Exchanging Lanes
Discussion List
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Exchanging Lanes: Just In Time to Just In Case, Last Mile to Last YardGreetings all, @brad_s and I are back with a new "face-lifted" Exchanging Lanes (as in, I had to get a facelift over the holidays, as not of all us can look like we're frozen at age 20 like Brad can). In this episode, Brad and I explore excess inventories in a search for early sources of where deflation/disinflation may come from, which isn't being discussed by the broader public: Massive warehousing capacity coming online Shelves empty, stock room full, macro data useless Also, if yo…
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July CPI - Used Cars Deceleration keeps a lid on core CPI (Exchanging Lanes)(heading into CPI release) "We have 0.6 for the headline, 0.47% for core," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs. "It's on the high side relative to the consensus and mainly because we're probably going to get another sizeable increase in used cars even though auction prices are now falling." …thanks GS, @Brad S & I disagree. results ↓ US BLS: Consumer Price Index Summary 8:30 a.m. (ET) August 11, 2021 "The index for all items less food and energy …
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July CPI downside miss trade: 30y UST + gold + Softbank30y UST Futures (ZB): delta neutral w/ upside convexity bias (long end yields fall) 4:1 ratio calls to futures: •Long Sept 165 Calls (25 ∆) •Short ZBU1 Sept 30y futures time horizon: close at 8:31am - end of week Long Gold calls on futures (GC): 1775 / 1800 call spread time horizon: close at 8:31am - end of week Long Softbank (my “long tech“ expression - as explained to @Jeremiah S Softbank, via japan listed 9984 Softbank + US listed SFTBY (for ”round the clock” trading). this is my “n…
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Exchanging Lanes Episode 5: Will CPI MISS to the Downside?https://vimeo.com/585338623In this Episode: •One Last Look at the Used & New Car Market Ahead of US July CPI, tomorrow (Wed 8/11) •Used Cars and Trucks have contributed to ⅓ of the index in the previous 2 months, where CPI came in at/above 5%. •Consensus Estimates undershot headline CPI for the past 4 consecutive months. This time, consensus is at an aggressive 5.3%, matching last month’s actual figure. Used Car prices are expected to remain ↑ •Yet, @Brad S and I see a potentially very …
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Exchanging Lanes Episode 4: End of the Used Car Madness (& ⅓ of CPI)?https://vimeo.com/580575712In this episode: •Brad Breakfast Index PRICE ALERT- No Trade * •Used Cars: Insanity continues / worsens, BUT... •New Car Supply Floods In → End of Used Car Price FOMO → End of >5% CPI? •LTL Hits the Supply Chain & Getting Worse (as warned!) * This was recorded before @Jack Farley ’s RV Live interview with commods expert Shawn Hackett on Brazil’s major coffee frost → WHAT THE MILLENNIUM’S FIRST MAJOR COFFEE FROST MEANS FOR AG COMMODITIES Question for al…
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Exchanging Lanes: Episode 3https://vimeo.com/575952786In this episode: •Brand new used cars •The Brad Breakfast Index •The Other “Chip” Shortage •Pics from the Road - pipes, glass, Tesla juice Please us know what you’re seeing out there too - related to any of the above or not! And as always - thank you for your feedback and participation! (By the way, while @Brad S is wearing his “Irresponsibly Long” tshirt, I’m wearing my Japanese version I had made - “Irresponsible Buy & Hold” to be exact) Previous Episod…
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Exchanging Lanes: Episode 2https://vimeo.com/569079459EPISODE 2 UPDATES: * Nat gas: fracking, production disruption (trade idea) * Lumber: supply chain, homebuilding & housing demand (trade idea) * Autos: used cars, dealership inventory * US employment: job posting, unique observation on labor shortage IMAGES & analysis from the road: * Boat hauling: behavior of wealthy * Aluminum ingots: industrial activity * Lumber shipments * WTF is this…??? New Discussions •Bill or no bill, US infrastructure is alive …
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Exchanging Lanes: Debut Episodehttps://vimeo.com/561587797 This has the potential to be the greatest experiment to test the superiority of the Exchange against everyone/thing else. I truly believe that a truck driver and a D student can self-generate a better grasp of the real economy than so called economists, market participants, academics, policy makers and anyone else - precisely because we are taking a highly unconventional (and highly rational) approach. But we need your help - so if you have anything (really- anything…Weston Nakamura 1 view 55 comments 54 points Most recent by Aaron Brill | Options Insight Real Vision