?Why is china still classified as a "emerging"?
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To Archegos and Beyond: Real Vision Daily Briefing ***AFTER HOURS*** with Weston King of the Hive...There simply was too much going on with this Archegos blow-up, so after today's Daily Briefing with @Max Wiethe (link below), @Weston Nakamura and I took another bite at the apple. Weston goes in greater detail on: -the mechanics of Friday's sell-off (block trades, Goldman, comparison to "Lehman weekend") -the fine workings of the derivatives Archegos was using (certificates for differences and total return swaps) - is it too dramatic to compare to Long-Term Capital Management? (we … -
Lacy Hunt and others make a big deal about the difference between federal reserve deposits and sp...Lacy Hunt and others make a big deal about the difference between federal reserve deposits and spendable dollars. But whoever sold the bonds being bought by the Fed clearly got something spendable, right? And if not, were they somehow coerced to sell the bonds to the Fed?
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Diversity of Thought: Haley Draznin on The ExchangeWelcome @Haley Draznin for her first video appearance on the Exchange, where we discuss her off-camera / behind-the-scenes role at RV (the literal reason we subscribe to RV), the $60 trillion generational wealth transfer underway, alternative investments / death of 60/40. And by far the most important topic addressed on the Exchange, the critical need for women - not just in financial markets, but on the Exchange itself. https://vimeo.com/530564023Haley’s Interviews on Alternative Investments …
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Weekly Influence Point Winners! Wk of 3/22Congratulations to this week's winners! @Matt B @Seahyung Park @Eric Sciberras Out Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here Later this week we will also announce our first Monthly Influence Point Winners! And as reminder we will have 3 NEW WINNERS next week so everyone is still in the game for RV Shop credit!
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MIT Bitcoin/Blockchain ExpoIf you enjoyed the RV Crypto Gathering and are hungry for more, the MIT Bitcoin expo this weekend might be just the thing for you! Seriously, there will likely be some exceptional thinkers in the blockchain space that are part of this conference organized by MIT students. Accumulating knowledge is not a linear process and takes time and effort. The event is completely free and only requires you to put in the time to join. https://medium.com/mitbitcoinclub/mit-bitcoin-expo-2021-the-new-normal-…
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Crypto gathering portfolio/report location?Hi all, can someone please post the link for the crypto gathering voting portfolio. I can't seem to find it. Thank you
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 13/2021: ResultsLast week's performance summary Initial Drawdown in both the Exchange and the Bot's portfolio due to the weakness in Bitcoin and declining VIX. Luckily both portfolios had reduced their Bitcoin allocation, which limited the severity of the dip. During the week markets were mixed (vol up, EM equities down). On Friday came the recovery, which continued over the weekend (my reporting period ends on Friday) and helped the portfolios to recover. Hence, performance-wise a flat week. Exchange portf…
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I would like to add some new topics to the Exchange survey and the Real Vision Bot's portfolio. W...I would like to add some new topics to the Exchange survey and the Real Vision Bot's portfolio. What would you (the community) prefer in terms of assets? The Bot's choice is quite clear, given that it is "the Robot of the altcoin space" (his AI really produced this quote by itself)
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Content/ Guest Request: Ludovic Phalippou. Topic: Private EquityAs the SEC is making it easier for retail to access Private Equity directly and big groups like Vanguard are working on PE products for retail. The PE propaganda has been deployed to talk about the asset class outperformance vs the public markets. As seasoned investors know one of the important rules in investing is Caveat Emptor. Nonetheless, just a few people take the time to look at these outperformance claims critically. In comes Ludovic Phalippou, a french academic at Oxford (+++ points …
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The Piers Kicks interview at the Crypto Gathering was a bit mind bending for me. I know there was...The Piers Kicks interview at the Crypto Gathering was a bit mind bending for me. I know there was also some discussion of the role of traditional assets managers. Does anyone know of/see anything emerging in the space of an asset manager for digital/NFT/e-gaming/digital real estate etc?
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Famed investor Kevin O'Leary, aka Shark Tank’s Mr. Wonderful, joins Real Vision’s Raoul Pal to di...Famed investor Kevin O'Leary, aka Shark Tank’s Mr. Wonderful, joins Real Vision’s Raoul Pal to discuss his investment philosophy and why he rebalanced his portfolio to include 70% equities and 30% fixed income. He increased his weighting in gold to 5%, took a position in Bitcoin for the first time, and stresses the importance of ethical mining and why investors need to know where their Bitcoin is mined. When it comes to private market investments, O'Leary looks for direct-to-consumer companies …
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Part 2 Wrap Up: Gathering Thoughts on The Crypto Gatheringhttps://vimeo.com/529730978Following Part 1 Gathering Thoughts on The Crypto Gathering (see here) @John Ahearn @Seahyung Park @Jeremiah S @Weston Nakamura wrap up Crypto Gathering ‘21 with: •Irresponsibly Long/Short: Debate on replicating the traditional active asset management & hedge fund industry model → crypto assets •Irresponsible Outlooks: What will be on the Crypto Gathering 2022 agenda? (1 year forward looking predictions, risks and opportunities) •Revelations of being Responsi…
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What financial management/ planning app/ software would you recommend?I have my money in a variety of accounts all outside the US (goldmoney, kraken, hsbc, various stock trading accounts, pension funds, etc) as well as varies mortgages on properties in uae and europe. I use a primitive spreadsheet to vaguely track all of this. what does everyone else use? any recommendations on something better?
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he Guys! How will the chart below affect the current cycle? 2017 was definitely different :Dhe Guys! How will the chart below affect the current cycle? 2017 was definitely different :D
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Should $ASH grow his beard back?Should $ASH grow his beard back? -
Tesla & the Bitcoin RefundBasically; If BTC rises, they will pay you back in dollars. If it falls, Tesla gives you the exact quantity of BTC you gave them. (In the end, they will refund you the way it suits them best) 🤷♀️ Goes well with this video (Removed from YT) ;
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Gathering Thoughts On Crypto Gatheringhttps://vimeo.com/529301483Discussion from the Exchange on RV Crypto Gathering with @John Ahearn @Seahyung Park @Jeremiah S @Weston Nakamura •Thoughts on the state of crypto •Thoughts on the event & speakers •Top picks & personal favorites (Pt. 2- Debating the future of digital asset management later) Thanks fo the fun talk gents!
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EARTH 2.0Has anyone in here heard of Earth 2.0? https://earth2.io/ I am a seasoned investor...do not pretend to know everything and I have lost a lot overtime but luckily gain a bit more, so I can afford to lose my money but this feels very much like the beginnings of Bitcoin or NFT's. Self-promotion: Get 5% off with this code: https://earth2.io/ I must admit, owning an entire town with a world-famous surf break, if only digitally, feels pretty special and if phase 2-3-4- et al create an online…
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Equity Volatility Index explained-SPIKES 101For the volatility community: We recently put together a short video to explain the SPIKES Equity Volatility Index. Please have a look over your next coffee break and feel free to reach out with any questions. AND.....for the months of April through June there will be no exchange fees on SPK Futures transactions on MGEX!! SPIKES Options are also available on MIAX.
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Technical analysis (TA) - I see it everywhere on RV - in the Exchange, by Raoul and guests, etc. ...Technical analysis (TA) - I see it everywhere on RV - in the Exchange, by Raoul and guests, etc. Is TA commonly used as a decision making tool by discretionary macro traders? Or, is it just used here on RV as a common denominator to express trade ideas? [FWIW, my background is systematic/quant and I'm relatively new to RV. Also, I emailed in this question to Raoul's last AMA, but was unable to attend, so I have no idea if he responded.] Thx in advance, Lou.
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Updated View & Process + Added Risk Factor(Uploaded the wrong edit yesterday apologies, for some reason had cut out trading short term “against” my core longer term view/position - correct version now in original post & below. @Seahyung Park you can get mad at me now for the public slandering) Attached PDF “slide deck” below https://vimeo.com/528745721Also in addition which I forgot to mention - A major RISK of owning downside PUTS on US equities in general: exchanges shut down trading. This was a risk I was thinking about th…
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Are there resources on what the potential rise in quantum computing will do to crypto/blockchain?...Are there resources on what the potential rise in quantum computing will do to crypto/blockchain? Specially proof-of-work, security, and encryption.
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I'm asking here, because I don't know where else to turn. Why's no 1 frm MSM nor polititan addr. ...I'm asking here, because I don't know where else to turn. Why's no 1 frm MSM nor polititan addr. 'The Great reset"? It's all in the open yet ttlly silenced. I find it quite scary after reading Dr Schwabs books and watching endless videos from IMF and WEF. They're sayn "The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world" where "you will own nothing but be happy." When I try to talk with people about it they all say …
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Advice for NewbiesI have recently joined RV as I have discovered the fascinating world of finance and crypto currency. However, in line with RV's founding mantra I have quickly discovered that 'I know fuck about fuck'. Even though most videos are very interesting I find that I have a hard time making real and practical sense of the content. Accordingly, I have decided to catch up some by starting from scratch. In this post I would like to share with you some of my learning resources that I am using. Maybe this…
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Process Control - Industrial AutomationMy background is Process Controls and Automation. Find it interesting the synergies between the markets and process control. Im up for a discussion or to add anything I can to the conversation. Cheers.
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FIlecoin and SiacoinThere's one area I'd like RV and maybe the panelists to mention that has not been touched upon to my knowledge, that of the cloud and of the world of web 3 and the various alternatives to the centralized solutions we all use today. More specifically I'm thinking about the cloud and two names who seem to be involved and front-running this area, Filecoin and Siacoin. I would love to hear about these projects, where they are in the adoption cycle, I guess very early and how they are expected to pe…
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