Macroeconomics
Discussion List
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Market Update + Drop Your Questions For Daily BriefingHello Exchange! I’m going on Real Vision Daily Briefing live at 4PM EST later with Ash Bennington and Dion Rabouin! Here is a quick market update: Stocks rather lackluster performance today after a strong rally off a 20 day low yesterday. No real dispersion this afternoon as all major indices down around 60 basis points. Cryptos slightly mixed this afternoon as well with Bitcoin struggling somewhat but Ethereum in the green. We continue to see the alt-coins outperform Bitcoin. What I am reall… -
Week Ahead 9-13Weekly Economic Calendar Charts Of Note: Posts To Check Out: Hey you (yes, you, reading this)...want to come to a Real Vision party in New York? Evergrande ETF Lay of the Land : Monday 13th September 2021
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What Is Your Most Obvious Trade Now? Macro / Crypto?I'm personally still just holding Tezos on this marketing push from upper management to try and get as many enterprise partners as possible. From the markets side, I have no idea. Carbon idea I posted here seems like it is the easiest to hold but entries are tough when it is this high. Curious on your quick blurbs!
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Real Vision Daily Briefing: Tony Greer!It's Tony Tuesday! Real Vision's Ash Bennington joins Tony Greer to discuss all things happening across various markets. From Crypto to Macro, they got you covered on what they see. Drop your questions in for the duo below! -
Top Posts / Morning Brief!Big bounce in China technology stocks overnight after a dismal year. The Hang Seng Tech index rallied 424 points overnight to close back above the July lows. Seeing stocks like JD and BABA showing big gap ups this morning on their ADRs. Treasuries continue to trade in relatively tame and sideways market. Yesterday's slight PMI miss coupled with poor consumer sentiment / lackluster retail sales have kept fixed income slightly propped up on what was a large rally in the "reopening" …
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Week Ahead: 8/23-8/27 Calendar(Calendar only, Week Ahead Video coming later) US House of Reps back in session to vote on $1 trillion infrastructure bill + $3.5 trillion budget resolution Mon 8/23 Japan, Germany, France, UK PMI US existing home sales Earnings: JD.com Tues 8/24 Germany GDP US New Home Sales UST 2yr auction Earnings: Best Buy Wed 8/25 US Durable Goods Orders UST 5yr Auction Jackson Hole Day 1 Thurs 8/26 ECB Minutes US GDP UST 7yr Auction Earnings: Dollar General, Dollar Tree Jackson Hole D…
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btc worries of the momentWith the current SPY setup, there are obvious concerns/doubts about how BTC will do over the next Month or 2 as the SPY does whatever type of correction this market will allow. Basically, is BTC going to tank as the stock market works out the potential for a fed mistake vs. the hardened rails passive investing has put on the trajectory of the market? This should help... BTC/SPY compared to BTC for reference... I guess it's true. When you divide by a constant you get a constant. The … -
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Hi Real Vision team, any planned videos outlining recent chinese regulation and the impacts on Ch...Hi Real Vision team, any planned videos outlining recent chinese regulation and the impacts on Chinese big tech going forward? I see there has been little coverage on this.
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Roger Hirst: Inside the EpisodeRoger Hirst’s unpacking of Raoul‘s and Julian’s monthly session is usually great. This month’s episode was superb and as good as last month’s episode. Well worth the watch for a substantive cross-asset class recap. I don’t know if it is only available for the RV Pro tier. If it is, the RV powers that be should consider unlocking it from time to time.
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Ask Me Anything, With Jon Turek!Check out the interview between Jon Turek and Luke Kawa (Director at UBS Asset Allocation) here Jon Turek joins us for an "AMA" thread. If you don't know about Jon, he is the founder of JST Advisors and runs the Cheap Convexity blog. You can also find Jon on twitter, here. Jon has a long track record of providing unique insights into the global macro space. Over the next week or so, Jon will be answering questions on this thread. Give the thread a "follow" and ask away!
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Retail Sales Miss@Weston Nakamura talked about the idea that if you get sequential misses in both consumer sentiment and retail sales, you might see some fireworks short-term in the markets. U.S. retail sales fell in July by more than forecast, consistent with a steady shift in spending toward services and indicating consumers may be growing more price conscious as inflation picks up. via Bbg: The data suggest that consumers are beginning to curb spending on merchandise in favor of services now that many p…
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The Illusion of BlissJay Powell is a drug lord, the too big to fail banks are the lieutenants, Business and smaller banks are the hitmen, and the media are the Falcons. Everyone is hooked on fiat, few want to go to rehab, and most who do die of withdrawal(not keeping up with inflation). Some users move money around to feed their addiction. Some get really good at the dope game and insulate themselves from the inevitable. We root for Uncle Jay because sobriety(deflation) is more feared than normal inflation, despite…
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BTC + Coffee + Meditation + Macro = I'm coming for you Cathie!!! Ha!!BTC may be range bound for a while. 42-47. Go Alts. This is based on EWT and wonky tone of the markets. Risk taking in on pause in my eyes... everywhere in the traditional markets. There is also a huge amount of money on the sidelines waiting like a puppy at the pound. Again, Go Alts. This a potential stage on which new legitimate markets are borne... With Sept. 13 hopefully being the potential climax of the great American socialist experiment which started in earnest in 2008, maybe …
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European Natgas, Gazprom and the EU Carbon MarketsThere is an interesting dynamic playing out in the European natural gas market. Gazprom (read: Putin) wants a German certification body to give NS2 a thumbs up. That body has a regulatory veto over NS2, a project that has been politically blessed recently by Germany and the US. It is a very independent body in a very law-abiding country and I understand there are big legal concerns about whether NS2 adds to competition in the natgas market. It doesn’t and instead entrenches Gazprom’s share …
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Supply constraint inflation is just the beginning.It can happen without an increase in the money supply. Even as the fed has been backdoor fighting this wave with reverse repo letting air out of the bag, the inflation story will not be over until the herd alphas (business owners) finds a clear and obvious spot to put their extra money. All the inconsequential amounts of stimulus have been spent. I suspect some kind of serious inflation in assets, hard or softer. Bearish divergence in the S&P is lurking. Crypto is sitting in a great…
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July CPI - Used Cars Deceleration keeps a lid on core CPI (Exchanging Lanes)(heading into CPI release) "We have 0.6 for the headline, 0.47% for core," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs. "It's on the high side relative to the consensus and mainly because we're probably going to get another sizeable increase in used cars even though auction prices are now falling." …thanks GS, @Brad S & I disagree. results ↓ US BLS: Consumer Price Index Summary 8:30 a.m. (ET) August 11, 2021 "The index for all items less food and energy …
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Ask Me Anything, With John Floyd.We recently interviewed John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, where John explains his macro strategies for trading currencies and insights into the bond market. Floyd walks through macro indicators that he watches to inform his trades and develop his variant perception. These data points have led Floyd to become bearish on the dollar relative to the yen. He also sees slowing economic growth, tensions between Northern and Southern Europe, and rising delta variant …
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What is your most obvious trade right now?With markets starting to go side-ways, what are you seeing in terms of opportunity? Or maybe is the time to just go enjoy the summer and leave markets alone? The more I look at the screens today, the more I am leaning towards the later and just stay long crypto?
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Here is a list of Blackrock's top 10 geopolitical risks, ranked by likelihood.“Everything seems amazing in retrospect. Pearl Harbor seems amazing in retrospect. It is a failure of imagination.” - D. Rumsfeld 1. Global technology decoupling 2. Major cyberattack 3. Emerging markets political crisis 4. U.S.-China strategic competition 5. Major terror attack(s) 6. North Korean conflict 7. COVID-19 resurgence 8. Climate policy gridlock 9. European fragmentation 10. Gulf tensions
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