Macroeconomics

Discussion List

  • david_g
    The Illusion of Bliss
    Jay Powell is a drug lord, the too big to fail banks are the lieutenants, Business and smaller banks are the hitmen, and the media are the Falcons. Everyone is hooked on fiat, few want to go to rehab, and most who do die of withdrawal(not keeping up with inflation). Some users move money around to feed their addiction. Some get really good at the dope game and insulate themselves from the inevitable. We root for Uncle Jay because sobriety(deflation) is more feared than normal inflation, despite…
    david_g 23 views 0 comments Started by david_g Real Vision
  • Jason B
    BTC + Coffee + Meditation + Macro = I'm coming for you Cathie!!! Ha!!
    BTC may be range bound for a while.  42-47. Go Alts. This is based on EWT and wonky tone of the markets. Risk taking in on pause in my eyes... everywhere in the traditional markets.  There is also a huge amount of money on the sidelines waiting like a puppy at the pound.  Again, Go Alts.  This a potential stage on which new legitimate markets are borne... With Sept. 13 hopefully being the potential climax of the great American socialist experiment which started in earnest in 2008, maybe …
    Jason B 31 views 0 comments Started by Jason B Real Vision
  • Stefan Clulow
    European Natgas, Gazprom and the EU Carbon Markets
    There is an interesting dynamic playing out in the European natural gas market.  Gazprom (read: Putin) wants a German certification body to give NS2 a thumbs up.  That body has a regulatory veto over NS2, a project that has been politically blessed recently by Germany and the US.  It is a very independent body in a very law-abiding country and I understand there are big legal concerns about whether NS2 adds to competition in the natgas market.  It doesn’t and instead entrenches Gazprom’s share …
    Stefan Clulow 21 views 2 comments Most recent by sam_c Real Vision
  • Jason B
    Supply constraint inflation is just the beginning.
    It can happen without an increase in the money supply.  Even as the fed has been backdoor fighting this wave with reverse repo letting air out of the bag, the inflation story will not be over until the herd alphas (business owners) finds a clear and obvious spot to put their extra money.  All the inconsequential amounts of stimulus have been spent.  I suspect some kind of serious inflation in assets, hard or softer.    Bearish divergence in the S&P is lurking. Crypto is sitting in a great…
    Jason B 11 views 1 comment Most recent by Sam Mitchell Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    July CPI - Used Cars Deceleration keeps a lid on core CPI (Exchanging Lanes)
    (heading into CPI release) "We have 0.6 for the headline, 0.47% for core," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs. "It's on the high side relative to the consensus and mainly because we're probably going to get another sizeable increase in used cars even though auction prices are now falling." …thanks GS, @Brad S & I disagree. results ↓   US BLS: Consumer Price Index Summary 8:30 a.m. (ET) August 11, 2021 "The index for all items less food and energy …
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 7 comments Most recent by cary_w Real Vision
  • stephen_m
    Is there any regulatory cap on how many times a Treasury Bill can be synthesised in the market? I...
    Is there any regulatory cap on how many times a Treasury Bill can be synthesised in the market? Is there a limit on the collateral multiplier, noting the title is retained by the creator?
    Question stephen_m 1 view 0 comments Started by stephen_m Real Vision
  • stephen_m
    With RRP levels continuing to increase and hitting above $1TN and the DXY looking at a potential ...
    With RRP levels continuing to increase and hitting above $1TN and the DXY looking at a potential break out, are we looking at a "risk off" period and flight to USD? If yes or eventually when yes, how long can institutional investors stay in cash given negative interest rates and high RRP levels at 5bps along with a lack of pristine collateral from a shortage of T-Bills? Is a short term correction and strong bounce a guarantee?
    Question stephen_m 1 view 0 comments Started by stephen_m Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Live NOW: Jack Farley w/ Julian Brigden on Twitter
    https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1MYxNmgwwLLJw
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • sb967
    Are there any professional traders on here ? I've got a little 5 person whatsapp group going of "...
    Are there any professional traders on here ? I've got a little 5 person whatsapp group going of "pros only" for more complex nuanced discussions. If you think this suits and you fancy joining - hit me up.
    Answered sb967 1 view 1 comment Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • Stefan Clulow
    A Sudbury Saturday Night
    I was glad to see the workers at the old Inco mines in Sudbury - the mining camp in Northern Ontario now owned by Vale, come to a deal with the bosses in Brazil.   When I grew up in Sudbury in the ‘70s and 80s, mining was a big deal - whole communities of Italians, Irish, Croats, Serbs, Hungarians, Finns, Franco-Ontarians,  Ukranians and Poles (mixed Polish and Ukranian friends were affectionately called Pukes back then) made good lives out of that ore.  They all had halls, clubs and other ass…
    Stefan Clulow 11 views 1 comment Most recent by John C Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    The Same Trade? See these charts
    What do cars, cryptocurrencies, asset managers, movie theaters, and meme trading have in common? They're the same trade on the 10Y UST Yield (or vice versa?) - here's the wild goose chase. First- why did $HOOD rally +24% yesterday on no news? My suspicion for the reason led me to the OCC site, where I checked the criteria for when exchanges can list options following an IPO. They are as follows (and $HOOD checks the boxes): ✓ The underlying stock must have a minimum of seven million shares o…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 10 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    RealVision Daily Briefing Q&A with Tony Greer
    With U.S. stocks trading with increased volatility, bonds trading higher, crypto falling, Tony dives into what risks are markets pricing in currently, and what opportunities does that lead to for investors?  Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Ash Bennington, senior editor at Real Vision, to discuss Greer’s impression of the action today. Do you have any questions for the duo? 
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 1 comment Most recent by pratap_v Real Vision
  • sam_c
    *for the first time since june Japanese 10y does not trade LoL @weston
    I love that little *Note: "the first time the 10y jananese bond doesn't trade since June" but said cryptically.  @Weston Nakamura I know you are almost a broken record about japan, but it remains such a wild story.   
    sam_c 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Jason B
    water levels
    To answer the inflation vs. deflation as well as sticky vs. transient debates I have this to offer... As a base we have a reasonably steady rising tide of inflation mostly in the stock market and housing as a result of post-GFC 10 year yields being suppressed for over a decade.  Add to that a tidal wave of liquidity coming down the pike that is resultant from the covid response and you get a good picture of the waters we are in...  Baseline reasonable demand pull levered up 10x as a result of …
    Jason B 1 view 0 comments Started by Jason B Real Vision
  • Jason B
    thoughts from today
    As you could replace Mike Myers and Scotland with Xi Jinping and China in a "If it's not Scottish, it's crap!!" SNL skit you can see the end game for BTC in China.  Oddly enough that makes BTC one of the few things that can unify the rest of the world against the ideological authoritarian state... With a country's economy based on collateral (It is possible and even necessary to insert the word confidence here and understand the implications.) as a result of being at the end of a deb…
    Jason B 1 view 0 comments Started by Jason B Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Daily Briefing Questions for Today
    Hey everyone, I’ll be on the Daily Briefing today with @Jack Farley to discuss July FOMC (out at 2pm EST / Chair Powell at 2:30pm EST), and China equities vs US (short CQQQ / long QQQ closed yesterday), along with Cathie Wood & Delta/Tokyo Olympics risk update.   Please post your questions below! (And as usual, anything that doesn’t get answered due to time, I’ll come back to and answer on the Exchange following!)  Thanks everyone!
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Jason B
    BTC thoughts
    1 Log chart only for this asset class.  Weekly chart is king.  4 hour is what traders are using. 2 Lower bound of trend channel from the 2017-18 run up ended up being the resistance needed to stop the recent leg up.  The uppper side of that same trend channel hits 310k in late September... wide range of possibilities here.  3 the ~460% rise from the potential first leg when applied to this leg takes up to the upper bound of the current channel potentially at near 330k around late November fuc…
    Jason B 1 view 0 comments Started by Jason B Real Vision
  • sb967