The Exchange
Discussion List
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$ETH and the GatheringCurrently struggling with the long-term investment case for $ETH. I have a small position for exposure, but it appears that the risks going forward are significant. I am hoping that the panelists will explore the investment case over the next few days at the Gathering. -
TODAY STARTING 10AM EST: CRYPTO GATHERING DAY 1LAST CHANCE TO SAVE YOUR SEAT... CLICK HERE! and remember to TAG & FOLLOW Crypto Gathering on The Exchange -
This Turkey story never ends;@Weston Nakamura any Turks on the exchange?
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Weekly Influence Point Winners! Wk of 3/15Congratulations to this week's winners! @Oliver Anderson @Seth Dingle @Dean W Out Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners (in 2 weeks) will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here As a reminder we will have 3 NEW WINNERS next week so you can still win next Monday! -
Something a bit different... Which books are you guys reading right now?This one is on deck for me 😎.
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Does the SLR expiration mean banks must buy bonds?I've been following this SLR expiration story for a few weeks and have been trying to understand exactly what it requires of the banks once it comes back into effect on march 31st. Prevailing sentiment in media articles imply that the SLR coming back into effect is bond bearish because "banks would have to sell their bonds". However, this makes no sense from my admittedly amateur standpoint. If the SLR's original motivation was to ensure that banks had sufficient assets to back the…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 12/2021: ResultsPerformance-wise last week was relatively uneventful for the Exchange and the Bot portfolio. Both portfolios had roughly the same allocation of 25% Bitcoin, which was the only notable driver of performance. As of Friday, other gains were eaten up by the allocation to Volatility (approx. 7% for each portfolio), which came down over the week. So what's next for the portfolios? Important: I decided to move the performance update (total performance chart) to Wednesday. The Yahoo data for some of t…
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Can anyone please post their favourite real vision videos for newbies to help better understand t...Can anyone please post their favourite real vision videos for newbies to help better understand the markets? Thanks
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Best place to trade futures for US retailHey everyone, had a quick question on the above topic. I looked into cme and ice so far and I can’t seem to find a way to trade on their platforms without being a member. Any help or solutions provided would be greatly appreciated!
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Is the BTC market concentrated in the hands of a relatively small group of early Bitcoiners? If s...Is the BTC market concentrated in the hands of a relatively small group of early Bitcoiners? If so, what are the implications of that? Any thoughts or insights, Real Vision Exchangers?
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March 19 Daily BriefingGreat Daily Briefing tonight. Powell really does look like he is playing chicken with the markets. The elephants in the room here are the following surreal and grim facts (i) Treasury has to issue new debts and refinance old ones to the tune of a gazillion gazillion dollars between now and eternity, and (ii) yields are going higher. YCC with “American characteristics” seems inevitable. I think the Fed wants to pin the YYC-controlled curve at lower rates across the curve and will wait for a…
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This bit explains so much about IPO's and the hype machine on wallstreet:From a 2019 Trade Idea Video on Disney with David Trainer https://www.realvision.com/shows/trade-ideas/videos/content-is-king I feel like this explains so much of what we see in markets. Never forget, look at what the incentives are: Wallstreet is a fee and flows driven business.
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Is having Kyle Bass as an interviewer an example of: 1) welcoming all points of view; or 2) RV fa...Raoul Pal's stance is that he and Real Vision do not take political sides. RV welcomes all points of view including those which are controversial as varying perspectives helps us better understand markets. However and in light of the shootings in Atlanta and the increasing amount of violence against Asian-Americans, is there a point in which RV should consider that Kyle Bass' rhetoric isn't solely about markets but perpetuates something else? In Kyle Bass' most recent stint as an interviewer,… -
Following BOJ Policy Review today....HOW TO YCC: Lessons from BOJ (Part 2 of 2) SEE HOW TO YCC PART 1 HERE (Turn your sound on for 5 seconds of Kuroda insight ↓ )
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National security commission on AI (NSCAI) report on AI is out.For those interested in AI, autonomous vehicles, 5G, Quantum computing, bio-informatics, semi's ... Here is a link to a report assessing the american capabilities Regarding AI. https://reports.nscai.gov/final-report/table-of-contents/ It's huge but there is an exec summary. Here is eric smith (yes,the ex google ceo) breaking down this 700 page report on the pacific century podcast (Hoover institution). https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkLnBvZGJlYW4uY29tL3BhY2lmaWNjZW50dXJ…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 12/2021Next round! This week's edition of the @Real Vision Exchange sentiment survey is live. Btw, upon frequent request, we added Raoul + Bot "Irresponsibly long" stickers to the shop! The Exchange Hive mind portfolio is still doing very well. Slight losses on the long VIX position. Bitcoin did retract a bit, but it has already bounced back as I'm writing this. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY I'll also discovered that for performance reporting, pulling data from Yahoo Finance is not a go…
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How to YCC: Lessons From Bank of Japan (pt. 1 of 2)Exchange Exclusive from Tokyo https://vimeo.com/525237763Part 1 of 2: •Why BOJ matters •Brief History on How BOJ Got To Manipulating the JGB Market •BOJ Governor Kuroda •How YCC works •Japan YCC ≠ US YCC 10y JGB Yield under BOJ Gov Kuroda BOJ Gov Kuroda, Fed Yellen, ECB Draghi Jackson Hole (not real quotes, maybe Kuroda’s is real) also check out Real Vision Investor Tutorials: UNDERSTANDING YIELD CURVE CONTROL
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There are now security tags around meat in Brazilian supermarkets. Is this what inflation does?this is basically a 15 USD piece.. https://twitter.com/mateusalp/status/1371973347832176643?s=20 https://br.noticias.yahoo.com/carne-com-alarme-antifurto-viraliza-na-internet-150133567.html Not sure if true but some person on twitter claims you can pay your meat in different chunks, basically a type of credit (called parcelar in BR). 4 days ago I noticed how the real had lost 50% of its value (vs the USD) in 3 years time. Wild stuff. https://www.economist.com/big-mac-i…
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Content Request, Can RV do a video/interview on the ECO currency (proposed common currency of a b...I wonder what the state of affairs is with the decoupling of the CFA currency and creating the common African currency. Like, I had no Idea France controlled the central banks is Africa like this: On 20 May 2020, the Council of Ministers of the French Republic adopted a bill according to which the Central Bank of West African States, the central bank managing the currency of the eight nations of the West African Economic and Monetary Union which use the West African CFA franc, will no lo…
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Hello everyone. I have a question regarding monetary debasement. In recent interviews Raoul has s...Hello everyone. I have a question regarding monetary debasement. In recent interviews Raoul has suggested he thinks the coming inflation in the U.S. will be temporary, not secular. So for one I'm curious how QE and fiscal stimulus ad infinitum would not lead to secular inflation? Additionally, I'm curious what monetary debasement looks aside from secular inflation. Raoul believes the inflation will be temporary but still makes comments about monetary debasement occurring. So if not inflation, h…
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Tomorrow -Bank of Japan, Tokyo Nearly a half decade ago in Sept 2016, BOJ announced a "policy review" ahead of the policy meeting, and then they rolled out this new strange policy called Yield Curve Control. I had to learn, advise on and trade it in real time- and once I did, I realized nobody has any clue how YCC works over the next several years to this day (they called it "stealth tapering" - very stupid). This week we have FOMC (Wed) where Powell will take questions on YCC an…
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Position sizing is one of the most important aspects of investing, and depending on if it is done...Position sizing is one of the most important aspects of investing, and depending on if it is done correctly or incorrectly, it alone can be the difference between success and failure of the course of individual trades and even entire careers. Unfortunately, there are no hard and fast rules for position sizing as your style, time horizon, psychology and even differences between individual securities can drastically change what is the correct position size. In this episode of "Investor Tutor…
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I've done well with crypto over the years but looking to move some money into other investments. ...I've done well with crypto over the years but looking to move some money into other investments. I've been an avid RV watcher for a year now and excited to test new waters and learn more about them. What industry do you recommend?
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Narratives around the reflation trade and asset prices are currently pointing towards a full reco...Narratives around the reflation trade and asset prices are currently pointing towards a full recovery and a period of extended growth as the world exits lockdowns. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Daniel Lacalle, chief economist and CIO at Tressis, argues that this is being fueled by nothing more than hope and that, although this is a recovery, the world will return to the same state of secular stagnation and low growth that existed pre-COVID. Lacalle explains why…
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Weekly Influence Point Winners! Wk of 3/8Congratulations to this week's winners! @Matthew Lansing @thomas cullis @Dani Ben Yair Out Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners (in 2 weeks) will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here As a reminder we will have 3 NEW WINNERS next week so everyone is still in the game for next Monday!
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THIS WEEK ON REAL VISION...Real Vision presents a new weekly show called "The Vision" - your guid...THIS WEEK ON REAL VISION... Real Vision presents a new weekly show called "The Vision" - your guide to this week's videos coming out on Real Vision. Peter Cooper presents the current macro backdrop and then discusses the upcoming programming, which will feature Daniel Lacalle, Jamie Catherwood, Kyle Bass, Peter Smith, Pierre Andurand, and more.
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Hi all, Have been lurking around for a bit on the exchange enjoying some of ideas floating around...Hi all, Have been lurking around for a bit on the exchange enjoying some of ideas floating around. Decided to finally tap into this vast pool of experience. I am a novice institutional EMFX option trader seeking some guidance from experienced institutional options traders around. If you can help or know someone who can, please do let me know.
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Exchange Week Roundup: Yields & Curve Controlhttps://vimeo.com/523517057 TPX Banks Weekly Roundup Videos on Yields, Yield Curve Control • Mike Green & Harley Bassman Video: Rates Volatility and Convexity + Harley Bassman Slide Deck Link + @Craig P Post on Yield Curve • Dominic Frisby and Raoul Pal Video : Taxes = Everything • Chris Whalen and Edward Harrison Video: Update on Banks • Peter Boockvar, James Bianco, and Ed Harrison Video: YCC • RVDB Fri w/ Ash Bennington Raoul Pal Video: Painting = Canvas + Paint + Fucking …
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I am from the United States and have a Coinbase account. I am in search of the safest exchange t...I am from the United States and have a Coinbase account. I am in search of the safest exchange to purchase the Audius token. Any recommendations? Can U.S. citizens open a Binance account? Binance.US does not support this token.
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MathYCC eminent? SPY/US10Y The 10year yield is the flow regulator of the US economy since before Bernanke realized It, maybe since '95 when macro decided that the stock market looked pretty good given lower yields and todays environment being visible 25 years ago https://www.tradingview.com/x/a8IXn6lP/ Due to parabolic nature of our current world, I used a log format. Looks like a spring in Dec. '18 an BU to me with choppy post 5 wave crud to signal the beginning of a new trend.
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 11/2021: ResultsThis week I'm on right on schedule again with the @Real Vision Exchange survey results. The Real Vision Exchange portfolio had a great week. 33.33% of the portfolion was allocated to Bitcoin, the largest value in the history of the portfolio and a winning strategy. The Bot made some good calls on Bitcoin and Equities, but being long the 10y Treasury ETF and Gold hurt. Nevertheless he finally managed to put some distance between his Portfolio and the S&P. GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE…
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Raoul's "Ask me Anything" with Max WietheUnfortunately I missed most of Raul's "Ask me Anything" with Max Wiethe. @Raoul Pal @Max Wiethe. I don't see the recorded version of it in videos section. I really hope you'll put it on Real Vision. If it's already on here, could someone please send me a link?
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A wall of money, regulation, and rapidly shifting global priorities has already drastically chang...A wall of money, regulation, and rapidly shifting global priorities has already drastically changed how companies around the world manage their carbon emissions. As well, it has affected how governments incentivize good behavior and drive innovation and, in the process, created a tradeable market in carbon emissions credits. In this interview with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal, Eric Lee and Francesco Martoccia, both energy strategists at Citigroup, help break down the opportunities a…
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Trying to execute a portfolio such as the dragon portfolio or exchange portfolio while considerin...Trying to execute a portfolio such as the dragon portfolio or exchange portfolio while considering tax implications (Australia)? (further details below)
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 11/2021This week's edition of the @Real Vision Exchange sentiment survey is live. Make sure to cast your vote. The Exchange has really been killing it lately. Raoul is following this closely, so make sure to keep up the great performance. Just kidding, please tell us your view on the markets. If that happens to perform well, even better! CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1369421400956665859 If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find t…
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Exchange Poll: We want to continue to make this Exchange experience better, so what do you want m...Exchange Poll: We want to continue to make this Exchange experience better, so what do you want more of?
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Good & Free global tax tools:Rv has a video of a Pirate interviewing Dominic Frisby on taxes https://exchange.realvision.com/post/60485a26df82fcfe0cb145e5 Therefore an opportune time to share some useful recourses. If you are interested in what and how you would be taxed in a different country here is your one-stop-shop: https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/ if you are into comparisons KPMG has another tool but more limited in scope: https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/services/tax/tax-tools-and-resources/tax-rates-online.html …
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Lyndon Lea, founder of Lion Capital, has made a name for himself as a private equity investor in ...Lyndon Lea, founder of Lion Capital, has made a name for himself as a private equity investor in the consumer goods sector by both investing in and engaging with the management of some of the best consumer brands in the world. In this interview with James Rasteh, founder and CIO of Coast Capital, Lea outlines the insights he’s gained from his investments in brands like Jimmy Choo, Wagamama, Kettle Foods, and AllSaints. They also discuss Lea’s outlook for SPACs as someone who was using the vehic…
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Even before COVID, global deficits had already expanded—but in the last year, they have exploded ...Even before COVID, global deficits had already expanded—but in the last year, they have exploded to levels that almost guarantee increases in taxes. We can already see the effects as high-net-worth individuals and businesses leave high tax areas like California for lower tax areas like Florida, Texas, and the Cayman Islands. Dominic Frisby, author of "Daylight Robbery: How Tax Shaped Our Past and Will Change Our Future," sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to discu…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 10/2021: ResultsThe survey results are coming in a bit late lately. Sorry about that, markets a keeping me busy. Anyway, how did last week's survey turn out? GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE CHARTS 1. Market View and Sentiment Equity sentiment made quite a comeback and turned bullish. After already two days of positive performance this week, it looks like the Exchange made a good call here. Gold is more and more out of favour, Volatility is less bullish and the usual suspects (Commodities, Bitcoin) st…
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Real Vision presents a new weekly show called "The Vision" - your guide to this week's videos com...Real Vision presents a new weekly show called "The Vision" - your guide to this week's videos coming out on Real Vision. Peter Cooper presents the current macro backdrop and then discusses the upcoming programming, which will feature Harley Bassman, Mike Green, Dominic Frisby, James Rasteh, Lyndon Lea, Chris Whalen, and more.
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What speed do you listen to RV interviews at? I find I better absorb content at faster speeds per...What speed do you listen to RV interviews at? I find I better absorb content at faster speeds perhaps as it forces me to concentrate (and not try to multi task!).
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Weekly Influence Point Winners! Wk of 3/1Congratulations to this week's winners! @Jaymes Rosenthal @Bradley Snyder @Theodore Boydston Out Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here As a reminder we will have 3 NEW winners next week so everyone is still in the game for next Monday!
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With bonds selling off alongside equities and the volatility of both asset classes rising, there ...With bonds selling off alongside equities and the volatility of both asset classes rising, there is perhaps no better time to hear from The Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman. In this interview with Logica Capital Advisors partner, chief strategist, and PM Mike Green, Bassman outlines his view that this move higher in rates is the bond market finally moving towards the "right" price after a decade of interest rate suppression. Green and Bassman discuss the positive and negative c…
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Learning How To Learn: Jeremiah & AshI've said for some time now- knowledgable as he is, @Jeremiah S''s real skill and talent is his ability to learn finance. If there's one thing we can learn from Jeremiah, it's to never stop learning, growing, expanding. I also [email protected] Bennington as an expert in expertise- the value extractor of value extractors, and unleash him onto Jeremiah. Watch 3 individuals with a combined ZERO years of academic finance under our belts discuss learning how to learn a multifaceted, complex field wit…
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Asking for a friend...Is Milton a bot? https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/8e015d73-1085-41e9-8431-1f86a445aa79
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Will Treasury Yields spiking to 1.6% cause the VIX to finally go >40 for the De-Leveraging event ...Will Treasury Yields spiking to 1.6% cause the VIX to finally go >40 for the De-Leveraging event to happen? Would love to see everyone's thoughts and plays. TLT bonds seems to be struggling, everyone else have equity puts like $SPY?
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 10/2021By the way, the Real Vision Exchange Survey 10/2021 is live! Don't forget to vote Check out this months edition of "Inside the hive mind" by @Weston Nakamura to get more insights into recent performance of the Exchange portfolio, sentiment and positioning. If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday …
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Everyone agrees that data is the oil of the 21st century. But how to invest? Charles Li, recently...Everyone agrees that data is the oil of the 21st century. But how to invest? Charles Li, recently retired chief executive of the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) and the creator of the brilliant but very complex Hong Kong - Shanghai Stock Connect, and later the Hong Kong Shenzhen Stock Connect, explains the investment opportunities in this sector. Due to its population and less stringent views on privacy, China could well become the world's largest exporter of data—health data and financ…
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Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, returns to Real Vision to share his latest view...Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, returns to Real Vision to share his latest views on economic growth, interest rates, commodities, and tech stocks. Citing everything from soaring retail sales figures to elevated levels of personal savings, Vallee projects that economic growth for U.S. GDP could be as high as 12%. In this reflationary environment, Vallee expects that bonds will continue to sell-off and that energy stocks will thrive while technology stocks will fare poorly. Film…
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3/4 ARKG Trading Analysis/ObservationsFollowing up on yesterdays post: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/ark-liquidity-risk---arkg-analysis-60405fbc3ad8d62e1eb268f9?post=604128e7df7cb7692d7b5146 Here is the ARKG chart updated for today, updated with a column for each stocks performance during the day, A/H, and aggregated, as well as daily volume - as I feel each are important metrics to evaluate as well. I'll repost the comment I wrote this morning analyzing the data, and add my thoughts on todays trades below: Fr…
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📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE: Vol. 3 March 2021https://vimeo.com/519754634In this issue: •Thought Bubble: The Exchange Discusses “Is Everything A Bubble?” •The Exchange + RVDB w/ @Ash Bennington @Jack Farley @Nick Correa •NEW FEATURE ROLLOUT: Influence Points (explained by @Farrell Murphy original post And see my reference example for how to effectively answer a newbie question - pay attention to the reaction more so than the answer •The Exchange Portfolio Commentary. NOTE: the real portfolio analysis from @Moritz Heiden is on hi…
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Generational Wealth: How to preserve and grow your $$$We are in the midst of the single greatest generational wealth transfer in history! In the upcoming years, TRILLIONS of dollars and assets will be passed from baby boomers to later generations…$68 trillion in the US alone... When it comes to the transfer of generational wealth, what are the pitfalls & opportunities this changing of the guarding presents? How can families be intentional in how they preserve, reinvest & grow wealth in today’s investment landscape? I spoke with Mike Boyd…
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Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, returns to Real Vision to share his latest view...Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, returns to Real Vision to share his latest views on economic growth, interest rates, commodities, and tech stocks. Citing everything from soaring retail sales figures to elevated levels of personal savings, Vallee projects that economic growth for U.S. GDP could be as high as 12%. In this reflationary environment, Vallee expects that bonds will continue to sell-off and that energy stocks will thrive while technology stocks will fare poorly. Film…
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ARK Liquidity Risk - ARKG AnalysisI've noticed a lot of chatter about how illiquid ARKK is, but not nearly enough about ARKG - which still has shares available to borrow (and at a much cheaper rate) and lower IV's due to lack of TSLA exposure, despite hiving a .99 correlation to ARKK thus far in 2021, and being substantially more illiquid. In an effort to track a put option / short position I got into on ARKG, I started pulling the CVS file from the ARK website each day with the holdings of each ETF (ARKG, ARKK, ARKW, ARKQ, …
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Writing off RV subscriptionCan anyone give me an idea how to write off my RV Pro subscription? I am a US based investor, but I do not have an "investment business". I am hoping to figure out a way to write off my RV Pro membership. My accountant doesn't seem to think I can do that after the changes in the law in 2018. I have another business, but it is in the "arts & crafts" category :) and totally not related to investments. Any ideas?
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Does anyone have any recommendations on generational wealth planning books?Does anyone have any recommendations on generational wealth planning books?
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WHAT’S REALLY DRIVING CHINA’S STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES?Taylor Fravel and Michael Greenhttps://vimeo.com/518634011M. Taylor Fravel, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the MIT Security Studies Program, sits down with his long-time friend Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors to discuss a multitude of factors affecting China's strategic objectives. Although they examine certain aspects like demographics and the trajectory of growth for China's military, the focus of the interview is on geography and how China’s large number of land borders and thei…
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The greatest generational wealth transfer in history is currently taking place. In the upcoming y...The greatest generational wealth transfer in history is currently taking place. In the upcoming years, trillions of dollars and assets will be passed from baby boomers to later generations. Real Vision's Haley Draznin is joined by Mike Boyd, an Australian expat living in Singapore who specializes in the world of multi-generational wealth creation, family enterprise, and family office investing. Generational wealth typically doesn't surpass the third generation, but Boyd discusses how to set up …
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Raoul: this may be of interest to you to track RV numbers etchttps://click.exct.empirefinancialresearch.com/?qs=d22ae780acc70d010318ec1e2c4bf848e1d35fbd40cb222677b83cded2c648f7cb9b256be0efda808df7d13898b1d643816cf32623afd95a Raoul, you did an interview last February with Dan Ferris of Stansberry Research. That’s how I heard of you. Porter Stansberry started the firm and grew it with buddies in the business. Similar to what RV is sort of doing but the crux is financial research with paid subscribers. they just agreed to monetize by merging with a …
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Martin ArmstrongI stumbled across some youtube videos of him, by accident. I noticed Raoul interviewed him in 2016, well worth a watch. https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/interview-with-martin-armstrong Maybe it's time to bring him back? -
Can someone explain to me why vanna is postive for calls and short puts and vice versa?I am reading more on second derivatives and something is baffling me. Nearly every page that talks about vanna(really just a handful) all say calls and short puts have positive vanna and short calls and long puts have negative vanna. why is this? If I am long a call, yes I want the IV to keep going up to increase the value of the call. This makes sense. If I am short a put, I don't want IV's to go up, therefore shouldn't I want vanna to be negative? Similarly, for gamma, long puts and calls ar…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 9/2021: ResultsA review on the Real Vision Exchange portfolio in February #How did the survey turn out after two weeks of Bitcoin sell off, dips in tech and some crazy trend in 10y yields (1.5%! on Friday)? Quite solid actually. True, both portfolios took a hit last week, especially the Exchange due to their large Bitcoin allocation. However, performance in February was still much better than one would have expected from pure market action. After a bet on increasing vol turned south in the first week of Feb…
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Weekly Influence Point Winners! Wk of 2/22Congratulations to the Winners! @John Ahearn @Matt Daniell @Sam Colt Out Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here As a reminder we will have 3 NEW winners next week so everyone is still in the game for next Monday!
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Hodling art or the art of hodlingThose of you who have been long time subscribers already know. The Twoquants (@Moritz Seibert and I) like to talk about pieces of algorithmic art in our portfolio updates. Such as the graphics on our website or our all-time favorite by Manolo Gamboa. And we like alternative asset classes. Not just since Janet Yellen promised to "act big" on financial easing at her nomination hearing to be US Treasury Secretary in January. This "spend now - pay later" attitude is well know…
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Legendary independent investor Jim Rogers joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to share...Legendary independent investor Jim Rogers joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to share his outlook on markets and the lessons he learned on his storied career. Rogers tells Pal that this current market environment, marked by record-low mutual fund cash levels and high levels of investing on margin, reminds him somewhat of the conditions prior to the "Black Monday" sell-off on October 19, 1987, which actually occurred on Rogers’ birthday. Rogers stresses the importance of th…
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Jamie McDonald, former portfolio manager at Point72, breaks down the mechanics, desired effects, ...Jamie McDonald, former portfolio manager at Point72, breaks down the mechanics, desired effects, and unintended consequences of yield curve control. With rates already cut to zero and quantitative easing clearly not "temporary," questions arise about what tools central banks have left. Yield curve control may very well be the next tool coming out of a dwindling arsenal of monetary policy tools. Some central banks like the BOJ have already implemented yield curve control, but questions…
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Why aren't there links to easily get to https://shop.realvision.com thru out the site? Like perh...Why aren't there links to easily get to https://shop.realvision.com thru out the site? Like perhaps put a link on the bottom footer of the main page? -
In this interview with Mutiny Fund CIO Jason Buck, Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Cap...https://rvtv.io/3bMM07w In this interview with Mutiny Fund CIO Jason Buck, Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital, discusses his unique investing framework and the experiences that forged it. Brent and Jason highlight the insight Brent was able to take away from a career full of successes and the inevitable mistakes that help shape the answer to the question, “What type of investor am I?” They also focus on Brent’s “Dollar Milkshake” thesis as well as the specifics of portfolio cons…
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Dropbox Option StrategiesDropbox announced a convertible note offering a few days ago. Overall number is $1.135 Billion. Latest Q4 2020 results were solid earnings per share rose 75.00% year over year to $0.28, which beat the estimate of $0.24. Revenue of $504,100,000 up by 13.03% year over year, which beat the estimate of $498,640,000. So maybe their intention is to follow Microstrategy and use the proceeds to buy bitcoin? They suffered from the recent tech sell off, but price action seemed steady before Short …
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RealTalkHey all, what would you say if we had a GPT-3-like system on RV? It could be trained on freely available financial data and specifically on the high quality data of RV transcripts. I call RealTalk. (For those unfamiliar, it is a general purpose natural language tool) Additionally we could use some waveglow type on the audio in combination with the timestamped transcripts. I already wrote a couple scripts to segment and structure the data.
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LIVE NOW: Cocktail Party With Raoul (and Friends)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8upuVwLVFqw
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The Exchange Welcomes Ash Benningtonhttps://vimeo.com/517278239★ See my previous notes referred to: • Key Levels: VXN > 36 & UVXY > 10 • Potential Major SPX Whiplash Ahead ★ For more on gamma, see Explain Like I'm a Golden Retriever; (PIlot Episode), Chasing Gamma (link)by @Lisa Gee @Seahyung Park ★ Check out the Weekly Influence Point Winners Here @Jeremiah S @Moritz Heiden @Craig P AND... stay tuned for March Edition of Inside the Hive Mind of the Real Vision Exchange coming out next week! For those who haven…
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RoboticsHello Hive, Robotics are the future. Can we begin the discussion about potential investments? What companies should we be looking at? We can blend those that are currently being traded vs. those which have a potential for an IPO. ISRG - Intuitive Surgical TWOU - 2U inc. 6506 - Yaskawa These are only a few examples, but want to learn more. Does anybody have suggestions? Thanks, -Kazu
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VIX has been rising again.. Raoul's thoughts on the reflation reversal happening?Noticing that VIX is rising and everything seems choppy with weird treasury yield rates. Can someone break down what's happening and thoughts on if its signaling the 2 week liquidation correction that Raoul hinted at last month? Curious if I should wait for the crypto market to correct even more before buying the dip.
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A market wizard + one QuantUnknown no longer - Jason Shapiro interviewed by TwoQuants @Moritz Seibert. If anyone needs a rundown of + practical use cases on CFTC COT positioning data (including BTC futures short positioning → BTC rally), among many other critical lessons for individual investors/traders up against institutions, you need to watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_8xE92WtGw
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Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, welcomes Marcelo Lopez, managing partner at ...https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/uranium-the-most-asymmetric-trade-ive-seen-in-my-life/ Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, welcomes Marcelo Lopez, managing partner at L2 Capital Partners, for a deep-dive on Uranium both as an energy source as well as an asset class. A former engineer, Lopez has built a model mapping every Uranium mine on earth and shares with Alden why he thinks supply will be constrained for years to come. Alden highlights the key role nu…
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Should the Real Vision Bot also start scraping the Exchange to create insights from the posts her...Should the Real Vision Bot also start scraping the Exchange to create insights from the posts here and directly measure user sentiment?
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Real Vision Exchange Survey 09/2021Make sure to vote in this week's @Real Vision Exchange survey and determine the direction of the Hive mind portfolio. If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Results will be made available on the weekend. I'll post results here as well as on Twitter. Once we have a decent history of sentiment, I'…
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New RV Series IdeaJust an idea but would we all enjoy a series of interviews asking "what's the big question?"? I personally feel that there is so much noise at the moment that it's difficult to know what to stay focussed on.
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“PRICKING” POTENTIAL BUBBLES IN STOCKS AND BONDS · John Hussman and Milton BergAre stocks in a bubble? How about bonds? Perhaps Bitcoin, too? Milton Berg, founder and CIO of Milton Berg Advisory, welcomes John Hussman, president of Hussman Strategic Advisors, for a conversation on these important questions. Hussman uses his custom equity risk-premium model to explain why, over the next twelve years, he expects the S&P 500 to return an average of negative 4%. Hussman compares the current moment to various historical periods where the S&P 500 underperformed Treasury…
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WES GRAY: AN INSIDE LOOK AT ETF CONSTRUCTION AND LAUNCHESTony Greer, founder of TG Macro, is joined by Wes Gray, CEO of Alpha Architect, a research-intensive asset management firm with a focus on high-conviction value and momentum factor exposures. They break down the asset management business and his approach to evidence-based investing and systemic decision making. Gray served as an active-duty marine in Iraq and opens up about how his military background influences his investment strategies. CLICK HERE TO WATCH
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Weekly Influence Point Winners!I am excited to announce our first Weekly Influence Point Winners! As a reminder our Top 3 Weekly Influence Point earners will win $10 towards Real Vision Shop and the Top 5 Monthly Influence Point Earners will win $25 towards Real Vision Shop. See Details Here The winners will receive a separate email with their prize. We will have 3 new winners next week so everyone is still in the game! Congratulations to the Winners: @Jeremiah S @Moritz Heiden @Craig P
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To RV Team - can you include the "Speed" option on videos via the Apple TV RV App. I tend to wat...To RV Team - can you include the "Speed" option on videos via the Apple TV RV App. I tend to watch videos at speeds greater than normal.
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Short term put/ put spread on ICE ExchangeWhile ICE is in an upward trend, it might make sense to hedge for potential fallout from trading losses due to the spike in energy prices "After the market closed Friday, stunned traders scrambled to work out how much additional funds they would need to set aside for the following week. Some trading houses were extremely nervous. An executive at one said he was worried that some counterparties could go bust and leave his firm with positions to fill on the spot market." Source En…
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Any RealVision content on "How to Spend It"?Hello all, I'm a recently-joined Plus member. I was wondering if there's any existing/archive content on "how to spend it"? Not in a fast cars / gold watches sense, more about conscious spending and turning some of our hard-earned capital into meaningful quality of life improvements. It's something I've thought about recently after reading an interesting book, "Die with Zero" by Bill Perkins.- maybe someone like that would make for a great interview? Thanks,
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 8/2021: ResultsInflation, no inflation, deflation - while central bankers are still arguing, the Exchange seems to hedge their bets by believing in asset price inflation combined with a healthy dose of commodity and bitcoin exposure. The more old school inflation hedge, gold, seems to be out of favor - probably that's justified given that some sources say gold offers only short term protection against rising prices. Let's have a look at this week's survey results: GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE CHARTS …
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Looking to get a nice computer set up for trading, could use a reccomendation from real professio...Looking to get a nice computer set up for trading, could use a reccomendation from real professionals please and thank you!!
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Axel Weber, former president of the Bundesbank on "will inflation make a comeback""In current consumer-price calculations, rising goods prices are partly offset by falling prices for services such as air travel. But in reality, pandemic-related restrictions mean that consumption of many services has fallen sharply; significantly fewer people are flying, for example. Many people’s actual consumption baskets have thus become more expensive than the basket statistical authorities use to calculate inflation. So, true inflation rates are currently often higher than the offic…
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Great article about the Eurodollar (offshore dollar) markethttps://thelykeion.com/primer-the-eurodollar-market/
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What Put Options should I buy to hedge?Obviously a very open-ended question. Hoping for a lot of different solutions...
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Shooting to the moon or eating some temporary dust?Just wanted ask opinions on crypto this week. We have had an amazing week so far where we have seen some alt coins do 100 plus percent and bitcoin shooting upwards. Do you guys this that the shoot is too much too quick and we will see a minor correction or can you just see this stabling off?
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Just thought I'd post this short video from twitter on how we as a society are dealing with this ...https://twitter.com/i/status/1362427619275341831 -
“IS EVERYTHING A BUBBLE?” WRAP-UP – HIGHLIGHTS AND TAKEAWAYS FOR TODAY’S MARKETS (LIVE)https://vimeo.com/514396290
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Does anyone still think March 170 calls are going to be hit?Maybe we should avoid 30 year bond talk until the FED announces YCC on the long end or the TLT price is above the 200 day MA Jan 27, 2021 @ 01:40 I think it was Howard Marks that said, "there is not a lot of difference between being early and being wrong." Michael Gayed said something like, "there is a difference between destination and the path to that destination." TLT has been making lower highs, and lower lows since august. I'm not going to wake up to TLT at 200…
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Array TechHello, I'm looking at Array Technologies( Ticker: ARRY). But, do dividend. https://arraytechinc.com/white-papers/
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House Hearing tomorrow on GME is a very big deal, & shows how finance has changed. What/why I wr...Big day tomorrow in Congress with direct implications on ALL of us individual investors, House Financial Services Committee Hearing "Game Stopped? Who Wins and Loses When Short Sellers, Social Media, and Retail Investors Collide" Witnesses * Mr. Keith Gill (aka DeepFuckingValue aka Roaring Kitty) * Mr. Kenneth Griffin Chief Executive Officer, Citadel LLC * Mr. Steve Huffman Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder,, Reddit * Mr. Gabriel Plotkin Chief Executive Officer, Melvin Capital M…
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