Macroeconomics
Discussion List
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The Exchange Week Ahead: July 12 - 16Headlines | Markets | Upcoming Macro Data Schedule | Central Banks Schedule | Earnings This Week on Real Vision: Real Vision NFT Week Kicks Off: Free One Week Crash Course from Real Vision Crypto ← (click here) Headlines (that I’m watching): •🇹🇼As if the semis shortage isn’t bad enough, Taiwan’s TSMC (world’s beating heart of semiconductor production) now under threat of potential COVID breakout. •🇯🇵BOJ to consider buying “green bonds” alongside other Asia central banks, according to BOJ…
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Big story. Is China's economy slowing? Is it good for Chinese equities? I believe so. What do...https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/09/china-cuts-reserve-requirements-to-support-economic-recovery.html China cuts reserve requirements to support economic recovery POINTS * The People’s Bank of China said on its website it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all banks by 50 basis points (bps), effective from July 15. * Banks that are subject to an RRR of 5% will be exempted from the new cut. China will cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, releasing around 1 tril…
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What is your "most obvious" trade right now?I'm looking cross market and things seem to be all over the place: * Energy weaker * FANG's strong * Bonds coming up * Cryptos holding range What is your favorite play in the medium term?
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Easiest way to get into cryptoOn a long weekend, I feel like the rhythms of my standard life kick in on Monday and I go a little crazy without something to do. For that reason, I thought I would try to help people understand crypto. Here is a list of things to do to develop a basis for understanding, a knowledge of where we are in the development of the tech, and a continuous flow of information that can help you make decisions on your journey. Warning, it's all very simple. First, buy Basic Blockchain by David Shrier…
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US10yI wrote this in a reply to a question that was asked of an earlier post. I thought it would be thought provoking, so I tweaked it and put it here for more people to see. In a country that produces nothing we are monetizing everything. Since 2000 the onus of prosperity has shifted from private sector the fed's manipulation of interest rates, the US10y (and to a lesser degree the 5 year yield) is the mechanism through which the fed has given every debtor incremental raises by way of mortgage…
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This was a good one. Be sure to check out @"Jack Farley" 's preview that is pinned to the exchang...This was a good one. Be sure to check out @"Jack Farley" 's preview that is pinned to the exchange as well! Real Vision's Jack Farley welcomes David Meneret, Founder & CIO of Mill Hill Capital, to discuss the nuances of credit markets and strategies to manage risk when investing in collateralized securities. Meneret dives into U.S. credit markets and states that the current yield reflects a failure to recognize "unknown" unknowns. He shares his framework for investing …
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So it's happening.... maybeTo follow up on a post from 4 months ago... f the 10 year is the driver of the economy/SPX, here you go. https://www.tradingview.com/x/NuMtreLU/ It's happening...ish. We will see. unconventional, yes, but shoes that fit....
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Something To Think About On Credit For Friday's Guest, David MeneretSo on Friday it looks like we will have David Meneret on Real Vision to discuss all things concerning credit derivatives: credit default swaps, high-yield bonds, distressed debt, and more. I saw @Jack Farley put up an interesting tweet this morning: (1) Jack Farley on Twitter: "just spoke with a credit investor who said that credit default swaps are priced so cheaply "...it's like the VIX at 5 or 6" credit risk is the one risk that so many have shrugged off" / Twitter Cr…
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Exchanging Lanes: Episode 2https://vimeo.com/569079459EPISODE 2 UPDATES: * Nat gas: fracking, production disruption (trade idea) * Lumber: supply chain, homebuilding & housing demand (trade idea) * Autos: used cars, dealership inventory * US employment: job posting, unique observation on labor shortage IMAGES & analysis from the road: * Boat hauling: behavior of wealthy * Aluminum ingots: industrial activity * Lumber shipments * WTF is this…??? New Discussions •Bill or no bill, US infrastructure is alive …
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 26/2021: ResultsLong time no update. I'm constantly rolling out new features on the Real Vision Bot's dashboard and restructuring his back-bone to enable single interview analysis for users. I hope everyone is getting his fix of sentiment and positioning in a timely manner via realvisionbot.com. New changes on the website (please disregard some ugly design bugs that still exist): Downloadable data You can download: * Answer frequency for Crypto survey (weekly aggregate) * Answer frequency for Macro surve…
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Marko’s SlideMarko’s Slidehttps://slack-files.com/files-pri-safe/T01UU6E82RK-F0264ENKW82/real_vision_marko_v2.pdf?c=1624973051-34326b8e5d4168b2
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The consumer, the investor, the fed, everything, and wrecking ballsCan't shake it so I guess I'll put it out there. I constructing my view on the state of the economy, out prospects as a nation and how that relates to the rest of the world, I have been struck by 2 thoughts... Ha Ha The first thing that strikes me is the intangible and etherial nature of economics. For the most part we are all discussing derivatives of thoughts. We are all measuring the a functional behavior that is a result of a thought process that I have yet to find a definition for. …
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only 5 min to get things outThe character of the DJI prior to 1945 is much more like the character of BTC prior to Jan. 2020. Given that Bretton Woods changed the nature of the USD, this change in character for BTC could say a lot. In that there are obviously 2 audiences here I like to be clear about what I'm saying... BW was the starting point for the US Dollar as the global reserve currency. As a result, larger more sophisticated forces with more money and skill became interested in Wall St. Look at the DJI …
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Weekly Roundup + Global Markets Review: USD & FX, USTs, Equities, Options & Quarter Expiry, Gold ...https://vimeo.com/565456248Not my typical weekly roundup at all ↑ Markets Reviewed / Examined & Explained In this note- market related matters from the week: •Global Central Banks •Geopolitical Risk •”The Dollar” / the yen, FX •UST yields •Gold & crypto •June quarterly options expiry/meme calls I was going to discuss markets on RVDB Thurs but didn’t make it on. Not every day is a markets discussion day- but day after FOMC certainly was. We saw some major moves that had left…