Macroeconomics
Discussion List
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Daily routineHey all, I was just curious to hear about your daily routines of the different prices and indices you check. i.e. do you start your day by looking at the VIX, MOVE index, 2 - 10 spread etc.. -
If you can pick the mind of 1 or 2 people from the Exchange (about anything), who would it be? Us...If you can pick the mind of 1 or 2 people from the Exchange (about anything), who would it be? Use names & “@“ tag. Also feel free to write what / why (i.e. @Moritz Heiden - want to know how quants look at markets- tickers? Charts? Lines of code? @Matt Daniell to learn how to develop a bulletproof daily process and stay disciplined to it.)
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Recipes for manias, and crypto1: An economy near the end of.a debt super cycle with more gilded coins in the hands of people who don't know how to treat them 2: a novelty/new tech that is picking up steam with the Haves' 3:the new item has to be easily attainable have it's own vernacular to lip 5: Lack of oversight (like riding down the highway before the rising sun has appeared) Crypto in the US: 1: Economic outlook: check 2: Lambos: Check 3: Only hurdle is KYC: check; Mining, proof of stake; check 5: Defi multip…
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Can the fed directly and positively effect the employment rate?If the price of oil is the price of energy and the amount of energy needed to create something is directly related to the price of all things, then the trend in demographics is the is the on/off switch for whether or not our monetary policy works. The rate limiting factor in the speed with which a population grows is the age to sexual maturity, so we as a species are inherently slow at changing our demographics. Add on top of that the delayed age at which women are getting pregnant, and the a…
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Exchanging Lanes: Debut Episodehttps://vimeo.com/561587797 This has the potential to be the greatest experiment to test the superiority of the Exchange against everyone/thing else. I truly believe that a truck driver and a D student can self-generate a better grasp of the real economy than so called economists, market participants, academics, policy makers and anyone else - precisely because we are taking a highly unconventional (and highly rational) approach. But we need your help - so if you have anything (really- anything…Weston Nakamura 1 view 55 comments 54 points Most recent by Aaron Brill | Options Insight Real Vision
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Are cyclical versions of History like the Fourth Turning valid?Recently I listened to a couple interviews with Niall Ferguson regarding his new book, “Doom”, in which he basically said cyclical versions of history aren’t valid. He was even asked directly about Neil Howe’s, The Fourth Turning, theory. I know many people, myself include, are rather Neil Howe devotees. Since both of these men make regular appearances on Real Vision I wonder if they’d be willing to discuss this topic. I‘m big fans of both, and don’t feel qualified to critique either one‘s…
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Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 23/2021: ResultsI'm back at the desk this week and can give you some details on the latest survey results. Today is also macro portfolio rebalancing day (every Monday at close). Yesterday, the Bot already rebalanced the Crypto portfolios. I did some major updates behind the scenes, preparing the Bot for being able to scan more efficiently through the interviews. He gets a database update and I'm including a more flexible way to incorporate any huggingface transformers NLP models. Probably, this update will ta…
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Am I allowed to post a PDF about CBDC meeting on crypto? It's not a pay serviceIt's not a pay service but idk their EULA flawlessly and I couldn't learn it in time to matter. Let me know!
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Update from the Real Vision Bot.Sorry for not posting the weekly results in a timely manner lately. If you are taking those as an early indicator, it's always updated on Sunday on the Bot's website (www.realvisionbot.com). If you only look at the charts, you might only miss my description of events. I'll return to the normal schedule of discussing the results on the Exchange shortly. For the moment I'm working on new features for the Bot. One feature will be to search the interviews for any keyword and display the informatio…
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Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison sits down with Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, ...Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison sits down with Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to lay out his investment framework for markets and provide a strategic update on his macro outlook for this year. He introduces his GRID regime framework, which measures, tracks, and contextualizes the rate of change in key macro variables across time and geographies to evaluate their impact on a wide array of asset classes. Using this model, he offers his insights into the trajectory of economic g… -
Demographics and pensions chinaThere has been news in china regarding the new kid policy. You can now have 3. But seems like when they allowed 2 in 2016 it didn't really increase baby making. 2016 new 2 kid policy wasn't a huge success. Popular Economic Reasons given for lower birthrate; -woman are working and are financially independent, child bearing either postponed or less attractive. -education and housing have become really expensive. -Chinese take care of their elderly parents. And since they retire early…