Credit Suisse (US ADR: CS) - the institution that has taken all the status and glory out of being able to say “I have a Swiss bank account...” will report their (lack of) earnings before EU market open tomorrow. Figures will be bad, and likely already priced in and not what I’m looking at. I’m looking to play their Archegos position unwind.
My (completely wild) guesses are as follows:
•CS’s prime brokerage has been taking their sweet time getting out of VIAC & DISCA - the lower they dump shares, the bigger the earnings & already badly damaged reputation hit. Morgan Stanley was largely out of the position by the following Mon after the famous Friday massacre, Goldman (the massacre creator) took like 3 hours to get out. CS was apparently shopping block trade offers as recent as last week. There’s a reason VIAC & DISCA stock charts are an incredibly mechanical looking 45 degree straight steady line down- CS is unloading on an algo, but no buyers = prices drifting ever lower.
•CS HAS to get out of any residual position by close today, lest they get asked question #1 conf call where they are with the unwind, and they either have to lie & commit a crime, or they have to say “were still long” and crush the market for those shares upon themselves.
TRADE 1: LONG VIAC & DISCA
IF and ONLY if VIAC and / or DISCA were stocks you wanted to own for long... (More)