Credit & Debt
Discussion List
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Week Ahead: 8/23-8/27 Calendar(Calendar only, Week Ahead Video coming later) US House of Reps back in session to vote on $1 trillion infrastructure bill + $3.5 trillion budget resolution Mon 8/23 Japan, Germany, France, UK PMI US existing home sales Earnings: JD.com Tues 8/24 Germany GDP US New Home Sales UST 2yr auction Earnings: Best Buy Wed 8/25 US Durable Goods Orders UST 5yr Auction Jackson Hole Day 1 Thurs 8/26 ECB Minutes US GDP UST 7yr Auction Earnings: Dollar General, Dollar Tree Jackson Hole D…
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This was a good one. Be sure to check out @"Jack Farley" 's preview that is pinned to the exchang...This was a good one. Be sure to check out @"Jack Farley" 's preview that is pinned to the exchange as well! Real Vision's Jack Farley welcomes David Meneret, Founder & CIO of Mill Hill Capital, to discuss the nuances of credit markets and strategies to manage risk when investing in collateralized securities. Meneret dives into U.S. credit markets and states that the current yield reflects a failure to recognize "unknown" unknowns. He shares his framework for investing …
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Something To Think About On Credit For Friday's Guest, David MeneretSo on Friday it looks like we will have David Meneret on Real Vision to discuss all things concerning credit derivatives: credit default swaps, high-yield bonds, distressed debt, and more. I saw @Jack Farley put up an interesting tweet this morning: (1) Jack Farley on Twitter: "just spoke with a credit investor who said that credit default swaps are priced so cheaply "...it's like the VIX at 5 or 6" credit risk is the one risk that so many have shrugged off" / Twitter Cr…
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Exchanging Lanes: Episode 2https://vimeo.com/569079459EPISODE 2 UPDATES: * Nat gas: fracking, production disruption (trade idea) * Lumber: supply chain, homebuilding & housing demand (trade idea) * Autos: used cars, dealership inventory * US employment: job posting, unique observation on labor shortage IMAGES & analysis from the road: * Boat hauling: behavior of wealthy * Aluminum ingots: industrial activity * Lumber shipments * WTF is this…??? New Discussions •Bill or no bill, US infrastructure is alive …
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Weekly Roundup + Global Markets Review: USD & FX, USTs, Equities, Options & Quarter Expiry, Gold ...https://vimeo.com/565456248Not my typical weekly roundup at all ↑ Markets Reviewed / Examined & Explained In this note- market related matters from the week: •Global Central Banks •Geopolitical Risk •”The Dollar” / the yen, FX •UST yields •Gold & crypto •June quarterly options expiry/meme calls I was going to discuss markets on RVDB Thurs but didn’t make it on. Not every day is a markets discussion day- but day after FOMC certainly was. We saw some major moves that had left…
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If you can pick the mind of 1 or 2 people from the Exchange (about anything), who would it be? Us...If you can pick the mind of 1 or 2 people from the Exchange (about anything), who would it be? Use names & “@“ tag. Also feel free to write what / why (i.e. @Moritz Heiden - want to know how quants look at markets- tickers? Charts? Lines of code? @Matt Daniell to learn how to develop a bulletproof daily process and stay disciplined to it.)
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For those of you worried about real yields and inflation.From the DB default study I have the full default report dm me if you want it.
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Weekend Roundup: Fund Management, Client Risk + Prime Brokerage Risk (oh and + market risk)Make sure to follow the topic → Weekend Roundup https://vimeo.com/541415306ETFs Mike Green Update Live w/ @Max Wiethe: Game Changer - Mike Green ETFs Meb Faber & Jason Buck: ”If you buy & hold my ETF you will lose money“ - setting client expectations Hedge Funds: Mike Vranos & @Raoul Pal : Client Redemption Risk-Dependent Portfolio Construction + DIY Prime Broking Marc Cohodes w/ Jason Buck from Feb 2021 : When your prime broker fucks you over with a straight face RV Cl…
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For those Interested in understanding the history of custody and "what is a euro bond/ dollar", I...The Quick explainer for Eurobonds is this: Eurobonds were introduced to the financial markets in the early 1960s with the launch of internationally distributed and mainly US dollar-denominated bonds. Originating as an offshore market, and not subject to the exclusive regulation of one government or group of governments, Eurosecurities initially benefited from the exploitation of inefficiencies in individual domestic markets. The introduction, in 1963, of the Interest Equalisation Tax in the…
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EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO Q1 CONFERENCE CALL + 📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGEForget earnings season, this is the only “conference call” you need to pay attention to. The Real Vision Exchange Q12021 Portfolio Review with @Weston Nakamura and @Moritz Heiden https://vimeo.com/537484193and of course, don’t forget the latest issue of Inside the Hive Mind of the Real Vision Exchange for the month (2 PDF links below)! CLICK HERE FOR THE EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO Q1 2021 REVIEW CONFERENCE CALL SLIDES 📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE REPORT DOWNLOAD REPORT PDF …
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Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, sits down with Michael Green to discus...Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, sits down with Michael Green to discuss why he views volatility as the ultimate expression of illiquidity and insolvency. Together, they explore how the Fed’s actions in 2020 swiftly stomped out both of these risks, explain how structural dynamics resulted in rapid equity price appreciation over the last year, and take a closer look at volatility and the options market and what Cole describes as a "bull market in fear". They a… -
Exchange Week Roundup: Yields & Curve Controlhttps://vimeo.com/523517057 TPX Banks Weekly Roundup Videos on Yields, Yield Curve Control • Mike Green & Harley Bassman Video: Rates Volatility and Convexity + Harley Bassman Slide Deck Link + @Craig P Post on Yield Curve • Dominic Frisby and Raoul Pal Video : Taxes = Everything • Chris Whalen and Edward Harrison Video: Update on Banks • Peter Boockvar, James Bianco, and Ed Harrison Video: YCC • RVDB Fri w/ Ash Bennington Raoul Pal Video: Painting = Canvas + Paint + Fucking …
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Recession/Depression Escape Strategy & Maybe an Answer to Wealth Inequality: Thought Experiment ...I would like to propose a thought experiment...I literally thought of this 10 minutes ago, so it's a rough draft: In order to stimulate the economy out of recessions/depressions, what if every citizen was given equal amounts of fiscal stimulus cash AND an equivalent debt payment credit at the same time (on regular intervals). It may or may not require an expiration date...not sure yet. I assume it would have to be a central bank cryptocurrency or something like that to make this work… -
Own Your EnemyIn response to @Jaymes Rosenthal ’s latest video post (and meant to do this for a while but forgot/just reminded) Everyone: * What is your enemy that you need to own? * What part of your portfolio do you hate? (“nothing” = not good, add hate allocation ASAP) ↓ clip from The Discourse episode 2 on owning your enemy https://vimeo.com/510942468See The Discourse episode 2 w/ @Jaymes Rosenthal here * Trading 20 > VIX < 80 * Trading for work vs Investing for life * Don’t avoid your en…
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📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE: Feb 2021, Issue #02Download the newest edition of Inside the Hive Mind, Feb 2021 ! https://vimeo.com/508928201In this issue: • The Exchange had discussed a long GME trade on a massive short squeeze that would rival VW in ‘08 - back in Oct’20. Exchange also had the foresight for the WSB army - also since Oct’20. •An overview of Jan, the month that put retail investors front and center •The Exchange‘s View on Meme Names •Brokerage Risk •The Hive Mind Portfolio Review (spoiler alert - were still crushing it)…
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LIQUIDITY WITHOUT SOLVENCY: INVESTING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CURRENT CREDIT MARKET ENVIRONMENT · Fe...Dan Zwirn, CEO and CIO of Arena Investors, returns to Real Vision to provide a strategic update on the world of credit. In this interview with Real Vision’s managing editor, Ed Harrison, Zwirn explains how, in a world of suppressed interested rates by monetary authorities such as the Federal Reserve, companies that are effectively underwater nevertheless manage to secure financing at attractive rates. Harrison and Zwirn discuss this phenomenon of “liquidity without solvency” in depth, comparing…
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EVERYTHING YOU WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT INFLATION@Steven Van Metre interviews Michael Ashton, founder of Enduring Investments. Ashton thinks that the Consumer Price Index is an imperfect metric but is nevertheless an optimal way to measure inflation. He argues that the extraordinary growth in money stock (induced by the Federal Reserve) will indeed augur inflation. Van Metre contends that various deflationary forces, namely the decrease in the velocity of money, will stop inflation in its tracks and could in fact bring deflation. CLICK TO WA…
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"Something of Value" by Howard MarksA great memo from Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital for those who haven't reviewed already - definitely worth a read: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
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Take < 30 seconds & do this week's RV Exchange Portfolio Surveylink to survey here and follow @Moritz Heiden directly for reminders/results and color on the results every week. Watch in case you missed it: The Discourse 2020 Finale: Moritz Heiden, Two Quants
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LYN ALDEN’S 2021 MACRO OUTLOOKLyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategies shares her 2021 thesis for the U.S. dollar, interest rates, inflation, and growth, providing a strategic update of how her expectations for these key macro variables influence her outlook on assets such as commodities, EM equities, real estate, gold, and bitcoin. CLICK HERE TO WATCH
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The Discourse 2020 Finale: Moritz Heiden, Two QuantsResults are in: +22.78%, we crushed it. We, the Exchange, outperformed the Real Vision Bot Portfolio (RV interviewed guests- yes, the very people we are here to seek financial guidance from) by 2x the percentage points (RV Bot +11.30%). Oh, and we also destroyed SPX by +16%, and that’s with a healthy SPX +6% rally, as well as sidestepping the entire US election volatility. Find out how we did it in my discussion with @Moritz Heiden of Two Quants (the other quant being @Moritz Seibert), br…
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awesome interview - Roy Niederhoffer: ONE MILLION TRADES, ZERO REGRETSThis is really really good, one of the best interviews I've seen. Fascinating look into behavioral/psychological emotion based herd behavior mixed with systematic trading, which has inherent "human" elements in it. Neuroscientist turned behavioral psychology based systematic trader + talks about 9/11 and the culture of integrity (actual) within the futures trading community reminded me of @Seahyung Park & @Jaymes Rosenthal + a few more I can't remember offhand. Obviously @Moritz H…
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REAL VISION VIDEOS OF THE WEEKYou made it through the LAST FULL WEEK of 2020! Now catch up on videos you may have missed this week, picked by the RV Team (click below) THE DISCOURSE ON THE EXCHANGE EQUITIES BONDS FOREX COMMODITIES PRECIOUS METALS REAL ESTATE CRYPTO MACRO CHAT
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NEW FEATURE: Trade IdeaPost your trade ideas! These are trade IDEAS. Not Trades. Not Trade recommendations. DO NOT focus on the performance of the trade - that’s NOT what this is. There is no input for price, nor live market tracking, for this very purpose. The point of trade ideas is to transform conversation into action (theoretical), theory into markets. Inflation vs deflation vs disinflation vs reflation ← enough. WHAT IS THE TRADE? Trade ideas serve as a starting point of discussion. Again, your PnL / Performa…
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🎞 The Real Mechanics of Monetary Policy and The Plumbing of the Financial SystemDr. Manmohan Singh IMF Caitlin Long CEO and founder of Avanti Financial Group The plumbing of the financial system continuously evolves as institutions, regulations, and technology change. Coming from entirely different perspectives, Long and Singh both stress the level of attention digital assets are receiving from the highest levels of global finance and how important they will be to the future development of the financial system. → CLICK HERE TO WATCH ←
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RV + EXCHANGE VIDEOS OF THE WEEKIn case you missed anything, get up to speed with a list of our favorite VIDEOS OF THE WEEK! ★ BONDS ★ EQUITIES ★ FOREX ★ COMMODITIES ★ PRECIOUS METALS ★ REAL ESTATE ★ CRYPTO ★ MACRO CHAT And of course, don’t forget this week’s THE EXCHANGE VIDEOS! ★ THE DISCOURSE ★ THE BREAKDOWN
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The Discourse: Debut Video with Sam ColtThe Discourse is a weekly program with Weston from the Exchange, taking the Hive Mind to the markets, and far more importantly- taking markets into the depths of the Hive Mind. The key feature of The Discourse is for Weston to speak directly with individuals from The Exchange community, to explore and tap into the vast wealth of individual knowledge, expertise, skills and talents - both financial AND non-financially related - in order to proactively extract and distribute expertise, knowledge…