Trade Ideas

Discussion List

  • Petr Pinkhasov
    What Is Your Most Obvious Trade Now? Macro / Crypto?
    I'm personally still just holding Tezos on this marketing push from upper management to try and get as many enterprise partners as possible. From the markets side, I have no idea. Carbon idea I posted here seems like it is the easiest to hold but entries are tough when it is this high. Curious on your quick blurbs!
    Petr Pinkhasov 180 views 2 comments Most recent by seahyung_p Real Vision
  • absolut_a
    Hi Real Vision team, any planned videos outlining recent chinese regulation and the impacts on Ch...
    Hi Real Vision team, any planned videos outlining recent chinese regulation and the impacts on Chinese big tech going forward? I see there has been little coverage on this.
    Answered absolut_a 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Michael Burry joins the list of ARKK shorts. I can almost hear Cathy Wood saying, "Stand in line...
    Michael Burry of ‘Big Short’ Bets Against Cathie Wood’s ARKK Michael Burry Photographer: Astrid Stawiarz/Getty Images https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-16/-big-short-michael-burry-bets-against-flagship-cathie-wood-fund By Sam Potter August 16, 2021, 11:54 AM EDT Updated on August 16, 2021, 12:51 PM EDT Michael Burry, the investor made famous by “The Big Short” movie, has taken aim at one of Wall Street’s hottest stars. Burry’s Scion Asset Management owned bearish put cont…
    Ralph Humphrey 4 views 1 comment Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • sam_c
    Momentum question, when is it better to look at distance from ath vs distance from a moving avera...
    Momentum question, when is it better to look at distance from ath vs distance from a moving average?
    Answered sam_c 1 view 6 comments Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    July CPI - Used Cars Deceleration keeps a lid on core CPI (Exchanging Lanes)
    (heading into CPI release) "We have 0.6 for the headline, 0.47% for core," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs. "It's on the high side relative to the consensus and mainly because we're probably going to get another sizeable increase in used cars even though auction prices are now falling." …thanks GS, @Brad S & I disagree. results ↓   US BLS: Consumer Price Index Summary 8:30 a.m. (ET) August 11, 2021 "The index for all items less food and energy …
    Weston Nakamura 3 views 7 comments Most recent by cary_w Real Vision
  • Real Vision
    Ask Me Anything, With John Floyd.
    We recently interviewed John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, where John explains his macro strategies for trading currencies and insights into the bond market. Floyd walks through macro indicators that he watches to inform his trades and develop his variant perception.  These data points have led Floyd to become bearish on the dollar relative to the yen. He also sees slowing economic growth, tensions between Northern and Southern Europe, and rising delta variant …
    Real Vision 4 views 13 comments Most recent by john floyd Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    July CPI downside miss trade: 30y UST + gold + Softbank
    30y UST Futures (ZB): delta neutral w/ upside convexity bias (long end yields fall) 4:1 ratio calls to futures: •Long Sept 165 Calls (25 ∆) •Short ZBU1 Sept 30y futures  time horizon: close at 8:31am - end of week Long Gold calls on futures (GC): 1775 / 1800 call spread time horizon: close at 8:31am - end of week Long Softbank (my “long tech“ expression - as explained to @Jeremiah S Softbank, via japan listed 9984 Softbank + US listed SFTBY (for ”round the clock” trading). this is my “n…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 2 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes Episode 5: Will CPI MISS to the Downside?
    https://vimeo.com/585338623In this Episode: •One Last Look at the Used & New Car Market Ahead of US July CPI, tomorrow (Wed 8/11) •Used Cars and Trucks have contributed to ⅓ of the index in the previous 2 months, where CPI came in at/above 5%. •Consensus Estimates undershot headline CPI for the past 4 consecutive months. This time, consensus is at an aggressive 5.3%, matching last month’s actual figure. Used Car prices are expected to remain ↑ •Yet, @Brad S and I see a potentially very …
    Weston Nakamura 4 views 11 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Week Ahead: Mon Aug 9 - Fri Aug 13 w/ Petr & Weston
    https://vimeo.com/584843372FX Futures roll week ahead of expiry Mon 8/16 (AUD, EUR, JPY, GBP) Monday Aug 9 (Japan Holiday) •Fed speeches: Atlanta Fed Bostic & Richmond Fed Barkin (both taper-favoring) Earnings: AMC, Berkshire Hathaway •US JOLTS Tues Aug 10 Earnings:  🇯🇵Softbank, 🇺🇸 COIN •ARK monthly seminar - first after dropping all China exposure + adding HOOD Wed Aug 11 •US CPI •10Y UST Auction Earnings: 🇨🇳Baidu, NetEase, TAL Education (rescheduled) 🇺🇸Disney, Airbnb Thurs Aug…
    Weston Nakamura 6 views 4 comments Most recent by john_c Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Charting With Petr Episode 4
    https://vimeo.com/583861975Hope you enjoy!
    Petr Pinkhasov 1 view 3 comments Most recent by john_c Real Vision
  • simon_b
    Are there any professional traders on here ? I've got a little 5 person whatsapp group going of "...
    Are there any professional traders on here ? I've got a little 5 person whatsapp group going of "pros only" for more complex nuanced discussions. If you think this suits and you fancy joining - hit me up.
    Answered simon_b 1 view 1 comment Most recent by christopher_m Real Vision
  • Ralph Humphrey
    Here's a sampling of the 5-day performance of "obvious" trades noted by members of the exchange t...
    Note: Gold was part of a pair trade, and KWEB is serving as a proxy for Chinese tech stocks.  See the initial post on the topic for more. Chart 1   Chart 2  
    Ralph Humphrey 1 view 0 comments Started by Ralph Humphrey Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    What is your most obvious trade right now?
    With markets starting to go side-ways, what are you seeing in terms of opportunity? Or maybe is the time to just go enjoy the summer and leave markets alone? The more I look at the screens today, the more I am leaning towards the later and just stay long crypto? 
    Petr Pinkhasov 8 views 40 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • Petr Pinkhasov
    Charts With Petr Episode 3 Ft Douglas Busch of ChartSmarter
    https://vimeo.com/581310846This week I'm joined by Douglas Busch to discuss the charts! We talk about Semiconducters, the reopening trade, our favorite patterns and much more over a happy hour talk after working hours. Douglas is a life-long technician who has seen it all over the last two decades. Hoping to have him on more often! 
    Petr Pinkhasov 3 views 1 comment Most recent by john_c Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchange Week Ahead (Video + Calendar) Mon Aug 2 - Fri Aug 6
    https://vimeo.com/581862755Week Ahead: Mon Aug 2- Fri Aug 6 US Debt Ceiling reinstated yesterday (Sun), US Treasury Dept starts using extraordinary measures Final week of Tokyo Olympics (Closing Ceremony Sun, Tokyo Paralympics following) Monday August 02 (Holidays: Canada) •  China Caixin Manufacturing PMI  JUL • Japan Consumer Confidence   • Germany: Institutional Funds (Spezialfonds) law allowing for up to 20% allocation to crypto in effect Tuesday August 03  •  🏦🇦🇺 RBA Policy Decisio…
    Weston Nakamura 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Weston Nakamura Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Exchanging Lanes Episode 4: End of the Used Car Madness (& ⅓ of CPI)?
    https://vimeo.com/580575712In this episode: •Brad Breakfast Index PRICE ALERT- No Trade *  •Used Cars: Insanity continues / worsens, BUT... •New Car Supply Floods In → End of Used Car Price FOMO → End of >5% CPI? •LTL Hits the Supply Chain & Getting Worse (as warned!) * This was recorded before @Jack Farley  ’s RV Live interview with commods expert Shawn Hackett on Brazil’s major coffee frost →  WHAT THE MILLENNIUM’S FIRST MAJOR COFFEE FROST MEANS FOR AG COMMODITIES Question for al…
    Weston Nakamura 4 views 11 comments Most recent by jeremiah_s Real Vision
  • Weston Nakamura
    Daily Briefing Exchange After Hours w/ Jack & Weston (Wed Jul 28 2021)
    https://vimeo.com/580500005Thank you all for your questions from the Exchange  @Bill T @Tamim Sultan @Muddshir Hussain !  Jack and I discuss BTC, BTC & crypto scene in Japan, a taste of the next episode of Exchanging Lanes with @Brad S and disruptions in the Brad Breakfast Index - explained via @Jack Farley on RV Live w/ Shawn Hackett on coffee futures from yesterday.   Trade Idea posts (open & closing) ↓  (July 6) LONG “Capitalism” / SHORT “…with Chinese characteristics” (July 27)…
    Weston Nakamura 3 views 14 comments Most recent by Alex Newman Real Vision
  • sam_c
    Any ZYN users here?
    I was listening to @sinstockpapi on a podcast talking about sin stocks and he brought up ZYN.  I have never seen it (sadly not for sale where I am) but it seems like it is becoming popular in the US.  Anyone here using them?  @Brad S are you maybe shipping them? Also since I imagine you stop at gas stations, is it something that you can buy there? how is the shelf space?    Swedish match discussion ==> 45:00-50:00 of the podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sinstockpapi-tobacco-…
    sam_c 1 view 5 comments Most recent by Brad S Real Vision
  • simon_b
  • matthew_l
    Short Amazon - This Guy is Going naked =)
    I feel the time has come for Amazon to be in focus enough, alone after FB has been given a pass, to see some serious downfall. Charts are an easy look for a drop (I won't say correction). This is a very intuitive trade for me and took several months to decide if I would put it on. So I began building short yesterday at 3469. I don't recommend this to anyone, and it is not advice - financial or otherwise , I am not a financial advisor. The derivative route is obviously better for larger moves an…
    matthew_l 1 view 23 comments Most recent by i_n Real Vision
  • lou_b
    Technical analysis (TA) - I see it everywhere on RV - in the Exchange, by Raoul and guests, etc. ...
    Technical analysis (TA) - I see it everywhere on RV - in the Exchange, by Raoul and guests, etc. Is TA commonly used as a decision making tool by discretionary macro traders? Or, is it just used here on RV as a common denominator to express trade ideas? [FWIW, my background is systematic/quant and I'm relatively new to RV. Also, I emailed in this question to Raoul's last AMA, but was unable to attend, so I have no idea if he responded.] Thx in advance, Lou.
    Answered lou_b 1 view 3 comments Most recent by allen_a Real Vision