Videos
Discussion List
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I'm on RVDB today w/ Ash to discuss BOJ (video)For those who haven't seen, check out video below on the most consequential (and somehow also most overlooked) major central bank today: BOJ, as well as recent events that put BOJ and global markets at the precipice. BOJ Yield Curve Control - (one of) the most significant monetary policy globally in the past half decade When BOJ pins JGB yields at zero, cash rich elderly Japanese households, cash hoarding corporates, world's largest government pension fund, asset managers etc - they are forced…
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Exchanging Lanes: Just In Time to Just In Case, Last Mile to Last YardGreetings all, @brad_s and I are back with a new "face-lifted" Exchanging Lanes (as in, I had to get a facelift over the holidays, as not of all us can look like we're frozen at age 20 like Brad can). In this episode, Brad and I explore excess inventories in a search for early sources of where deflation/disinflation may come from, which isn't being discussed by the broader public: Massive warehousing capacity coming online Shelves empty, stock room full, macro data useless Also, if yo…
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Week Ahead: 8/23-8/27 Calendar(Calendar only, Week Ahead Video coming later) US House of Reps back in session to vote on $1 trillion infrastructure bill + $3.5 trillion budget resolution Mon 8/23 Japan, Germany, France, UK PMI US existing home sales Earnings: JD.com Tues 8/24 Germany GDP US New Home Sales UST 2yr auction Earnings: Best Buy Wed 8/25 US Durable Goods Orders UST 5yr Auction Jackson Hole Day 1 Thurs 8/26 ECB Minutes US GDP UST 7yr Auction Earnings: Dollar General, Dollar Tree Jackson Hole D…
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Ask Me Anything, With Jon Turek!Check out the interview between Jon Turek and Luke Kawa (Director at UBS Asset Allocation) here Jon Turek joins us for an "AMA" thread. If you don't know about Jon, he is the founder of JST Advisors and runs the Cheap Convexity blog. You can also find Jon on twitter, here. Jon has a long track record of providing unique insights into the global macro space. Over the next week or so, Jon will be answering questions on this thread. Give the thread a "follow" and ask away! -
RealVision Daily Briefing Q&A with Tony GreerWith U.S. stocks trading with increased volatility, bonds trading higher, crypto falling, Tony dives into what risks are markets pricing in currently, and what opportunities does that lead to for investors? Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Ash Bennington, senior editor at Real Vision, to discuss Greer’s impression of the action today. Do you have any questions for the duo?
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Daily Briefing Exchange After Hours w/ Jack & Weston (Wed Jul 28 2021)https://vimeo.com/580500005Thank you all for your questions from the Exchange @Bill T @Tamim Sultan @Muddshir Hussain ! Jack and I discuss BTC, BTC & crypto scene in Japan, a taste of the next episode of Exchanging Lanes with @Brad S and disruptions in the Brad Breakfast Index - explained via @Jack Farley on RV Live w/ Shawn Hackett on coffee futures from yesterday. Trade Idea posts (open & closing) ↓ (July 6) LONG “Capitalism” / SHORT “…with Chinese characteristics” (July 27)…
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Daily Briefing Questions for TodayHey everyone, I’ll be on the Daily Briefing today with @Jack Farley to discuss July FOMC (out at 2pm EST / Chair Powell at 2:30pm EST), and China equities vs US (short CQQQ / long QQQ closed yesterday), along with Cathie Wood & Delta/Tokyo Olympics risk update. Please post your questions below! (And as usual, anything that doesn’t get answered due to time, I’ll come back to and answer on the Exchange following!) Thanks everyone!
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Exchanging Lanes: Episode 3https://vimeo.com/575952786In this episode: •Brand new used cars •The Brad Breakfast Index •The Other “Chip” Shortage •Pics from the Road - pipes, glass, Tesla juice Please us know what you’re seeing out there too - related to any of the above or not! And as always - thank you for your feedback and participation! (By the way, while @Brad S is wearing his “Irresponsibly Long” tshirt, I’m wearing my Japanese version I had made - “Irresponsible Buy & Hold” to be exact) Previous Episod…
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Daily Briefing (un)Special Guest - The Exchange Thoughts(see replies for add’l sectioned-off comments) https://vimeo.com/570374168For anyone who missed yesterday’s RVDB Tony Greer Tuesdays, you missed joining an angry mob who saw my stupid face instead (I was one of them- I too wanted Tony) don’t worry he’ll be back soon. I was pulled in about 13 mins prior to going live at 4:47am so @Ash Bennington & I just talked about what was top of mind, which defaults to recent posts on the Exchange + my big picture themes discussed on Exchange over time.…
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Exchanging Lanes: Episode 2https://vimeo.com/569079459EPISODE 2 UPDATES: * Nat gas: fracking, production disruption (trade idea) * Lumber: supply chain, homebuilding & housing demand (trade idea) * Autos: used cars, dealership inventory * US employment: job posting, unique observation on labor shortage IMAGES & analysis from the road: * Boat hauling: behavior of wealthy * Aluminum ingots: industrial activity * Lumber shipments * WTF is this…??? New Discussions •Bill or no bill, US infrastructure is alive …
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Festival of Learning: The Exchange Wrap Up Video w/ Moritz Heiden & Weston NakamuraThe Exchange is a 24/7/365 festival of non-stop learning! See Two Quants co-founder, Munich Re Head of Quant Research, RV Exchange builder/contributor, and Festival of Learning Day 3 "Information Curation" panelist @Moritz Heiden and I share our thoughts on tough lessons learned in 2021, including: • Moritz selling calls on GME in Jan • Moritz "fat finger" crypto execution • Weston's FOMO portfolio ....and much more. https://vimeo.com/567688306Check out TwoQuants here
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Message to UI Team: iPad User ExperienceI don’t think I’m alone in disliking one aspect of the UI for the RV iPad app. The app is a huge improvement from the last one. At least I think it is. I can’t really tell because I don’t really use it. I used to use it almost all of the time, but now the UI sucks. @Travis Kimmel @Weston Nakamura The app should default to the horizontal viewing mode. This issue was flagged a while back amidst a series of complaints about having to view videos in vertical mode on the then new iPad app. Ex…
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Welcome Petr to Team Exchange!https://vimeo.com/[email protected] Murphy and I are very excited to introduce the community to a big addition to the Exchange team: @Petr Pinkhasov ! Please welcome (and obviously follow) Petr, great dude, sharp and market knowledgeable (just watch the video lol). Let’s make him feel at home just as you do with me and each other, - Petr joining will take the Exchange onward and upward! �
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LIVE STREAM: Fed Powell House Select Subcommittee Testimony “Lessons Learned: The Fed’s Response ...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC8raj4cmtE
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Weekly Roundup + Global Markets Review: USD & FX, USTs, Equities, Options & Quarter Expiry, Gold ...https://vimeo.com/565456248Not my typical weekly roundup at all ↑ Markets Reviewed / Examined & Explained In this note- market related matters from the week: •Global Central Banks •Geopolitical Risk •”The Dollar” / the yen, FX •UST yields •Gold & crypto •June quarterly options expiry/meme calls I was going to discuss markets on RVDB Thurs but didn’t make it on. Not every day is a markets discussion day- but day after FOMC certainly was. We saw some major moves that had left…
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If you can pick the mind of 1 or 2 people from the Exchange (about anything), who would it be? Us...If you can pick the mind of 1 or 2 people from the Exchange (about anything), who would it be? Use names & “@“ tag. Also feel free to write what / why (i.e. @Moritz Heiden - want to know how quants look at markets- tickers? Charts? Lines of code? @Matt Daniell to learn how to develop a bulletproof daily process and stay disciplined to it.)
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Exchange Exclusive: How To ESG - Dr. Indranil Ghosh w/ Ash Bennington & Weston Nakamurahttps://vimeo.com/555247663Alternative video title: “How To Prosperity” I have the privilege of participating alongside @Ash Bennington for a tri-continental discussion with Dr. Indranil Ghosh of Tiger Hill Capital and author of Powering Prosperity: A Citizen's Guide for shaping global prosperity - sharing insights exclusively for the Exchange. (MIT trained, formerly with Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund, Bridgewater Associates, McKinsey & Co). Through his unique perspective, Indranil…
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Exchanging Lanes: Debut Episodehttps://vimeo.com/561587797 This has the potential to be the greatest experiment to test the superiority of the Exchange against everyone/thing else. I truly believe that a truck driver and a D student can self-generate a better grasp of the real economy than so called economists, market participants, academics, policy makers and anyone else - precisely because we are taking a highly unconventional (and highly rational) approach. But we need your help - so if you have anything (really- anything…Weston Nakamura 1 view 55 comments 54 points Most recent by Aaron Brill | Options Insight Real Vision
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RVDB After Hours on the Exchange: Jack & Weston Walk Through and Discuss Constructing a Real Opti...We did none of the things @Jack Farley promised at the end of today‘s RVDB, and instead we just discussed an options trade that we both have a position in. https://vimeo.com/558830991As always- here’s my “this is not investment advice” disclaimer: DO NOT TRADE THIS. IF YOU TRADE THIS, YOU WILL LOSE 100% OF YOUR MONEY. THIS IS A VERY STUPID BAD IDEA AND IS NOT TO BE REPLICATED REGARDLESS OF YOUR LEVEL OF TRADING EXPERIENCE. THIS IS NOT EVEN “FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY,” THIS IS FOR MON…
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Being productive on Memorial Day - learn blockchainhttps://vimeo.com/557232337This is for everyone. Non crypto folks to blockchainbusters and everyone in between. Don't let a D student surpass you! watch → HOW BLOCKCHAINS WORK: A VISUAL WALKTHROUGH Anders Brownworth w/ @Ash Bennington
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Exchange Exclusive: NFL’s Sean Culkin (Mr. “Pay Me In BTC”)Ladies & Gents of The Exchange- see the Exchange Exclusive video below, courtesy of @Ash Bennington interviewing Sean Culkin, professional American football tight end, and first NFL player to convert 100% of his salary from USD to BTC. Watch him talk about his background, his journey of learning (with a big shout out to RV of course), and his reasoning behind how he arrived at this decision - to be (ir)responsibly compensated in this particular scarce asset over fiat. And what else lies a…
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Weekly Roundup Expo Age 2: Goldman CFO Marty Chavez (Explained & Interviewed), Jim Bianco Debut o...https://vimeo.com/554023402Marty Chavez: How a Silicon Valley / Stamford PhD in machine learning with zero trading background became CFO of Goldman & turned GS into a technology firm w/ @Raoul Pal Jim Bianco‘s RV Crypto Debut ← Voluntary & Early Career “Retraining” w/ @Ash Bennington The Exponential Age of Massive Widespread Job & Career Destruction w/ Art Bilger Expo Age Week 1 Roundup w/ @Edward Harrison
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Exchange Roundup: The Exponential Age Week 1 with Ed HarrisonWeek's Roundup with special guest @Edward Harrison making his Exchange debut! https://vimeo.com/548755341
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After Hours Special w/ Jack & Weston on Things You May Have Missed: Taiwan Market Meltdown hits N...US CPI is far from the only story - see what you may have missed with @Jack Farley https://vimeo.com/548755341Lets get the overly-covered CPI out of the way. Where'd we see the biggest jumps (ex energy)? +10% in airfares, car rentals, lodging, pro sporting event tickets - in other words, the reopen trade. Those who lost revenue clawing back to flat. Shocker. And given the "stellar" forecasting of NFP last week, its probably best we rebalance our attention portfolio away from the lou…
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Exchange Traded Fun: Spending BTC in TokyoHere is a weekend “educational“ (stupid) video on how to spend BTC in Japan (where BTC has been legal means of payment for some time now), WHY I would spend BTC vs fiat in the first place (in trivial amounts), and my general/everyday causing mischief around Tokyo. Originally recorded Sun 4/18 (few hours after BTC mini crash). https://vimeo.com/543960066Also- thank you all for the birthday wishes!
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Daily Briefing + Exchange Exclusive AFTER HOURS: BTC & MONEX w/ Jack Farley. +Monex Earnings & Pr...AFTER HOURS exclusively on the Exchange with @Jack Farley https://vimeo.com/542396482Additional Charts & material: BTC vs JAPAN Cash Equity Trading ✔️ BTCJPY ¥6mn resistance vs ❌BTCUSD $55k GBTC premium & discount vs GBTC/Monex Ratio: BOJ BTC MONEX charts from previous posts (therefore not updated but concept remains). Also, see how Monex / Japan retail ”crushed“ (barely) BTC -20% 2 weekends ago. •Intraday Charts from Mon 4/26, w/ BOJ policy release during lunch break (…
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Weekend Roundup: Fund Management, Client Risk + Prime Brokerage Risk (oh and + market risk)Make sure to follow the topic → Weekend Roundup https://vimeo.com/541415306ETFs Mike Green Update Live w/ @Max Wiethe: Game Changer - Mike Green ETFs Meb Faber & Jason Buck: ”If you buy & hold my ETF you will lose money“ - setting client expectations Hedge Funds: Mike Vranos & @Raoul Pal : Client Redemption Risk-Dependent Portfolio Construction + DIY Prime Broking Marc Cohodes w/ Jason Buck from Feb 2021 : When your prime broker fucks you over with a straight face RV Cl…
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Did anyone have issues with the web video player on RealVision? 1. Not able jump to certain time ...Did anyone have issues with the web video player on RealVision? 1. Not able jump to certain time of video. 2. Not able to use the 15s back and forward. I tried few browser and clear cache, still have the same issues. Also it work sometime, but rare it work. -
Addressing RVDB from FriRegarding the 2 questions on Turkey’s crypto “ban” - I just mentioned in the Hive Mind report of how many countless times the Exchange is ahead with identifying and discussing what’s on people’s minds, and this is exactly what I’m talking about. RVDB films at the end of the day (and this one was live so its airing even earlier) so obviously the first chance to comment has to wait until then. But if you just looked around the Exchange, you’ll have seen this discussion taking place many hours…
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EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO Q1 CONFERENCE CALL + 📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGEForget earnings season, this is the only “conference call” you need to pay attention to. The Real Vision Exchange Q12021 Portfolio Review with @Weston Nakamura and @Moritz Heiden https://vimeo.com/537484193and of course, don’t forget the latest issue of Inside the Hive Mind of the Real Vision Exchange for the month (2 PDF links below)! CLICK HERE FOR THE EXCHANGE PORTFOLIO Q1 2021 REVIEW CONFERENCE CALL SLIDES 📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE REPORT DOWNLOAD REPORT PDF …
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Weekend Roundup: Green & Moses, Author Ash, Asia Crypto, Moritz Heiden & Westonhttps://vimeo.com/535407203• Danny Moses & Mike Green: Hidden Leverage, Nonsense news & weed stocks • RVDB Fri Live @Ash Bennington @Raoul Pal • "Market Tremors" Hari Krishnan and @Ash Bennington • QCP Capital: Asia crypto markets w/ Raoul Special mentions: @Moritz Heiden @Seahyung Park @Lisa Gee @John Ahearn
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Exchange Weekend Roundup: Deflationary Printing, Unholy VIX, Arch-EGOhttps://vimeo.com/532701734Key Videos of the Week • Lacy Hunt & Danielle DiMartino Booth: Disinflationary headwinds against rising yields, 2 quarter growth head-fake, global supply chain & aging/birthrate demographic hit (Video Link Here) • Chris Cole & Mike Green: “Unholy Trinity,” VIX in 2020, Insolvency, BTC “what if,” Dragon Portfolio 2020 performance (Video Link Here) Archegos Coverage •RVDB Tues: Tony Greer de-risking (Video Link Here) •RVDB Wed PART 1 of 2: @Weston Nakam…
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Diversity of Thought: Haley Draznin on The ExchangeWelcome @Haley Draznin for her first video appearance on the Exchange, where we discuss her off-camera / behind-the-scenes role at RV (the literal reason we subscribe to RV), the $60 trillion generational wealth transfer underway, alternative investments / death of 60/40. And by far the most important topic addressed on the Exchange, the critical need for women - not just in financial markets, but on the Exchange itself. https://vimeo.com/530564023Haley’s Interviews on Alternative Investments …
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Part 2 Wrap Up: Gathering Thoughts on The Crypto Gatheringhttps://vimeo.com/529730978Following Part 1 Gathering Thoughts on The Crypto Gathering (see here) @John Ahearn @Seahyung Park @Jeremiah S @Weston Nakamura wrap up Crypto Gathering ‘21 with: •Irresponsibly Long/Short: Debate on replicating the traditional active asset management & hedge fund industry model → crypto assets •Irresponsible Outlooks: What will be on the Crypto Gathering 2022 agenda? (1 year forward looking predictions, risks and opportunities) •Revelations of being Responsi…
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Gathering Thoughts On Crypto Gatheringhttps://vimeo.com/529301483Discussion from the Exchange on RV Crypto Gathering with @John Ahearn @Seahyung Park @Jeremiah S @Weston Nakamura •Thoughts on the state of crypto •Thoughts on the event & speakers •Top picks & personal favorites (Pt. 2- Debating the future of digital asset management later) Thanks fo the fun talk gents!
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Updated View & Process + Added Risk Factor(Uploaded the wrong edit yesterday apologies, for some reason had cut out trading short term “against” my core longer term view/position - correct version now in original post & below. @Seahyung Park you can get mad at me now for the public slandering) Attached PDF “slide deck” below https://vimeo.com/528745721Also in addition which I forgot to mention - A major RISK of owning downside PUTS on US equities in general: exchanges shut down trading. This was a risk I was thinking about th…
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Can anyone please post their favourite real vision videos for newbies to help better understand t...Can anyone please post their favourite real vision videos for newbies to help better understand the markets? Thanks
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Following BOJ Policy Review today....HOW TO YCC: Lessons from BOJ (Part 2 of 2) SEE HOW TO YCC PART 1 HERE (Turn your sound on for 5 seconds of Kuroda insight ↓ )
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How to YCC: Lessons From Bank of Japan (pt. 1 of 2)Exchange Exclusive from Tokyo https://vimeo.com/525237763Part 1 of 2: •Why BOJ matters •Brief History on How BOJ Got To Manipulating the JGB Market •BOJ Governor Kuroda •How YCC works •Japan YCC ≠ US YCC 10y JGB Yield under BOJ Gov Kuroda BOJ Gov Kuroda, Fed Yellen, ECB Draghi Jackson Hole (not real quotes, maybe Kuroda’s is real) also check out Real Vision Investor Tutorials: UNDERSTANDING YIELD CURVE CONTROL
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Tomorrow -Bank of Japan, Tokyo Nearly a half decade ago in Sept 2016, BOJ announced a "policy review" ahead of the policy meeting, and then they rolled out this new strange policy called Yield Curve Control. I had to learn, advise on and trade it in real time- and once I did, I realized nobody has any clue how YCC works over the next several years to this day (they called it "stealth tapering" - very stupid). This week we have FOMC (Wed) where Powell will take questions on YCC an…
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Exchange Week Roundup: Yields & Curve Controlhttps://vimeo.com/523517057 TPX Banks Weekly Roundup Videos on Yields, Yield Curve Control • Mike Green & Harley Bassman Video: Rates Volatility and Convexity + Harley Bassman Slide Deck Link + @Craig P Post on Yield Curve • Dominic Frisby and Raoul Pal Video : Taxes = Everything • Chris Whalen and Edward Harrison Video: Update on Banks • Peter Boockvar, James Bianco, and Ed Harrison Video: YCC • RVDB Fri w/ Ash Bennington Raoul Pal Video: Painting = Canvas + Paint + Fucking …
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📰 INSIDE the HIVE MIND of the REAL VISION EXCHANGE: Vol. 3 March 2021https://vimeo.com/519754634In this issue: •Thought Bubble: The Exchange Discusses “Is Everything A Bubble?” •The Exchange + RVDB w/ @Ash Bennington @Jack Farley @Nick Correa •NEW FEATURE ROLLOUT: Influence Points (explained by @Farrell Murphy original post And see my reference example for how to effectively answer a newbie question - pay attention to the reaction more so than the answer •The Exchange Portfolio Commentary. NOTE: the real portfolio analysis from @Moritz Heiden is on hi…
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The Exchange Welcomes Ash Benningtonhttps://vimeo.com/517278239★ See my previous notes referred to: • Key Levels: VXN > 36 & UVXY > 10 • Potential Major SPX Whiplash Ahead ★ For more on gamma, see Explain Like I'm a Golden Retriever; (PIlot Episode), Chasing Gamma (link)by @Lisa Gee @Seahyung Park ★ Check out the Weekly Influence Point Winners Here @Jeremiah S @Moritz Heiden @Craig P AND... stay tuned for March Edition of Inside the Hive Mind of the Real Vision Exchange coming out next week! For those who haven…
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2Q Conversations with Greg Zuckerman@Moritz Seibert and I decided to launch a dedicated video channel: 2Q Conversations. We have a passion for speaking with, and learning from, interesting people. Interesting because they are bright minds, smart traders, experts in their fields of business, or simply because they hold uncommon or unique views. And you know, it’s even more interesting when these views challenge our own views. We want to have conversations only with great people, and only about great topics. Our guests tend to be…
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The Discourse: Seahyung Park“When Genius Fails Trades” Episode 3: ★ Special Episode ★ @Seahyung Park and Weston unveil the Exchange‘s new TRADE IDEA FEATURE (live now), as they discuss how to trade the BOJ debt monetization. Enough with theories - WHAT’S the trade?? •A look into Seahyung’s brilliant mind and framework, and horrible trading record •Constructing a trade from theory: BOJ Debt Monetization → USDJPY strangle (options strategy breakdown) •Healthy Disagreements •Tips for Trade Ideas https://vimeo.com/4920…