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Trade Ideas
Trade Ideas

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Single stock, index, rates, FX, credit, futures & options. SERIOUS ideas only. Min. 1 week hold period - NO intraday/short term. 

REQUIRED to post a TRADE IDEA:

  • DIRECTION & SECURITY: “LONG, SHORT, PAIR, RATIO” + Security & Ticker
  • HOLDING DURATION: (“1 week,” “before Jan 14 earnings” “multi-year long term”)
  • EXPECTED RETURN: %, or target level (longs can be “unlimited”)
  • MAX RISK: % or stop loss level (shorts can be “unlimited”)
  • Brief thesis

Continued Rotation in Economic Data

Really helpful chart in @Aahan Menon most recent article. It is so easy to take an extreme view and I always use his articles to get a balanced perspective based on the data. 

https://prometheusresearch.substack.com/p/the-next-economic-regime

For those trading different equity rotations, the underlying consumer spending data is incredibly helpful for a reversion to the mean trade. 

Avalanche (AVAX)

Watched this interview on Avalanche and thought it was very interesting. Does anyone have any thoughts or feedback on the Avalanche project? 

It seems like as we move into a time where there are a lot more blockchain networks and they are competing, the differentiation becomes explicit as development on those networks scales. 

It also seems like you need some sort of technical background to truly identify the differentiation. Any thoughts on someone who is more big picture and conceptual to get an idea of these dynamics? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-SzVFyddqE

Long NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures (Short Term Event)

TL;DR, long gasoline as an event play on the Colonial pipeline closure, which supplies 45% of the east coast's gasoline. This AM (Asian time), Biden signed an emergency order authorizing transportation via road across many east coast states in response to the pipeline ransomware attack.

We do not currently have many details on the extent of the attack, but the emergency order does not yet seem to be priced to me. Note that futures (IBKR symbol RB) did spike significantly at open, but have traded down at the time of this writing. Look to work limit orders a bit below market price and be careful as pre-market is volatile. I have moderate but not high conviction so I'll watch this closely and keep stops in.

My time horizon is fairly short as this is an event play. If it moves in my favor, I'll trail stops and let it move. I don't have a particular profit target, but expect this trade to go off the book if the pipeline reopens soon and have my loss target set to where I like the asymmetry.

Additional plays I considered are transportation companies that can transport the gas and ETFs such as UGA or even PDBC (diversified commodities; if you own this already, you are already long gas), but it would take me too long to figure out the transport company plays (feel free to post ideas below) and this seemed like the most direct expression of what I think the upside could... (More)

Dfinity ICP token launch Monday!

Dfinity internet computer/ Web3.0 group’s token, ICP, launching on Coinbase Pro tomorrow.  Dfinity’s grandiose plans are well-backed and they have an impressive team.  If they accomplish half of what they intend their system will be a game-changer.  I have not been able to find much on the actual tokenomics of ICP...... any data or opinions??