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Discussion List

  • Ralph Humphrey
    I was wondering if different age groups had significantly different inflation expectations, and i...
    I was specifically wondering if those who lived through 1970s inflation would be more likely to it today. The blue line shows that those over 60 are braced for much higher inflation.  Maybe if you lived through 70s-style inflation, your memory reflex of those years colors your view today. That's not to say the view is wrong. 
    Ralph Humphrey 3 views 1 comment Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • sam_c
    60 years of homebuilding in my favourite developing country.
    Here is a well-written short review of home building in murica.    07-08 was really dramatic for new builds content: * Homebuilding in 2020 * Homebuilding a history * Drivers of Home Building   interesting; "More homes were permitted in Austin last year than in Los Angeles and Chicago combined."  
    sam_c 1 view 0 comments Started by sam_c Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes Episode 4: End of the Used Car Madness (& ⅓ of CPI)?
    https://vimeo.com/580575712In this episode: •Brad Breakfast Index PRICE ALERT- No Trade *  •Used Cars: Insanity continues / worsens, BUT... •New Car Supply Floods In → End of Used Car Price FOMO → End of >5% CPI? •LTL Hits the Supply Chain & Getting Worse (as warned!) * This was recorded before @Jack Farley  ’s RV Live interview with commods expert Shawn Hackett on Brazil’s major coffee frost →  WHAT THE MILLENNIUM’S FIRST MAJOR COFFEE FROST MEANS FOR AG COMMODITIES Question for al…
    Weston Nakamura 3 views 11 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • sam_c
    For those of you into inflation
    Unilever inflation expectations
    sam_c 1 view 2 comments Most recent by wissam_a Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes: Debut Episode
    https://vimeo.com/561587797 This has the potential to be the greatest experiment to test the superiority of the Exchange against everyone/thing else. I truly believe that a truck driver and a D student can self-generate a better grasp of the real economy than so called economists, market participants, academics, policy makers and anyone else - precisely because we are taking a highly unconventional (and highly rational) approach. But we need your help - so if you have anything (really- anything…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 55 comments Most recent by Aaron Brill Real Vision
  • ant_h
    I just read a really useful paper on index (inflation) linked bonds (linkers).
    It's only 12 pages and easy to understand. It covers a variety of concepts including duration, how linkers behave in different economic environment, volatility, and liquidity. Anyway here's the link in case you want to read it. An Introduction to Inflation-Linked Bonds by Werner Krämer, Managing Director, Economic Analysis at Lazard Asset Management. Published 2017.  https://www.lazardassetmanagement.com/docs/sp0/6034/AnIntroductionToInflation-LinkedBonds_LazardResearch.pdf  Also, if you kno…
    ant_h 2 views 5 comments Most recent by ant_h Real Vision
  • sam_c
    For those of you worried about real yields and inflation.
    From the DB default study  I have the full default report dm me if you want it. 
    sam_c 1 view 0 comments Started by sam_c Real Vision
  • dani_b
    Jeffrey Gundlach can't find a new truck to buy
    "I actually bought a truck a couple of weeks ago. And the lot, the car dealer's a big car dealership, they had no new trucks. There weren't any," Gundlach recalled. Because of the chip shortage, "all he had on his entire lot were used trucks," the investor added — meaning he had to settle for a used one. According to Gundlach, the truck he purchased had 8,000 miles on it, but was only $2,000 less than the sticker price of a brand new truck. "The fella who sold it to …
    dani_b 1 view 4 comments Most recent by percy_p Real Vision
  • sam_c
    Adding Research on Copper & it's relationship with EV's and anything electrification.
    LlplHere is a report and some slides to add to the collaborative piece on copper posted by @Olivier Asset a couple of months back:  https://exchange.realvision.com/post/a-collaborative-piece-on-copper-5fe174622177ea4f6e2d0f18 Some interesting things from the attached report:      a lot more copper in an EV  and from RV guest Warren Pies     And some China Related Slides:    As noted here, Remember the political issues in Chile?    Supply / Demand:    From a report fro…
    sam_c 1 view 0 comments Started by sam_c Real Vision
  • bobby_j
    AgTech Ideas/Discussion - Post Dwight Anderson (Tiger Cub)
    Hi all, I recently had the chance  to watch @Max Wiethe 's interview with Dwight Anderson about the AgTech space, and I noticed there was not a thread discussing it yet. I wanted to start one as I don't imagine many of us are experts in such a niche space, including myself, and I'm interested in learning more - so wanted to open up the floor. Prior to watching the video, I was broadly interested in the AgTech space I thought of it as an interesting way to play inflation while having exposure …
    bobby_j 1 view 2 comments Most recent by bobby_j Real Vision
  • sam_c
    There are now security tags around meat in Brazilian supermarkets. Is this what inflation does?
      this is basically a 15 USD piece.. https://twitter.com/mateusalp/status/1371973347832176643?s=20 https://br.noticias.yahoo.com/carne-com-alarme-antifurto-viraliza-na-internet-150133567.html   Not sure if true but some person on twitter claims you can pay your meat in different chunks, basically a type of credit (called parcelar in BR).  4 days ago I noticed how the real had lost 50% of its value (vs the USD) in 3 years time. Wild stuff.      https://www.economist.com/big-mac-i…
    sam_c 1 view 3 comments Most recent by John Ahearn Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Axel Weber, former president of the Bundesbank on "will inflation make a comeback"
    "In current consumer-price calculations, rising goods prices are partly offset by falling prices for services such as air travel. But in reality, pandemic-related restrictions mean that consumption of many services has fallen sharply; significantly fewer people are flying, for example. Many people’s actual consumption baskets have thus become more expensive than the basket statistical authorities use to calculate inflation. So, true inflation rates are currently often higher than the offic…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 3 comments Most recent by Sam Mitchell Real Vision