Macroeconomics
Discussion List
-
Global Macro + Crypto Technicals 3Time to dive deep into some of the charts that are in play in the global macro space. KWEB (China Internet ETF) is down a serious amount over the last few days. We are now threatening to break a trend line that is going back almost 6 years. Today's volume also happened to be the highest in the ETF's history. Small caps are trading like it is 2003. This was an analog that I discovered a couple of days ago. I think this might be more of interest for @Raoul Pal given how tight the market ha…
-
Week Ahead! Market Events & Earnings + ChartsMarkets Week Ahead Mon 7/26 * Earnings: Lockheed & TSLA Tues 7/27 * Australia Inflation * Earnings: AAPL GOOG MSFT AMD V GE Wed 7/28 * Turkey CBRT Policy Minutes * FOMC JULY * *Robinhood IPO * Earnings: FB PYPL PFE BA Thurs 7/29 * US GDP * UST 7y auction * Earnings: AMZN Fri 7/30 * EU GDP * EU CPI * EU Unemployment * US Employment Cost Index MoM * Fed Brainard Speech (first post FOMC) * China PMI * Earnings: BRK XOM CVX CAT PG Markets via @Weston Nakamura NKY / TPX ratio…
-
Good Morning Exchange! Top Posts To Get Your Day Started!* Hong Kong & China Equities are getting hammered! @Weston Nakamura takes a deeper dive into what is happening * Lay Of The Land from an ETF Perspective from @Christopher Moir. Check out the post to get a deeper understanding about market sector/factor performance. * @Michael Arellanes II shares a Q&A from Stan Druckenmiller. * Tesla earnings are out today. Thanks @Ralph Humphrey for sharing a detailed post regarding the context of what is going on around the company. * Love this pos…
-
-
Widespread internet outages are being reported including at several financial services firms, Ama...INTERNET DOWN - LIVE UPDATES: MAJOR OUTAGE HITS AMAZON, UPS, PLAYSTATION AND DOZENS MORE Andrew Griffin https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/internet-down-update-outage-amazon-b1888831.html Much of the internet has stopped working amid a widespread outage across different apps and websites. Airlines including Delta, online stores such as Amazon, games including Call of Duty, streaming services such as HBO Max and a range of banks were unavailable, according to tracking …
-
Good Morning Exchange - Top Posts To Get Your Day Started!Lets Get It Started! * Weekly Unemployment Claims report 419k from 398k. @Claudio Delgado posts some charts and color from the unemployment claims report. We had an increase of 51k week over week. Something to think about. * Nice chart from @Sam Colt showing how inflation expectations have crept into our everyday lives. The freight/packaging charts are something. Thanks Sam. * It would not be a morning post without a "Lay Of The Land" post from @Christopher Moir. Thank you for your…
-
For those of you into inflationUnilever inflation expectations
-
Top Posts To Get Your Day Started!Happy Wednesday Exchange! Here are some posts to get your day started. * @Christopher Moir updates his ETF Dashboard with a new and catchy name! * This post from @Ralph Humphrey didn't get much traction yet, but it is an important talking point. A lot of savvy investors follow the money flow of institutional buyers. Ralph breaks down what LC from Omega has been getting into. * Here is a take from @Victor Martin-Tiscar which goes against the grain of MMT. Interesting read. * Woah.... Jack,…
-
Good Morning Exchange!Good Morning From EST US. US Futures are stabilizing a bit after a couple of bad back to back days with small caps taking it on the chin. Treasuries however have continued to rally with the 10 year trading below the 1.15 level. US 10 Year Yield - Bloomberg Traders have been eying this range for a while as this happens to be the 50% retracement from the reflation trade peak. Something to keep an eye on as yields have driven a lot of the risk flow over the last couple of weeks. Top Posts …
-
Happy Monday! Morning Brief and Top Posts To Check Out!S&P 500 Futures Trading Low Stocks trading sharply lower this morning as the spread of the Covid-19 variant dubbed "Delta" has put a shadow over the economic recovery. Yields have also traded lower with the 10 year at 1.22% Here are some posts to get your Monday started. * @Florian Strauf shares the dynamics around the economics of tokens, or tokenomics. Some great flow charts and resources even for the laymen of crypto. * Another must-read X-24 series post from @Matt Danie…
-
Exchanging Lanes: Episode 3https://vimeo.com/575952786In this episode: •Brand new used cars •The Brad Breakfast Index •The Other “Chip” Shortage •Pics from the Road - pipes, glass, Tesla juice Please us know what you’re seeing out there too - related to any of the above or not! And as always - thank you for your feedback and participation! (By the way, while @Brad S is wearing his “Irresponsibly Long” tshirt, I’m wearing my Japanese version I had made - “Irresponsible Buy & Hold” to be exact) Previous Episod…
-
Who likes 'S' curvesUser growth lookS SeriouSly Strong...
-
Happy Friday!What A Week! Here Are Some Top Posts To Check Out To Get Your Day Started! Lay Of The Land This Week - Stocks, Bonds, Crude, Bitcoin * @Brad S shares some interesting tidbits regarding Uber's involvement in the trucking world. I would always be listening to Brad when things cross paths with his domain. * @Sat Phull found an article that shows how one company is looking to bridge the gap between optimal software integration with hardware. Nice find, Sat. * Wissam provides a thought provokin…
-
Potential for policy mistakesAt the current moment we are at a crossroads. Do we continue to allow the tidal wave of liquidity that was created last March continue to do its thing, or do we need some sort of tap of the breaks as a perfunctory acknowledgement of the to the inflationary forces of that wave? There is no clear choice, and it seems clear that FCP is pretty good at walking the line. As the leprechaun runs the cliff His instinct will be to push slightly higher as the implications of downward movement are too d…
-
What might the 1918 Pandemic tell us about wage inflation?Wage inflation tends to be sticky. Here is a chart that measures how much the average person's pay can buy of the S&P 500 over time. As the line rises, more of the S&P 500 can be bought, and as it declines, the opposite. You can see a sharp rise after the 1918 Pandemic. This might tell us something going forward.
-
Going Through Charts w/ Petr Episode 2Time To Plunge Into The Charts! Join me on a quick and dirty dive into the murky waters of small caps and treasury yields. Feel free to shoot me a message if you have any questions or just reply below! https://vimeo.com/575575913Charts Mentioned: Crude Oil Crude / 10 Year Yields IWM/QQQ Ratio vs 10 Year Yields KWEB BABA
-
The SP500 has been running on logarithmic linear regression lines for the past 90 years since the...All of the data mankind has outputted for the past 90 years quantified into a single, beautiful chart. -
Top Posts To Check Out This Morning!Good Morning From The US Open! Here are the top posts you should check out this morning. * Busy day ahead, says @Claudio Delgado. Certainly looks to be the case with the vast amount of economic data on the horizon today. * Lay of the land through ETF's - thank you @Christopher Moir for updating the dashboard and providing a lot of awesome color / context to the ideas. * @Matt Daniell gives us the breakdown in what's happening in the Asia-Pac markets. Also trying out a new name for the series…
-
Are these two positions on credit creation reconcilable, is one person looking at different data,...Juliette Declercq on 6-22-2021 Q: When you say that, what you mean is that it didn't really end up being new lending that went out into the economy? It wasn't credit creation? Juliette Declercq: Exactly. No credit creation because basically there is no final demand. If you basically boost base money without any hope of final demand, there is just basically no reason to invest. You're basically cutting short the cycle that you're actually trying to pump up. For me, that's really like a macro…
-
These @"Roger Hirst" videos are so good. Some of the best blend of charts and verbal context I've...These @"Roger Hirst" videos are so good. Some of the best blend of charts and verbal context I've seen. Why have emerging markets (EM) performed so poorly this year thus far? Has the reflation trade worked the way that people believed it would? For Real Vision managing editor Roger Hirst, answers to these questions strike at the most central points of discussion from July’s episode of Insider Talks. He analyzes the new levels in the DXY and its implications for global financial condi…
-
Good Morning Exchange! Top Posts To Check OutGood morning from the US Open! Top posts I'm looking at this morning: * @Christopher Moir does a great job of updating an ETF dashboard for all the exchange to see. I've personally made it a habit to try and take a peek everyday and got some awesome insights from it especially in some of the esoteric emerging market ETF's that might be coming into play with big dollar ranges - Christopher Molr's ETF dashboard * Our very own @Weston Nakamura gives some color about the dollar denominated in …
-
EU ETS Trade: Return guest requestTomorrow is a big day for the EU carbon futures market, with the European Commision due to publish the “Fit for 55”legislation. A request to @Raoul Pal and the powers that be at RV: Could you please bring back Lawson Steele for a discussion of the EU ETS market once the legislation is out and the market has digested its implications. Many thanks.
-
Daily Briefing (un)Special Guest - The Exchange Thoughts(see replies for add’l sectioned-off comments) https://vimeo.com/570374168For anyone who missed yesterday’s RVDB Tony Greer Tuesdays, you missed joining an angry mob who saw my stupid face instead (I was one of them- I too wanted Tony) don’t worry he’ll be back soon. I was pulled in about 13 mins prior to going live at 4:47am so @Ash Bennington & I just talked about what was top of mind, which defaults to recent posts on the Exchange + my big picture themes discussed on Exchange over time.…