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The Exchange Sentiment Survey

Discussion List

  • Moritz Heiden
    The first REAL Real Vision Bot Portfolio
    Long time no Update from the survey or Bot. Since survey participation looks good I assume you are all following the updates on the website. A few days ago I moved to the next step: creating a real world example of the Bot‘s portfolio. The easiest solution and a natural choice was the Crypto portfolio. I chose Enzyme as a platform. The Team is very helpful and it helped that Mona, the CEO has already been on RV (https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview-crypto/videos/mona-el-isa-empowerin…
    Moritz Heiden 254 views 6 comments Most recent by sergi_n Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 26/2021: Results
    Long time no update. I'm constantly rolling out new features on the Real Vision Bot's dashboard and restructuring his back-bone to enable single interview analysis for users. I hope everyone is getting his fix of sentiment and positioning in a timely manner via realvisionbot.com. New changes on the website (please disregard some ugly design bugs that still exist): Downloadable data You can download: * Answer frequency for Crypto survey (weekly aggregate) * Answer frequency for Macro surve…
    Moritz Heiden 5 views 19 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Festival of Learning: The Exchange Wrap Up Video w/ Moritz Heiden & Weston Nakamura
    The Exchange is a 24/7/365 festival of non-stop learning!  See Two Quants co-founder, Munich Re Head of Quant Research, RV Exchange builder/contributor, and Festival of Learning Day 3 "Information Curation" panelist @Moritz Heiden and I share our thoughts on tough lessons learned in 2021, including: • Moritz selling calls on GME in Jan • Moritz "fat finger" crypto execution • Weston's FOMO portfolio ....and much more.  https://vimeo.com/567688306Check out TwoQuants here
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 12 comments Most recent by SergioMontano Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 23/2021: Results
    I'm back at the desk this week and can give you some details on the latest survey results. Today is also macro portfolio rebalancing day (every Monday at close). Yesterday, the Bot already rebalanced the Crypto portfolios. I did some major updates behind the scenes, preparing the Bot for being able to scan more efficiently through the interviews. He gets a database update and I'm including a more flexible way to incorporate any huggingface transformers NLP models. Probably, this update will ta…
    Moritz Heiden 2 views 10 comments Most recent by kevin_i Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Update from the Real Vision Bot.
    Sorry for not posting the weekly results in a timely manner lately. If you are taking those as an early indicator, it's always updated on Sunday on the Bot's website (www.realvisionbot.com). If you only look at the charts, you might only miss my description of events. I'll return to the normal schedule of discussing the results on the Exchange shortly. For the moment I'm working on new features for the Bot. One feature will be to search the interviews for any keyword and display the informatio…
    Moritz Heiden 5 views 3 comments Most recent by sam_c Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 21/2021: Results
    Latest results from the Real Vision Survey. Find all the updates on www.realvisionbot.com The website now features * Crypto Survey: results from the latest crypto survey * Portfolios: crypto portfolios, weights and performance In addition, I did some fixes on weight and performance charts. Mainly there was a problem with the weekly update of the weights and the performance accidentally did not update some positions. That's fixed now. Crypto survey summary Ethereum still leading. I made the…
    Moritz Heiden 2 views 5 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 20/2021: Results
    I'm late with the review of last week's survey and this week's allocation. However, I have good reasons. I finished the first version of the new Real Vision Bot Website: www.realvisionbot.com It's still lacking the charts for the Crypto survey, but now everything is in one place. The big benefit: I manage the complete process/pipeline and the website is highly automated in the backend on AWS. More time for building features and bringing new charts instead of dealing with broken dashboards or q…
    Moritz Heiden 2 views 3 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 19/2021: Results
    Latest survey results are in!   If you haven't participated in the survey, feel free to do so: Participate here in the weekly macro survey Participate here in the weekly crypto survey Crypto survey summary Not a lot of change at the top. Ethereum still preferred to Bitcoin, Cardano made it to Top 3 again in terms of overweight votes, but it also has a large number of opponents. Looking at ranking by %overweight minus %underweight. RUNE made the biggest move last week, while UNI and BNB…
    Moritz Heiden 3 views 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 18/2021: Results
    Survey results are in! Some new changes this week: * 24/7 survey availability is now tested and all obvious bugs have been fixed * results are always aggregated on a Sunday. The Bot keeps tweeting interim results and interesting observations * the new interactive dashboard will be deployed this week. It's already running in a stealth mode for performance testing. Advantage of this dashboard: It's all programmed by myself, so I have full control and can update charts more frequently (the previo…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 18/2021
      The RV Exchange surveys are still open for this week. Cutoff date is now moved to Sunday for both surveys (crypto and macro). Take the Real Vision Macro Survey Take the Real Vision Crypto Survey     By the way, portfolio performance has recovered again. The Exchange didn't budge after the Bitcoin drawdown and kept the allocation. The Exchange crypto portfolio is also performing very well. The Bot's broader portfolio is more stable, but clearly behind in terms of performance. Mo…
    Moritz Heiden 3 views 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 17/2021: Results
      After a few days of hardcore rebuilding some parts of the Bot to enable him to digest the crypto survey results and fixing some problems with the weights, here are the results of the Exchange survey. First of all, thanks to all of you who are taking part in this and give feedback. It's invaluable to get suggestions etc. If something looks strange, a chart could be better structured or you have seen something cool somewhere else which you would like me to investigate, please let me know! We…
    Moritz Heiden 3 views 1 comment Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Surveys
    Don't forget to participate in both of the surveys this week. We already saw a very interesting development on Wednesday, when Bitcoin was shunned for Ethereum in the Crypto survey. I'm also very curious about this week's macro survey performance and the sentiment, surely it's bad because of the position in Bitcoin, but we also have a lot of commodities, EM equities, and even Gold (17.4%) in the survey which should help.   Take the Real Vision Macro Survey Take the Real Vision Crypto Survey …
    Moritz Heiden 3 views 4 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 16/2021: Results
    It's already one week since we launched the @Real Vision crypto survey and more than 650 votes in the first week. Wow.  So in addition to the weekly macro survey, I want to present the first insights. As always, I track the portfolio by looking at the weekly survey each Sunday. The portfolio will then be reallocated on Monday. For the first "allocation" of the Crypto portfolio I used Saturday evening because crypto trades 24/7 and that was the day when the majority of votes was alrea…
    Moritz Heiden 2 views 5 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO Q1 CONFERENCE CALL + 📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE
    Forget earnings season, this is the only “conference call” you need to pay attention to. The Real Vision Exchange Q12021 Portfolio Review with @Weston Nakamura and @Moritz Heiden  https://vimeo.com/537484193and of course, don’t forget the latest issue of Inside the Hive Mind of the Real Vision Exchange for the month (2 PDF links below)!  CLICK HERE FOR THE EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO Q1 2021 REVIEW CONFERENCE CALL SLIDES 📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE REPORT DOWNLOAD REPORT PDF …
    Weston Nakamura 11 views 23 comments Most recent by Greg BotNem Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    First results from the RV crypto survey
    More information about the survey see here. Looks like Dogecoin won't make it...But otherwise the Top selections looks solid. Still combing through the large list of additional coins that have been suggested, but not bad for the initial allocation.      
    Moritz Heiden 4 views 4 comments Most recent by john_c Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 15/2021: Results
      Welcome to the weekly results of the Real Vision Exchange Macro survey. You might wonder, why "Macro survey"? Well, on the weekend I launched a separate survey, the Real Vision Crypto Survey. You can find additional information here. If you like it, please participate. I already got a lot of suggestions for additional coins to include and will screen these over the next few days. The tracking portfolio will start today.  With all the surveys, the realvisionbot.com website will get…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 6 comments Most recent by sam_c Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 15/2021
    First of all: apologies for this week's delay in survey results and survey link. A lot of people already participated (the link always stays the same), so no worries, there will be results. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY I also didn't post a weekly summary, as @Weston Nakamura and I recorded a quarterly portfolio review yesterday. We'll try to do this regularly to give you insights into our takeaways and observations from the survey. Overall, it has been a fantastic quarter for the Exchange p…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 13 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 14/2021
    Don't forget to participate in this week's Real Vision Exchange survey. I started the project of adding new markets. This week, I included only Nasdaq, mainly to test the pipeline.  Thank you for all your support and Happy Easter! CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 7 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 13/2021: Results
    Last week's performance summary Initial Drawdown in both the Exchange and the Bot's portfolio due to the weakness in Bitcoin and declining VIX. Luckily both portfolios had reduced their Bitcoin allocation, which limited the severity of the dip. During the week markets were mixed (vol up, EM equities down). On Friday came the recovery, which continued over the weekend (my reporting period ends on Friday) and helped the portfolios to recover. Hence, performance-wise a flat week.  Exchange portf…
    Moritz Heiden 4 views 11 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    I would like to add some new topics to the Exchange survey and the Real Vision Bot's portfolio. W...
    I would like to add some new topics to the Exchange survey and the Real Vision Bot's portfolio. What would you (the community) prefer in terms of assets? The Bot's choice is quite clear, given that it is "the Robot of the altcoin space" (his AI really produced this quote by itself)
    Poll Moritz Heiden 2 views 5 comments Most recent by sam_c Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 12/2021: Results
    Performance-wise last week was relatively uneventful for the Exchange and the Bot portfolio. Both portfolios had roughly the same allocation of 25% Bitcoin, which was the only notable driver of performance. As of Friday, other gains were eaten up by the allocation to Volatility (approx. 7% for each portfolio), which came down over the week. So what's next for the portfolios? Important: I decided to move the performance update (total performance chart) to Wednesday. The Yahoo data for some of t…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 12/2021
    Next round! This week's edition of the @Real Vision Exchange sentiment survey is live. Btw, upon frequent request, we added Raoul + Bot "Irresponsibly long" stickers to the shop! The Exchange Hive mind portfolio is still doing very well. Slight losses on the long VIX position. Bitcoin did retract a bit, but it has already bounced back as I'm writing this. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY I'll also discovered that for performance reporting, pulling data from Yahoo Finance is not a go…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 11/2021: Results
    This week I'm on right on schedule again with the @Real Vision Exchange survey results. The Real Vision Exchange portfolio had a great week. 33.33% of the portfolion was allocated to Bitcoin, the largest value in the history of the portfolio and a winning strategy. The Bot made some good calls on Bitcoin and Equities, but being long the 10y Treasury ETF and Gold hurt. Nevertheless he finally managed to put some distance between his Portfolio and the S&P. GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 3 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 11/2021
    This week's edition of the @Real Vision Exchange sentiment survey is live. Make sure to cast your vote. The Exchange has really been killing it lately. Raoul is following this closely, so make sure to keep up the great performance. Just kidding, please tell us your view on the markets. If that happens to perform well, even better! CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1369421400956665859  If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find t…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 10/2021: Results
      The survey results are coming in a bit late lately. Sorry about that, markets a keeping me busy. Anyway, how did last week's survey turn out? GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE CHARTS 1. Market View and Sentiment Equity sentiment made quite a comeback and turned bullish. After already two days of positive performance this week, it looks like the Exchange made a good call here. Gold is more and more out of favour, Volatility is less bullish and the usual suspects (Commodities, Bitcoin) st…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 10/2021
    By the way, the Real Vision Exchange Survey 10/2021 is live! Don't forget to vote Check out this months edition of "Inside the hive mind" by @Weston Nakamura to get more insights into recent performance of the Exchange portfolio, sentiment and positioning. If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday …
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by sam_c Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 9/2021: Results
    A review on the Real Vision Exchange portfolio in February #How did the survey turn out after two weeks of Bitcoin sell off, dips in tech and some crazy trend in 10y yields (1.5%! on Friday)? Quite solid actually. True, both portfolios took a hit last week, especially the Exchange due to their large Bitcoin allocation. However, performance in February was still much better than one would have expected from pure market action. After a bet on increasing vol turned south in the first week of Feb…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 6 comments Most recent by dez_m Real Vision
  • Michael Paris
    RealTalk
    Hey all, what would you say if we had a GPT-3-like system on RV? It could be trained on freely available financial data and specifically on the high quality data of RV transcripts. I call RealTalk. (For those unfamiliar, it is a general purpose natural language tool) Additionally we could use some waveglow  type on the audio in combination with the timestamped transcripts. I already wrote a couple scripts to segment and structure the data.
    Michael Paris 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Michael Paris Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Should the Real Vision Bot also start scraping the Exchange to create insights from the posts her...
    Should the Real Vision Bot also start scraping the Exchange to create insights from the posts here and directly measure user sentiment?
    Poll Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 09/2021
    Make sure to vote in this week's @Real Vision Exchange survey and determine the direction of the Hive mind portfolio. If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Results will be made available on the weekend. I'll post results here as well as on Twitter. Once we have a decent history of sentiment, I'…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 8/2021: Results
    Inflation, no inflation, deflation - while central bankers are still arguing, the Exchange seems to hedge their bets by believing in asset price inflation combined with a healthy dose of commodity and bitcoin exposure. The more old school inflation hedge, gold, seems to be out of favor - probably that's justified given that some sources say gold offers only short term protection against rising prices. Let's have a look at this week's survey results: GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE CHARTS …
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 3 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 08/2021
    Make sure to vote in this week's @Real Vision Exchange survey and determine the direction of the Hive mind portfolio. If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Results will be made available on the weekend. I'll post results here as well as on Twitter. Once we have a decent history of sentiment, I'…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 7/2021: Results
    Results of last week's survey are in. We added commodities to the asset universe and removed the EUR because it frequently led to confusion regarding the quote currency and also some contradictory results in terms of EUR/USD vs DXY. So, first week for commodities and they already make up 12% in the RealVision Exchange portfolio. What a start!  GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE WIZARDRY Executive Summary 1. Market View and Sentiment Short term very positive for commodities and bitcoin as w…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 5 comments Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    2Q Conversations with Greg Zuckerman
    @Moritz Seibert and I decided to launch a dedicated video channel: 2Q Conversations. We have a passion for speaking with, and learning from, interesting people. Interesting because they are bright minds, smart traders, experts in their fields of business, or simply because they hold uncommon or unique views. And you know, it’s even more interesting when these views challenge our own views.  We want to have conversations only with great people, and only about great topics. Our guests tend to be…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by Moritz Seibert Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 07/2021
    Make sure to vote in this week's @Real Vision Exchange survey. The bullishness on equities and Bitcoin from last week is currently paying off nicely. Of course the Exchange is still ahead but the Bot was at least able to overtake the S&P again. I made a change to the survey. Because of the confusion with currencies I removed the EURUSD from the universe and instead added Commodities. I got a lot of requests to include them, as the asset class was clearly not represented. Of course, it…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 6/2021: Results
    Elon bought some Bitcoin. No big thing right? Except that the Exchange Hive mind portfolio is currently long 27.7% Bitcoin, based on last week's survey...this is going to be an interesting week! Otherwise, for first readers: This is the weekly summary of last week's Real Vision Exchange sentiment survey, which is open from Wednesday until Saturday each week and asks participants about their expectation of market performance over the next 1 month and 3 months. You find the weekly survey here (…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 10 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 06/2021
    Make sure to vote in this week's @Real Vision Exchange survey. Last week's de-risking in sentiment in the survey allowed the Real Vision Bot, which is based on the pure interview sentiment, to catch up a bit initially (he was more risk on - long S&P). However his large VIX allocation soon destroyed his early profits. Meanwhile the Exchange performed very well due to the spike in Bitcoin, where participants kept their exposure more or less unchanged (they moved out of equities but kept Bitco…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 7 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 5/2021: Results
    While financial markets still have to process last week's action, the Real Vision Bot has done his job evaluating last week's Exchange survey. He even found time for a special question: which of the famous wallstreetbets stocks do the Exchange members have in their portfolio? Turns out that participants either stayed rational and did not get involved at all or at least closed out their positions (or were forced out). As the survey was open from Wednesday to Saturday morning, all of these could …
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 05/2021
    You are probably either busy piling into GME or pondering the next move of the wallstreetbet crowd. Anyway, would be great if you could take a minute to participate in this week's @Real Vision Exchange survey. Since the topic of the week is overshorted underdog stocks I even included a little question on current "hot" wallstreetbets stocks. Let's see how exposed survey participants are to that selection of recently quite well performing equities. And yes, I've been both: short and th…
    Moritz Heiden 4 views 2 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 4/2021: Results
    Here are last week's @Real Vision Exchange survey results. Bitcoin sentiment came down a lot and overall it looks like the survey is catching a breath. The portfolio holds its main positions but switched off some of the tiny bets in currencies.  If you are looking to do your own analysis with the numbers on the Bot's dashboard, you can download the values in each chart as a csv by clicking the little gear box that's at the top right of each chart. GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE WIZARDRY …
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 04/2021
    This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live! Make sure to participate and tell the Bot your market outlook and position.  If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY Additional information: The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Results will be made available on the weekend. I'll post results here as well as on Twitter. Once we have …
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 3/2021: Results
        Here are last week's @Real Vision Exchange survey results. As an additional question we asked participants about the positioning in their Cryptocurrency portfolio. See below for some interesting insights. If you are looking to do your own analysis with the numbers on the Bot's dashboard, you can download the values in each chart as a csv by clicking the little gear box that's at the top right of each chart. GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE WIZARDRY Executive Summary * Gold sentimen…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 5 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 03/2021
    This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live! Make sure to participate and tell the Bot your market outlook and position. I included a special topic this week given the recent interest: Positioning on Cryptocurrencies.  CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these on the dashboard or on the Exchange. Additional information: The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Results w…
    Moritz Heiden 4 views 12 comments Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 2/2021: Results
    Here are last week's @Real Vision Exchange survey results with a little bit of a delay. As you might have noticed, markets were a little bit busy today. Another thing that came up yesterday and kept me a little bit busy was the recap of the Exchange Portfolio's performance WITHOUT Bitcoin.  So I'll start with some useful links here: * @Christopher Moir summarizes my post on the Echanges - BTC portfolio here  * @Weston Nakamura put my comment into a separate post, where I show why even without …
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by matthew_l Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE: Jan 2021, Issue #01
    Download the Inaugural Issue #1 of The Exchange's Monthly Report (Attached) https://vimeo.com/498389590TABLE OF CONTENTS * THE EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO * THE EXCHANGE WINNERS OF THE YEAR * FUN STATS * A LOOK BACK AT 2020: MY JOURNEY WITH THE EXCHANGE * THE EXCHANGE Q1 IS DONE: NOW WHAT?
    Weston Nakamura 3 views 44 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey 02/2021
    This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live! Make sure to participate and tell the Bot your market outlook and position CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY If you haven't already checked out previous week's results, you can find these HERE.  Additional information: The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Results will be made available on the weekend. I'll post results here as well as on Twitter. Once we have a decent history of sentiment, I…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 1/2021: Results
    Last week marked the start of our first survey for 2021 (at least part of the week). As each week, Real Visioin Bot asked survey participant about their market outlook for the first month and first quarter of 2021. Here are the results: Executive Summary * EM Equities are back in favor after only a brief loss in confidence the week before. The outlook for European equities is still bearish (however a bit less negative). US Equities are slightly bullish short term but near neutral for the firs…
    Moritz Heiden 4 views 2 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 13)
    The last survey for this year is live. Before you are getting ready to pop some Champagne and toast to the New Year, make sure to participate and tell the Real Vision Bot your market view for the first month and first quarter in 2021. Let's hope the only bubbles we are seeing in 2021 are the ones from the new roaring 20s' that Goldman Sachs predicted. Despite some optimism, @Moritz Seibert and I read up on the subject and discovered that the last roaring 20s' did not end that well.  By the way…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 12: Results
    Despite the holidays a lot of people took the time to answer the Exchange sentiment survey. Thanks for that! Some interesting developments have been going on last week: Executive Summary * EM Equities fell out of favor. Not surprising given the negative news around Alibaba, which dipped around 13% between last Wednesday and this Monday and highlights some risk factors in EM investing that might have been off the radar in the past months. * Equities outlook in general is quite bearish on the 3…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 4 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 12)
    Joyous holidays and a happy New Year to all of you from Real Vision Bot and myself. The last survey for this year is already live, I forgot to post it here, but already saw that a lot of you participated anyway.  Thank you all for the great support in 2020, without you this survey would not work. It has been your sentiment that has driven the Exchange Hive mind portfolio to an amazing +22% ytd.  Yes, Bitcoin was an important part, but so were the other asset classes that led to the portfolio …
    Moritz Heiden 5 views 4 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 11: Results
    Last week, nothing could go wrong in the @Real Vision Exchange portfolio. Bitcoin rallied, Gold recovered and even the S&P kept climbing despite some setbacks most likely related to the inclusion of Tesla in the Index (people bought Tesla while shorting parts of the S&P in anticipation of forced buying/selling). The Exchange portfolio was well positioned for these events. A large allocation to Bitcoin, EM Equities, Gold and some S&P Equities. Also direct Dollar exposure has been red…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 11)
    This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live and the Bot is in festive mode to forget about his portfolio's performance. The Exchange portfolio is still ahead with a 6% lead. With only a few weeks to go until the end of the year, every decision counts and could decide upon glory or defeat.  Take your chances at beating the Bot and his portfolio allocation. Learn from the Hive mind allocation and bring this victory home!   CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY If you haven't already checked o…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 3 comments Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 10: Results
      Already the tenth survey and only 3 more to go until the end of the year. Time really flies by on the Exchange. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of last week's survey and added some new charts: Overview of the changes * Sentiment bar charts are now stacked for better visibility * The Bot improved his emotional capabilities. I already have the FEAR index that counts the number of words associated with economic distress. However, that one was always a little bit rough, since it did not …
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 4 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 10)
    This week's Real Vision Exchange survey is live and the Bot still doesn't want to admit his impending defeat. The Exchange portfolio is ahead comfortably with a 6% lead. With only a few weeks to go until the end of the year, every decision counts and could decide upon glory or defeat.  Take your chances at beating the Bot and his portfolio allocation. Learn from the Hive mind allocation and bring this victory home! CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY If you haven't already checked out previous…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 9: Results
    Better late than never. Due to a technical issue (I screwed up the Bot with a spontaneous update of his artificial intelligence) the survey results come with 2 days delay. Sorry for that, but thank you all for participating. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of last week's survey and added some charts to the Exchange Survey Dashboard,describing how sentiment and positioning have change compared to the previous week. GO TO THE DASHBOARD Interesting observations from the sentiment * Positi…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Mike Coldwells
    Hi All, I remember a couple of months ago when Raoul was discussing the roll-out of the exchange,...
    Hi All, I remember a couple of months ago when Raoul was discussing the roll-out of the exchange, he spoke about two guys from MunichRe who built a sentiment model and who were also building one for the RV exchange. Does anyone know their names or where I can find out more about their work? Thanks in advance for any help!
    Answered Mike Coldwells 1 view 8 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 7: Results
    Thank you all for participating. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of last week's survey and added some charts to the Exchange Survey Dashboard describing how sentiment and positioning have change compared to the previous week. GO TO THE DASHBOARD While Bitcoin was effortlessly breaching $18k, I decided to take up on the @Sam Colt's great idea to ask about the participants Crypocurrency holdings. Special topic: Crypo Turns out, there is only one true crypto king and his name is Bitcoin.…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 14 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey (Week 7)
    I can't believe it, this is already the 7th! survey week and participation rates are still strong. Thank you all for your great support! To celebrate the launch of @Real Vision Crypto and inspired by @Sam Colt I included a special question about details of your crypto holdings!  Really curious to see the answers and potential diversification needs for my own crypto portfolio! CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY Like last time we wants to know see how you all think about the markets. We would …
    Moritz Heiden 2 views 2 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 6: Results
    Thank you all for participating. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of last week's survey and added some charts to the Exchange Survey Dashboard describing how sentiment and positioning have change compared to the previous week. GO TO THE DASHBOARD Some interesting observations OBSERVATIONS   For both, the 1m horizon, most participants saw European equities heading considerably lower. US and EM equities were better off than their European counterparts, but still the view on Equities …
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    The Exchange Sentiment Survey (Week 6)
    Will the Corona Vaccine raise the market's main sail or did you already jump on the #bitcoin life raft? Tell us what you think in our @RealVision Exchange survey, determine the direction the survey portfolio and beat the #ArtificialIntelligence. CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY Like last time we wants to know see how you all think about the markets. We would love to get an idea how you are thinking about markets for one and 3 months ahead.  CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY   If you want to ha…
    Moritz Heiden 2 views 8 comments Most recent by lexi_l Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 5: Results
    Thank you all for participating. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of this week's survey and added some charts to the Exchange Survey Dashboarddescribing how sentiment and positioning have change compared to last week. IMPORTANT NEW FEATURES: ANIMATED DAILY CHARTS. MORE BELOW GO TO THE DASHBOARD Some interesting observations and new features. OBSERVATIONS   For both horizons most participants saw equities heading considerably lower. US and EM equities were slightly better off tha…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by jaymes_r Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    The Real Vision Exchange portfolio
    Based on the weekly @Real Vision Exchange survey I track the performance vs an artificial intelligence based portfolio that uses the interview extracted by the RealVisionBot. He sold his #bitcoin on Monday and switched to Gold... Big mistake If you want to participate in this week's survey and make sure that the Exchange portfolio beats the AI, the current survey is still open! CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY   If you want to have look at the results of the previous survey, CLICK HERE. Real…
    Moritz Heiden 44 views 2 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    The Exchange Sentiment Survey (Week 5)
      Cast your vote in this week's Real Vision Exchange survey and determine the Exchange's tracking portfolio. Beat the Bot, who has his own tracker based on @Real Vision interview sentiment.  CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY Like last time we wants to know see how you all think about the markets. We would love to get an idea how you are thinking about markets for one and 3 months ahead.  CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY   If you want to have look at the results of the previous survey, CLICK H…
    Moritz Heiden 2 views 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 4: Results
    Thank you all for participating. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of this week's survey and added some charts to the Exchange Survey Dashboarddescribing how sentiment and positioning have change compared to last week. GO TO THE DASHBOARD Some interesting observations: Market outlook (short term) For both, the 1m horizon, most participants saw equities heading considerably lower. US and EM equities were slightly better off than their European counterparts. Bond yields are expected to he…
    Moritz Heiden 2 views 6 comments Most recent by sam_c Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    The Exchange Sentiment Survey (Week 4)
    While reality hits the markets, why not look ahead and fill out our weekly sentiment survey? Like last time we wants to know see how you all think about the markets. We would love to get an idea how you are thinking about markets for one and 3 months ahead.  CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY   If you want to have look at the results of the previous survey, CLICK HERE or check out the last summary. The survey will be open each week from Wednesday (around 9am EST) to Saturday (9am EST). Resu…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 3: Results
    Thank you all for participating. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of this week's survey and added some charts to the Exchange Survey Dashboard describing how sentiment and positioning have change compared to last week. GO TO THE DASHBOARD Some interesting observations:   Market outlook (short term) Most participants saw equities as well as the currencies (USD, EUR, AUD) heading slightly lower. US and EM equities were a little bit better off than their European counterparts (at least f…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 8 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    The Exchange Sentiment Survey (Week 3)
    Can everyone who indicated that he was long Bitcoin in the last survey (90% of responses) please stop watching the price chart for a second? Thank you, now that I might have your attention: The new survey is live! CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY Like last time we wants to know see how you all think about the markets. We would love to get an idea how you are thinking about markets for one and 3 months ahead.  CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY   If you want to have look at the results of the p…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Real Vision Exchange Survey (WEEK 2): Results
    Thank you all for participating. Real Vision Bot evaluated the results of this week's survey and added some charts to the dashboard describing how sentiment and positioning have change compared to last week. It was definitely worth including the question on Volatility as results are very clearly indicating that participants expect short term vol to rise.  Short term RV sentiment compared to last week We already saw negative sentiment towards Equities in the previous survey. This has now int…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 4 comments Most recent by Ernesto Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    Don't forget to vote on this week's Real Vision Exchange market survey
    CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY Thanks for your support. Results will be shared on the weekend as always! More information: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/the-exchange-sentiment-survey-week-2-5f86f7fa70a0250e39579f5d
    Moritz Heiden 2 views 0 comments Started by Moritz Heiden Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    The Exchange Sentiment Survey (Week 2)
    After last week's survey yielded some great first insights into the #bitcoin love of Real Vision Exchange users, it's time for round two. Like last time we wants to know see how you all think about the markets. We would love to get an idea how you are thinking about markets for one and 3 months ahead.  We did a little bit of finetuning, the changes include: * There is no the possibility to answer 'no opinion' to the market questions * Your view and position on volatility is included * The bo…
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 1 comment Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • Moritz Heiden
    The Exchange Sentiment Survey. Vote now!
    The Exchange Sentiment Survey   The Twoquants (@Moritz Seibert and @Moritz Heiden ) have been instructed by their AI overlord, the Real Vision Bot, to pick the brains of the Real Vision Exchange members (and the brain of @Raoul Pal) We already knows that you guys are amazing traders. Hence, we really wants to see how you all think about the markets. We would love to get an idea each week how you are thinking about markets for one and 3 months ahead.    CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY   …
    Moritz Heiden 1 view 15 comments Most recent by Moritz Heiden Real Vision