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Trade Ideas
Trade Ideas

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Single stock, index, rates, FX, credit, futures & options. SERIOUS ideas only. Min. 1 week hold period - NO intraday/short term. 

REQUIRED to post a TRADE IDEA:

  • DIRECTION & SECURITY: “LONG, SHORT, PAIR, RATIO” + Security & Ticker
  • HOLDING DURATION: (“1 week,” “before Jan 14 earnings” “multi-year long term”)
  • EXPECTED RETURN: %, or target level (longs can be “unlimited”)
  • MAX RISK: % or stop loss level (shorts can be “unlimited”)
  • Brief thesis

AG Report (Not looking good)

 

 

 

 

 

US 10 Year Yield Seasonality: August Not The Time?

Seasonality Charts via Morgan Stanley
Seasonality Charts via Morgan Stanley

Came across a chart of the 10 year yield seasonality. The right chart shows the aggregative average 10 year yield move in basis points per month. The left chart shows the last 20 years or so individually. The chart clearly is saying August is not the time to be shorting bonds. Goes against a lot of what the price signals are saying of possible support here? 

What do you all make of this!?

AG & CANE (Sugar)

20210725
20210725
20210726
20210726
CANE (Sugar) No resistance
CANE (Sugar) No resistance
20210726
20210726
20210725
20210725

AMGN setting up for a breakout - looking to BUY the 250 strike, Sep Calls for 6. Target 10 - 12 and cut below 4 - beware of earnings in 9 days