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Markets meandering and Tom Thornton joins Maggie Lake for today's Daily Briefing! Click here for the latest market update AND drop your questions for when the duo go live at 4PM EST!

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Exchanging Lanes

Discussion List

  • Weston Nakamura
    July CPI - Used Cars Deceleration keeps a lid on core CPI (Exchanging Lanes)
    (heading into CPI release) "We have 0.6 for the headline, 0.47% for core," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs. "It's on the high side relative to the consensus and mainly because we're probably going to get another sizeable increase in used cars even though auction prices are now falling." …thanks GS, @Brad S & I disagree. results ↓   US BLS: Consumer Price Index Summary 8:30 a.m. (ET) August 11, 2021 "The index for all items less food and energy …
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 7 comments Most recent by cary_w Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    July CPI downside miss trade: 30y UST + gold + Softbank
    30y UST Futures (ZB): delta neutral w/ upside convexity bias (long end yields fall) 4:1 ratio calls to futures: •Long Sept 165 Calls (25 ∆) •Short ZBU1 Sept 30y futures  time horizon: close at 8:31am - end of week Long Gold calls on futures (GC): 1775 / 1800 call spread time horizon: close at 8:31am - end of week Long Softbank (my “long tech“ expression - as explained to @Jeremiah S Softbank, via japan listed 9984 Softbank + US listed SFTBY (for ”round the clock” trading). this is my “n…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes Episode 5: Will CPI MISS to the Downside?
    https://vimeo.com/585338623In this Episode: •One Last Look at the Used & New Car Market Ahead of US July CPI, tomorrow (Wed 8/11) •Used Cars and Trucks have contributed to ⅓ of the index in the previous 2 months, where CPI came in at/above 5%. •Consensus Estimates undershot headline CPI for the past 4 consecutive months. This time, consensus is at an aggressive 5.3%, matching last month’s actual figure. Used Car prices are expected to remain ↑ •Yet, @Brad S and I see a potentially very …
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 11 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes Episode 4: End of the Used Car Madness (& ⅓ of CPI)?
    https://vimeo.com/580575712In this episode: •Brad Breakfast Index PRICE ALERT- No Trade *  •Used Cars: Insanity continues / worsens, BUT... •New Car Supply Floods In → End of Used Car Price FOMO → End of >5% CPI? •LTL Hits the Supply Chain & Getting Worse (as warned!) * This was recorded before @Jack Farley  ’s RV Live interview with commods expert Shawn Hackett on Brazil’s major coffee frost →  WHAT THE MILLENNIUM’S FIRST MAJOR COFFEE FROST MEANS FOR AG COMMODITIES Question for al…
    Weston Nakamura 3 views 11 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes: Episode 3
    https://vimeo.com/575952786In this episode: •Brand new used cars •The Brad Breakfast Index •The Other “Chip” Shortage •Pics from the Road - pipes, glass, Tesla juice Please us know what you’re seeing out there too - related to any of the above or not! And as always - thank you for your feedback and participation! (By the way, while @Brad S is wearing his “Irresponsibly Long” tshirt, I’m wearing my Japanese version I had made - “Irresponsible Buy & Hold” to be exact)   Previous Episod…
    Weston Nakamura 6 views 25 comments Most recent by Brad S Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes: Episode 2
    https://vimeo.com/569079459EPISODE 2  UPDATES: * Nat gas: fracking, production disruption (trade idea) * Lumber: supply chain, homebuilding & housing demand (trade idea) * Autos: used cars, dealership inventory * US employment: job posting, unique observation on labor shortage IMAGES & analysis from the road: * Boat hauling: behavior of wealthy * Aluminum ingots: industrial activity * Lumber shipments  * WTF is this…??? New Discussions •Bill or no bill, US infrastructure is alive …
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 28 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes: Debut Episode
    https://vimeo.com/561587797 This has the potential to be the greatest experiment to test the superiority of the Exchange against everyone/thing else. I truly believe that a truck driver and a D student can self-generate a better grasp of the real economy than so called economists, market participants, academics, policy makers and anyone else - precisely because we are taking a highly unconventional (and highly rational) approach. But we need your help - so if you have anything (really- anything…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 55 comments Most recent by Aaron Brill Real Vision