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Discussion List
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RVDB SPECIAL EDITION: CHAOS RULES IN D.C. feat. Lyn Alden, Ash Bennington, Ed Harrison, Jack Farl...In this unique edition of the Real Vision Daily Briefing, managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington give a breaking news update on the unprecedented events unfolding in Washington, D.C., whether or not they will have impact on the markets having closed at record high, and if they are reflective of events on the ground or are divorced from political and social reality. Then, Real Vision’s Nick Correa discusses the ADP jobs report and the possibility of a jobless recovery for t… -
Is it a coincidence that Monetary Supply and the S&P500 are both up exactly 65% since their March...Is it a coincidence that Monetary Supply and the S&P500 are both up exactly 65% since their March lows? And, does the increase in CPI, since abandoning the golden standard, showcases the effect of a weakening US economy? -
What do you want to ask Lyn Alden?Hi all, today I'll be interviewing Lyn Alden on the Daily Briefing. What do you want to know? Please let me know your questions. This briefing will be more timely and news-focused than her Expert View which aired today. -
Need advice on wins.Dear Hive, So, RV has completed changed the calculus of my financial life in ~60 days. I'm 41, and my career in software has always made enough that by any measure I was doing just fine financially. Worked, paid bills, travelled, ate well, some charity stuff, etc... I was expecting that the RV process was gonna be more about slow/steady incremental asset growth. By no means am I complaining, but can anyone offer up some advice on what I'm supposed to do with the excess money? Is there … -
LYN ALDEN’S 2021 MACRO OUTLOOKLyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategies shares her 2021 thesis for the U.S. dollar, interest rates, inflation, and growth, providing a strategic update of how her expectations for these key macro variables influence her outlook on assets such as commodities, EM equities, real estate, gold, and bitcoin. CLICK HERE TO WATCH
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Daily Briefing · Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Tony GreerTONY GREER ON OIL’S SURGE, LIQUIDITY BONANZAS, AND “INFLATION HEDGE PARADISE” CLICK HERE TO WATCH
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Uranium Primer BofAFor those like me that don't know the first thing about Uranium except maybe that ze Germans don't want it anymore, the French love it and the Iranians would be more than happy to use it and everyone hates them for it Here is a usefull primer: Kazakstan = the United states of Uranium.
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DARIUS DALE’S OUTLOOK FOR 2021Darius Dale, managing director of Hedgeye Risk Management For the near-term, bond yields will likely rise as the economy enters a "Quad 2" regime (where growth and inflation are accelerating at the same time), and as such, equities and credit will perform broadly while duration-sensitive equities could "get smoked." However, a slowdown in growth in the third quarter of 2020 could derail a market rally and separate stocks with true and lasting earning potential from those wh…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 1/2021: ResultsLast week marked the start of our first survey for 2021 (at least part of the week). As each week, Real Visioin Bot asked survey participant about their market outlook for the first month and first quarter of 2021. Here are the results: Executive Summary * EM Equities are back in favor after only a brief loss in confidence the week before. The outlook for European equities is still bearish (however a bit less negative). US Equities are slightly bullish short term but near neutral for the firs…
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MIKE GREEN’S 2021 BIG PICTURE OUTLOOKMike Green of Logica Capital kicks off 2021 for Real Vision viewers with this big picture interview taking stock of an eventful 2020 and looking forward to 2021 Click here to watch
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Books! So Many Books!So I'm using Raoul's booklist to supplement to my macro journey. I've worked my way thru 4 so far and my New Years resolution is to get thru all of them by 2022. With each book I really come away with this feeling that I've added new things to my macro utility belt that I'll eventually be using to start developing my own macro framework. Anyway, here's where I'm at (green checks are completed):
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Can someone explain to me why bond yields and bond prices have an inverse relationship?Can someone explain to me why bond yields and bond prices have an inverse relationship?
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Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 13)The last survey for this year is live. Before you are getting ready to pop some Champagne and toast to the New Year, make sure to participate and tell the Real Vision Bot your market view for the first month and first quarter in 2021. Let's hope the only bubbles we are seeing in 2021 are the ones from the new roaring 20s' that Goldman Sachs predicted. Despite some optimism, @Moritz Seibert and I read up on the subject and discovered that the last roaring 20s' did not end that well. By the way…
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The Discourse 2020 Finale: Moritz Heiden, Two QuantsResults are in: +22.78%, we crushed it. We, the Exchange, outperformed the Real Vision Bot Portfolio (RV interviewed guests- yes, the very people we are here to seek financial guidance from) by 2x the percentage points (RV Bot +11.30%). Oh, and we also destroyed SPX by +16%, and that’s with a healthy SPX +6% rally, as well as sidestepping the entire US election volatility. Find out how we did it in my discussion with @Moritz Heiden of Two Quants (the other quant being @Moritz Seibert), br…
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THIS WEEK ON THE EXCHANGE★Tues 12/29 🎥 The Discourse: Real Vision Exchange Portfolio Year In Review with @Moritz Heiden ★Coming New Year’s Weekend 🎞 The Hive Dive Issue #1: First Edition of the Exchange Newsletter from @Weston Nakamura ☃️❄️HAPPY HOLIDAYS FROM THE EXCHANGE!🌲🌴 -
Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 12: ResultsDespite the holidays a lot of people took the time to answer the Exchange sentiment survey. Thanks for that! Some interesting developments have been going on last week: Executive Summary * EM Equities fell out of favor. Not surprising given the negative news around Alibaba, which dipped around 13% between last Wednesday and this Monday and highlights some risk factors in EM investing that might have been off the radar in the past months. * Equities outlook in general is quite bearish on the 3…
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Exchange Exclusive Live REPLAY: Nick Halaris, Metros Capital Update on Real EstateReplay of Metros Capital Founder & President @Nicholas Halaris LIVE on The Discourse Tues Dec 22. A comprehensive discussion on the state of the US real estate sector, trends in the great housing migration (city → suburbs, millennials, the wealthy etc), sub sector views on multi, office, hotels, home builders, contrarian bets and more. https://vimeo.com/495178725Remember to ask @Nicholas Halaris any questions and leave your feedback! See Nick’s Sept Real Vision appearance here Attache…
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From RV Archives - Conversation with Anthony DedenA few months ago Anthony Pompliano posted a thread on Twitter talking about Anthony Deden: https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1297666709944512514Anthony Deden does not usually give any interviews as he very much values his private life. But Real Vision has in its archives a two part series conversation between him and Grant Williams. This is an absolute gem that I'm sure many of you will enjoy. GRANT WILLIAMS IN CONVERSATION WITH ANTHONY DEDEN: PART I GRANT WILLIAMS IN CONVERSATION WITH A… -
Add "Watch Later" links in Distillery email...next to each summary. It'd be handy save stuff to watch with one click.
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Happy Holidays, everyone!Congratulations to everyone on making it through this year. Let's have a great 2021!
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More than TeslaTesla has been a topic. However, there should be more on EVs, ESG, green tech, smart grid, lithium-ion batteries etc. These are hot topics that will expand over the next ten years and lead to investment opportunities. What is Real Vision planning?
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Queen’s Speech: Raoul Reflects on RV in 2020RVDB, The Festivals (Crypto, Learning, Aftermath), the Search function, Real Vision Crypto, the membership tiers, the referrals. Oh, and The Exchange. 2020 has been a hell of a year. Watch how much Real Vision evolved in 2020, and what’s next. CLICK HERE TO WATCH RAOUL GIVE HIS ANNUAL “QUEEN’S SPEECH”
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Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 12)Joyous holidays and a happy New Year to all of you from Real Vision Bot and myself. The last survey for this year is already live, I forgot to post it here, but already saw that a lot of you participated anyway. Thank you all for the great support in 2020, without you this survey would not work. It has been your sentiment that has driven the Exchange Hive mind portfolio to an amazing +22% ytd. Yes, Bitcoin was an important part, but so were the other asset classes that led to the portfolio …
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awesome interview - Roy Niederhoffer: ONE MILLION TRADES, ZERO REGRETSThis is really really good, one of the best interviews I've seen. Fascinating look into behavioral/psychological emotion based herd behavior mixed with systematic trading, which has inherent "human" elements in it. Neuroscientist turned behavioral psychology based systematic trader + talks about 9/11 and the culture of integrity (actual) within the futures trading community reminded me of @Seahyung Park & @Jaymes Rosenthal + a few more I can't remember offhand. Obviously @Moritz H…
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EXCHANGE UPDATEAt the end of the day today we will be consolidating a few of our exchanges to make discussing, searching, and posting about your favorite topics more intuitive and improve your Exchange experience. Bonds, Forex, Commodities, and Precious Metals will now all be under one exchange “Global Assets.” But don’t worry all your posts from the old exchanges will be moved to the new exchange, so you won’t lose any of your old content!
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Best wishes and 2021 predictions!Hey RV Community, Just thought I would post my musings for the coming year. Please feel free to post your own. Maybe RV can give a prize to the winner next December for closest prediction lol QE in the US continues resulting in an extending cycle. More all-time highs. Lead by FAANG and Oil Hard Brexit and European vol. leading to CBDC Life returns to semi normal. BTC falls in Jan and Feb. hits 35 to 40 k ESG will still not break out that will be 2022 lol ok thats all I got 😀🥃cheers!
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Asking a very beginner's question here, so apologies if this is self-evident, but I've been divin...Asking a very beginner's question here, so apologies if this is self-evident, but I've been diving into the world of bonds a bit more. The first chart shows the correlation between the 30-year and the price of gold. The second chart shows the rising wedge pattern emerging on the 30-year while the RSI is declining pretty significantly over the same period of time. If I'm interpreting this correctly, is this indicating that the upward move in the 30 year is losing strength and could signal a brea…
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LIVE at 1PM EST: Weston & Nick Halaris of Metros Capital"This psychological shift has the potential to impact not only the economy and the market but also our political landscape. It’s really important where and how far this new demand for housing goes. The potential is there for a dramatic reordering our society." -Nick Halaris, Metros Capital Join us LIVE for an update on the state of the Real Estate sector, and submit your questions below! (Slide deck attached)
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Heading into 2021, what guests would you like to see on Real Vision?Heading into 2021, what guests would you like to see on Real Vision?
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Goodreads on RV: Session 3 - Brent JohnsonHi everyone, With year end holidays coming for many of us, this could be a great opportunity to let go of the daily price movements and pick up a great book. Continuing with the book recommendations from some of the best contributors on Real Vision, today our guest is Mr. Brent Johnson aka Santiago Capital on Twitter. As always, this is by no means an exhaustive list. It has been compiled based on direct input from Brent and some of his public appearances. Without further ado and in no particu…
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Goodreads on RV: Session 1 - Raoul Pal (Updated)Hi there everyone, Since my first post back when the Exchange was just released, it has greatly evolved, getting more users and allowing much better post editing tools (kudos to the team!). With the year end holidays coming up for many of us it is a great time to pick up a new book, so I just wanted to resurface this post and clean it up visually. As a reminder this list is based on Mr @Raoul Pal public appearances and by no means exhaustive: * Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the Wor…
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The Fourth TurningI've been trying to read THE FOURTH TURNING because so many people, @Raoul Pal included, bring it up because of it's relevancy in the current world. Honestly, I've had a tough time reading it, it gets really slow and dense to me at times. I even downloaded the audio book hoping I could power thru it while driving/excercising but I keep zoning out. Anyway, I found today that Grant Williams did a three-part series last year with Neil Howe (one of the authors) and it is wonderful as is most of Gra… -
OPED A different look at the situation Xmas 2020I know quite a few micro, small & medium size business owners. 2020 has definitively been hard to many of the smaller guys. However, they all have a common denominator; they look at the real cash in their hands at the end of the day because that's what pay the bills,their employees and suppliers. Basically, their survival has beem based on sound and, many times, common sense business practices. On the other side, capital superabundance (see post here below) is somehow trapped in a world o…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 11: ResultsLast week, nothing could go wrong in the @Real Vision Exchange portfolio. Bitcoin rallied, Gold recovered and even the S&P kept climbing despite some setbacks most likely related to the inclusion of Tesla in the Index (people bought Tesla while shorting parts of the S&P in anticipation of forced buying/selling). The Exchange portfolio was well positioned for these events. A large allocation to Bitcoin, EM Equities, Gold and some S&P Equities. Also direct Dollar exposure has been red…
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https://www.largoresources.com/home/default.aspxlong term: . Possibly one of the best mining asset (Vanadium) with a vertical ESG flavor due to the "clean energy " https://www.largocleanenergy.com/ long-duration grid-scale vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFB) low cost producer. strong balancesheet but...a bit pricey The mine is in Brazil, Bahia State.
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REAL VISION VIDEOS OF THE WEEKYou made it through the LAST FULL WEEK of 2020! Now catch up on videos you may have missed this week, picked by the RV Team (click below) THE DISCOURSE ON THE EXCHANGE EQUITIES BONDS FOREX COMMODITIES PRECIOUS METALS REAL ESTATE CRYPTO MACRO CHAT
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NEW FEATURE: Trade IdeaPost your trade ideas! These are trade IDEAS. Not Trades. Not Trade recommendations. DO NOT focus on the performance of the trade - that’s NOT what this is. There is no input for price, nor live market tracking, for this very purpose. The point of trade ideas is to transform conversation into action (theoretical), theory into markets. Inflation vs deflation vs disinflation vs reflation ← enough. WHAT IS THE TRADE? Trade ideas serve as a starting point of discussion. Again, your PnL / Performa…
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The Discourse: Seahyung Park“When Genius Fails Trades” Episode 3: ★ Special Episode ★ @Seahyung Park and Weston unveil the Exchange‘s new TRADE IDEA FEATURE (live now), as they discuss how to trade the BOJ debt monetization. Enough with theories - WHAT’S the trade?? •A look into Seahyung’s brilliant mind and framework, and horrible trading record •Constructing a trade from theory: BOJ Debt Monetization → USDJPY strangle (options strategy breakdown) •Healthy Disagreements •Tips for Trade Ideas https://vimeo.com/4920…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 11)This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live and the Bot is in festive mode to forget about his portfolio's performance. The Exchange portfolio is still ahead with a 6% lead. With only a few weeks to go until the end of the year, every decision counts and could decide upon glory or defeat. Take your chances at beating the Bot and his portfolio allocation. Learn from the Hive mind allocation and bring this victory home! CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY If you haven't already checked o…
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You can find stuff!Hi everyone, I'm delighted to announce that the Search functionality on the Real Vision website has had a complete overhaul. Check it out! -
🎞 The Real Mechanics of Monetary Policy and The Plumbing of the Financial SystemDr. Manmohan Singh IMF Caitlin Long CEO and founder of Avanti Financial Group The plumbing of the financial system continuously evolves as institutions, regulations, and technology change. Coming from entirely different perspectives, Long and Singh both stress the level of attention digital assets are receiving from the highest levels of global finance and how important they will be to the future development of the financial system. → CLICK HERE TO WATCH ←
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 10: ResultsAlready the tenth survey and only 3 more to go until the end of the year. Time really flies by on the Exchange. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of last week's survey and added some new charts: Overview of the changes * Sentiment bar charts are now stacked for better visibility * The Bot improved his emotional capabilities. I already have the FEAR index that counts the number of words associated with economic distress. However, that one was always a little bit rough, since it did not …
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Happy ETF Sunday! (Watch 20 sec trailer)ETF - The Exchange's weekend programming, covering the lighter side of finance & markets. "Trailer" below ↓ https://vimeo.com/490411322 (anyone else who is a clown like me + can talk markets please get in touch) @Jack Farley @Nick Correa @Jason Ziemianski @Raoul Pal @Damian Horner @Ash Bennington
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On the exchange we talk about crypto assets a great deal, which is really good. My question is: i...On the exchange we talk about crypto assets a great deal, which is really good. My question is: if you were to create a fintech portfolio which crypto companies would you include? Thx! Your top 5 would be great 😀
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RV + EXCHANGE VIDEOS OF THE WEEKIn case you missed anything, get up to speed with a list of our favorite VIDEOS OF THE WEEK! ★ BONDS ★ EQUITIES ★ FOREX ★ COMMODITIES ★ PRECIOUS METALS ★ REAL ESTATE ★ CRYPTO ★ MACRO CHAT And of course, don’t forget this week’s THE EXCHANGE VIDEOS! ★ THE DISCOURSE ★ THE BREAKDOWN
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Follow-up to my Daily Briefing intro with Weston Nakamura (📈📉s GALORE)Hi all, On the intro to today's Real Vision Daily Briefing, @Weston Nakamura shared with me his chart-heavy analysis on the growth/value, USD/JPY, and the woes of the Central Bank of Turkey. Due to the limited time, we sped through all of the charts. But in this video below, Weston and I go in greater detail on specific trade ideas, as well as on Japanese retail traders, who Weston argues are hidden drivers of FX volatility: https://vimeo.com/[email protected] W thanks for your insightful char…
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Trying to make sense of ...As many investors interviewed on RV seem incredulous about the "disconnection" between equities and the state of real life economy, I'm trying to develop my own (newbie) answer to the question. Very interested in smarter folks opinions on my random thoughts :) I am especially looking at the tech sector, which doesn't seem that hardly hit by the so-called rotation trade. Long term demand change for tech equities At a micro perspective, many realized in March tech companies are the on…
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Shoutout to Sunsets - Response to Jack F & Jaymes R...adding my unsolicited (I don’t care) thoughts to the video posted by @Jack Farley chatting with @Jaymes Rosenthal yesterday: • As WTI crude futures traded in negative territory and the lowest strike listed for WTI crude puts was $1 Put, that strike somehow went $38 DEEP in the money... • Cheers Jaymes for your last day trading futures in Chicago - you survived! 👍 • “Shoutout to sunsets” https://vimeo.com/489390789Click here to see Jack n’ Jaymes’ full video from yesterday that I’m respo…
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ECB QE vs the ever rising EuroECB pushes their QE up by over $600 billion today to stave off deflation. Yet Euro traders called the ECB's bluff by rallying EUR/USD. I am utterly confused, not to mention taking a whacking in my short Euro futures position. Could anyone explain why the Euro would rally against the dollar on an ECB QE increase announcement?
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What crypto storage do you consider more secure? A hardware wallet in a safe place or a reputable...What crypto storage do you consider more secure? A hardware wallet in a safe place or a reputable DeFI protocol?
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Great piece on Cathie WoodJust thought of sharing this great piece on Cathie Wood and Ark Invest: https://www.coindesk.com/cathie-wood-most-influential-2020
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Negative Oil. Poker. Futures [email protected]"Jaymes Rosenthal" shares his secrets in our inaugural afterNegative Oil. Poker. Futures trading. @"Jaymes Rosenthal" shares his secrets in our inaugural afterhours conversation. I had a lot of fun chatting with Jaymes - let me know if you'd like to see us do this again!
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Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 10)This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live and the Bot still doesn't want to admit his impending defeat. The Exchange portfolio is ahead comfortably with a 6% lead. With only a few weeks to go until the end of the year, every decision counts and could decide upon glory or defeat. Take your chances at beating the Bot and his portfolio allocation. Learn from the Hive mind allocation and bring this victory home! CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY If you haven't already checked out previous…
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"Do as I say, Not as I do!"So Jaimie Dimon today said at an annual Goldman Sachs financial conference that he wouldn't touch Treasuries with a 10-ft pole. Hmmm. I guess JPM must be the sole exception amongst all the commercial banks above buying more & more treasuries week after week and month after month. LOL. "Do as I say, not as I do!" ;-) ;-)
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 9: ResultsBetter late than never. Due to a technical issue (I screwed up the Bot with a spontaneous update of his artificial intelligence) the survey results come with 2 days delay. Sorry for that, but thank you all for participating. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of last week's survey and added some charts to the Exchange Survey Dashboard,describing how sentiment and positioning have change compared to the previous week. GO TO THE DASHBOARD Interesting observations from the sentiment * Positi…
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The Discourse: Jaymes Rosenthal“Own Your Enemy...” Episode 2: Two futures traders on opposite sides of the planet explore trading markets and risk managing life going forward, as Jaymes finishes up the Chicago trading chapter of his story. * Trading 20 > VIX < 80 * Trading for work vs Investing for life * Don’t avoid your enemy, take an ownership stake * Thoughts on Hedgeye * Work/life balance Get away from work for the sake of work * Don’t be overwhelmed by finance, there is never a “finish line,” and moving goalpo…
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How many RV videos do you watch each week?How many RV videos do you watch each week? -
Best way to incorporate inflation / currency strength into a chart? If I use DXY, do I also need...Best way to incorporate inflation / currency strength into a chart? If I use DXY, do I also need CPI / PCE? Example: SPY*DXY/100=... Thanks. In our new world of central banks devaluing currencies against one another, and domestic inflation rates...I'd like to come up with an equation that allows us to compare "true" valuation across time. Thanks
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REAL VISION MERCH STORE LAUNCHED EXCLUSIVELY ON THE EXCHANGE!https://vimeo.com/488057476CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE REAL VISION SHOP
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New highs? Or, currency devaluation? SPY*DXY=...New highs? Or, currency devaluation? SPY*DXY=...
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Essential vs Plus vs ProPlease make it easier to sort content by tier and time frame. It's quite confusing right now - thanks.
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Real Vision VIDEOS OF THE WEEKBusy week? We know. Luckily, you can catch up with the best Videos Of The Week, individually hand picked as always by the RV Team below. Enjoy the weekend! ★ EQUITIES ★ BONDS ★ CRYPTO ★ FOREX ★ COMMODITIES ★ PRECIOUS METALS ★ REAL ESTATE ★ MACRO CHAT And for shows from within the hive, follow newly launched Exchange TV HERE 📺 ★ THE DISCOURSE Debut Episode with Sam Colt! ★ THE BREAKDOWN with Jack Farley & Nick Correa
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Reflation trade?I hear a lot about reflation, but something is not very clear to me. As I understand it, reflation works as follows: * Some stimulus (endo or exo) boosts demand and employment * Wages increase and as a consequence prices increase as well (costs) * Inflation kicks in * Central banks raise interest rates to calm things down * Bond prices fall * Stocks might fall (because highest rates make them less attractive) but generally rise as a reflexion of the reflationary growth (steps 1,2), and commodi…
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Hi All, I remember a couple of months ago when Raoul was discussing the roll-out of the exchange,...Hi All, I remember a couple of months ago when Raoul was discussing the roll-out of the exchange, he spoke about two guys from MunichRe who built a sentiment model and who were also building one for the RV exchange. Does anyone know their names or where I can find out more about their work? Thanks in advance for any help!
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Written Daily BriefingI don't always have ~30 minutes to watch the daily briefing. Wondering if RV has considered a written one like the Distillery?
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Best Pratices for making the Most out of your RV subscription for new and old members:@Weston Nakamura and I recorded a video talking about using the exchange; https://exchange.realvision.com/post/the-discourse-debut-video-with-sam-colt-5fc8210896dcef08f5b8a6c9 In general, we talked about What my portfolio looks like & Why and Why I am so active on the Exchange. The great Value Add to RV is The Exchange so I think the most useful part of my conversation with Weston is my breakdown of how to use the exchange, starting around @14:16 in the video. For the readers out the…
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The Discourse: Debut Video with Sam ColtThe Discourse is a weekly program with Weston from the Exchange, taking the Hive Mind to the markets, and far more importantly- taking markets into the depths of the Hive Mind. The key feature of The Discourse is for Weston to speak directly with individuals from The Exchange community, to explore and tap into the vast wealth of individual knowledge, expertise, skills and talents - both financial AND non-financially related - in order to proactively extract and distribute expertise, knowledge…
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Get your Real Vision membership for free by sharing and referring what we all love - information.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSAICRterw0First winner being announced later today. Help us spread the word of Real Vision and get your account on the house. Click here to learn more
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Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 9)This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live and the Bot is already prepared for a cold and harsh winter, not only in terms of his portfolio results! Take your chances at beating the Bot and his portfolio allocation. Currently, the Bot is still lagging behind. Note that his performance suffered a little bit since I removed the AUD-USD from the survey and just deleted his historical allocation as well. It's not the clean way and definitely how I usually do it, but given that the Exchange…
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Watch the trailer for The Discourse debut later today (feat. Sam Colt)Preview for The Exchange’s weekly show The Discourse - debut episode later today featuring ExChangemaker @Sam Colt !! Sam & Weston dive into The Exchange, explore why quality engagement is key, and reveal best practices & tips for maximizing value extraction. Series Premiere from inside the hive! Watch the trailer below ↓ https://vimeo.com/486301544
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The chart here is intended to capture domestic inflation, as well as the dollar index. S&P 500 /...The chart here is intended to capture domestic inflation, as well as the dollar index. S&P 500 / CPI * DXY = .... My question is: Is there a more comprehensive means of tracking the dollar vs. other currencies globally (preferably not tedious)? As we know, the DXY is mostly USD/EURO. My goal is to try to chart the true value of the S&P 500, at least in relative terms. I haven't exactly worked out how I'll use the final product, but I feel this is a valuable perspect…
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Hey there, a lot of videos refer to the dollar shortage and how it forced the March selloff. Can ...Hey there, a lot of videos refer to the dollar shortage and how it forced the March selloff. Can anyone help me understand exactly how that unfolds step by step?
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What RV video do you recommend as a powershare to newbs? Definition of newb = someone who blindl...What RV video do you recommend as a powershare to newbs? Definition of newb = someone who blindly socks money into the "market" and doesn't bother to ask questions.
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(VIDEO) The Exchange’s Badges Explained + Why They MatterA few months ago, @Raoul Pal, behind his Cayman Islands bar, took out his phone and recorded an overly casual “can you guys record a video of yourselves discussing your personal financial journey and upload it online - thanks” And yet we happily obeyed. Dozens of videos uploaded Immediately. Truly incredible. This is what comes of years of credibility building. This is how to tap the hive mind. Thanks for all the feedback to everyone from this weekend. Hopefully clarified (Original Announcem…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 8: ResultsThank you all for participating. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of last week's survey and added some charts to the Exchange Survey Dashboard, describing how sentiment and positioning have change compared to the previous week. GO TO THE DASHBOARD Interesting observations from the sentiment * It's the first time in the history of the survey that equity sentiment (especially US and EM) is higher than Bitcoin sentiment * Bitcoin sentiment has come down a bit during last week but it's stil…
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Soon come, as they say here in Cayman..The quality of posts, analysis, discussion and questions here on The Exchange are going up every day. It's really, really cool to see how smart, thoughtful and helpful everyone is. Now all we need is for a back button that doesn't take you to the top again and a feed that is sorted by engagement and its going to explode! We are waiting our community software partners to roll out these key improvements. it's coming but I just dont know when... but soon come. Thanks everyone for toughing it ou… -
Europeans only!Catchy title, right? Lol Manuel here, from Spain. Just sharing my thoughts as a recent paid member on RV and part of the younger generation So, guys I want to say thanks to @Raoul Pal and all the team for this event. Is has been really educative. I also appreciate that this was not only US-centric, so we got some useful information about Europe, Africa, Australia and Asia. (Honestly, I was not expecting information about Africa, which was so interesting as well). Thanks to @Edward Harris… -
Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 8)This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live! Take your chances at beating the Bot and his (sometimes crazy) portfolio allocation. He will not rest on Thanksgiving and continue the number crunching. He's currently working very hard to improve the FEAR Index, but looking at the recent performance in the Exchange vs. Bot Portfolio challenge, maybe he should rather take the time off and think about his allocation strategy (at least it's going up again). CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY …
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📈 Investing in IRAK 🤠💵 with Geoffrey Batt.Id like to add some extra colour to the interview with Geoffrey Batt Link to video: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-expert-view/videos/investing-in-iraq-perception-vs-reality?source_collection=0f1c5bbe0e674d90bfb6ca11362bda31 I first heard about Geoffrey Batt on the invest like the best podcast last year in it he also talks about selecting LP's (interesting for those looking to getting in the OPM game, and how the mainstream media avoids complex subjects because "ain't nobody got ti…
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After The Aftermath: Thank You! And Onward We GoThank you to the speakers, and thank you all for attending The Aftermath! But just because The Aftermath event is over, obviously does not mean social and political volatility and market risk is gone. Thankfully we have the Exchange! Post your comments, questions, videos, charts: collectively proactive expertise contribution + proactively effective value extraction = enemy of uncertainty. Special thanks again to @Jeremiah S and @John Fadool for contributing their voices and perspectives fr…
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The Aftermath (Replay): Millennial & Gen-Z Explore GeopoliticsDay 2: John Fadool & Weston Nakamura China Under Biden Administration, and The Coming Avalanche of Central Bank Gold Sell Flows @John Fadool - Geopolitical Risk Expert jfgeopolitics.com @Weston Nakamura - Manager, The Real Vision Exchange Fresh off the heels of President-elect Biden officially unveiling his cabinet picks, John & Weston discuss US-China relations under a new/(old) administration. John explains his bearish gold thesis from EM central banks' forced selling. ht…
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Austrian vs Mmt or Individual vs SocietyI have just been pondering the debate between mmt and austerian economics from more of a philosophical angle. Is it not possible that they both can work together really well. I wish I dicovered the benefits of holding Gold 20 years ago and wished bitcoin existsed back then. As central banks distroyed my very hard earnt savings as house prices sky rocketed. My thoughts as we now have bitcoin which helps the individual hold onto the values he or she has created. Does that not mean we should be al…
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Aftermath on The Exchange: Millennial & Gen-Z Discuss Millennials & Gen-Z'sDay 2: Jeremiah Seidman & Weston Nakamura Millennials & Gen-Z, now the largest generation, are endlessly scrutinized, criticized and analyzed, but are grossly underrepresented in the conversation. @Jeremiah S (Gen-Z) & @Weston Nakamura (Millennial) have a frank discussion and offer perspectives on markets, capitalism, higher education, politics and more in the unspoken, final frontier of social divides: the inter-generational conflict. https://vimeo.com/483248185
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Hi, could someone help me with this?Hi. Raoul was talking about Eurodollar 100 strike call options. So it's a bet on the US goes to negative interest rates. He is talking about a possible 100X return. Can someone explain to me how to execute this trade? Thanks!
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Does it matter that "Governments don't understand Tech"?Does it matter that "Governments don't understand Tech"?
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The Aftermath Day 2 at 3pm: The Exchange Takes OverToday starting at 3:00pm EST, The Real Vision Exchange takes over The Aftermath. Streaming directly from The Exchange, I will be sitting down for back to back sessions with two of the Exchange's homegrown talent @John Fadool and @Jeremiah S , as we share perspectives on domestic and international politics and policy, socioeconomic issues, financial markets and more, from the most underrepresented and critical cohorts in these discussions: Millennial and Gen Z generations. Markets are forwar…
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Crypto Marketing done rightIf you haven't watched the interview with the two Marcos, the founders of Genesis mining, you should definitely check it out on RV Crypto. Just saw their ad this morning. Hilarious. https://twitter.com/moritzheiden/status/1331228576734085121
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Nial Ferguson in Conversation with Dan RatherReview of this conversation is only available until Dec 23 so here are my highlights + annotations: American's Trust in the media: At the start Nial talks about this the trust in the media poll: https://news.gallup.com/poll/321116/americans-remain-distrustful-mass-media.aspx Again there are no error bars with these polls (will they ever learn?) but I expect that FOX news watching Republicans (Tucker and Hannity being top shows) have more trust in the media than this poll suggests. ⬇ …
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Hot Button Issues on Real Vision: China, COVID, Climate ChangeMike Green has now done 3 interviews that touched on China. Two with arguably pro-China guests (Grantham and Gave) and another with a decidedly anti-China guest (Dr. Ward). In each case it felt like many more people in the audience had already made up their mind compared with say the inflation/deflation debate. The same can be said of other hot-button issues like COVID and climate change. I have a view on all of these issues and want to be able to discuss but the discourse and comments around t… -
Adam Butler: "Don't copy the big institution because they are actually constrained in what they c...Adam Butler wrapped up the session with something I also think; small investors have advantages that the big institutions don't have. USE THEM Long live Robinhood?! 😂🤷♂️ PS: Thanks Jason for asking my stops question, surprised by the answer!
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The Liquidity paper Cory talked about on the THE FUND MANAGER THINK TANK panelHere is the paper Cory wrote which really brings a lot of ideas around liquidity together. Now im sure I needed to sign up to see this paper so at least check out his podcast and leave a review: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/flirting-with-models/id1402620531 He churns out a lot of research here: https://blog.thinknewfound.com/blog/
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Okay interesting Tom Thornton likes OXY not a fan of tech.Mr Thorton is hoping for a return to More normalcy & less pandemic so right now he said he had positions in financials and energy which he thinks will do better than the market since these stocks are still in the covid ditch. looking at my personal RDSA drama I hope he is right. But if you are going to position for a "back to normal" situation it looks like the market expects Big Beer (BUD) to profit more than Big oil (look at the jump from the covid news compared to shell)…
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Back in 2012, Bain & Company published an interesting report; A World awash in money. https://www...Back in 2012, Bain & Company published an interesting report; A World awash in money. https://www.bain.com/insights/a-world-awash-in-money. Basically they were right. Real Vision (Raoul Pal in particular) provided great insights on demographics, % rates, retiree baby boomer problems etc... However don't we have too many financial assets for too few GDP? A 10 to 1 ratio seem kind of difficult to sustain ? Any thoughts? Capital trends through 2020.
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Danny Blanchflower takes live headline reaction to Janet Yellen as Treasury Sechappening now in The Aftermath: POLICY CHALLENGES DON'T CARE WHOSE SIDE YOU'RE ON with @Edward Harrison: Mid-panel, WSJ headline hits saying Janet Yellen is Biden's pick for Treasury Sec ...which panelist Danny Blanchflower of Dartmouth College, former BOE MPC member & personal friend of Janet Yellen reacts to in real time as a positive: ""...who would vote against Janet Yellen?" (re: Senate confirmation) Perfect timing, perfect panel, as Biden starts to release details…
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The Aftermath LIVE: VOLATILITY IN THE TIME OF VOLATILITYwell that was cool.. but onto markets!! LIVE NOW: VOLATILITY IN THE TIME OF VOLATILITY Cem Karsan, Founder and Senior Managing Partner of AEGEA Capital Managementand Kai Volatility Advisors Jason Buck, CIO Mutiny Fund Submit questions to the Speakers LIVE here access code 4635706
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Dan Rather is The ExchangeDan Rather has had direct and immeasurable impact on hundreds of millions of lives over decades of US/world history, by informing the public. The very fact that he is currently dissecting this very role of informing the public to us, the Real Vision community of the thousands of various media networks and audiences he can go to do so, speaks volumes. "...going forward, what's going to be required is a better educated, better informed news CONSUMER..." "...its going to be in…
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