Skip to main content

Welcome to The Exchange. Only paying members have access to this community. If you're a Real Vision Crypto member or just curious, you can try a 7 day trial for just $1.

Trade Ideas
Trade Ideas

Make sure you post a trade idea under the TRADE IDEA Content type.
Click Here for an Example


Single stock, index, rates, FX, credit, futures & options. SERIOUS ideas only. Min. 1 week hold period - NO intraday/short term. 

REQUIRED to post a TRADE IDEA:

  • DIRECTION & SECURITY: “LONG, SHORT, PAIR, RATIO” + Security & Ticker
  • HOLDING DURATION: (“1 week,” “before Jan 14 earnings” “multi-year long term”)
  • EXPECTED RETURN: %, or target level (longs can be “unlimited”)
  • MAX RISK: % or stop loss level (shorts can be “unlimited”)
  • Brief thesis

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

2 Credit Suisse Earnings Plays (1 long term risk, 1 outright gamble)

Credit Suisse (US ADR: CS) - the institution that has taken all the status and glory out of being able to say “I have a Swiss bank account...” will report their (lack of) earnings before EU market open tomorrow. Figures will be bad, and likely already priced in and not what I’m looking at. I’m looking to play their Archegos position unwind.

My (completely wild) guesses are as follows:

•CS’s prime brokerage has been taking their sweet time getting out of VIAC & DISCA - the lower they dump shares, the bigger the earnings & already badly damaged reputation hit. Morgan Stanley was largely out of the position by the following Mon after the famous Friday massacre, Goldman (the massacre creator) took like 3 hours to get out. CS was apparently shopping block trade offers as recent as last week. There’s a reason VIAC & DISCA stock charts are an incredibly mechanical looking 45 degree straight steady line down- CS is unloading on an algo, but no buyers = prices drifting ever lower.

•CS HAS to get out of any residual position by close today, lest they get asked question #1 conf call where they are with the unwind, and they either have to lie & commit a crime, or they have to say “were still long” and crush the market for those shares upon themselves.

Therefore:

TRADE 1: LONG VIAC & DISCA

IF and ONLY if VIAC and / or DISCA were stocks you wanted to own for long... (More)

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Following my last 2 day’s notes on BTC price drivers at moment/

see these 2 notes from y’day ss  Sunday 
BTC: How I analyze market price action at this moment (and how to NOT: ❌China ❌hash rate drop)
+
 BTC drop compared in USD & J

Monex Group’s shares are the best listed BTC proxy. The entire Japan online brokerage stocks are down today on price cut headlines. This downside put an abrupt halt on the BTC recovery, and reversed BTC back ↓ 

 

Here’s another view, which includes overnight japan hours where BTC was recovering, and gave that up at Japan cash equity market open:

Craig P
Independent Macro/Vol/Crypto/Quant/Fintech Nerd

SPX Closing at All Time Highs vs VIX Levels

I saw this model in a recent Goldman report and thought I would try and build it out/ play around with it. 

This chart is essentially showing how the VIX is hitting lower levels each time SPX is closing at a new all time high, which is a trend we haven't really seen since 2017. 

According to the GS report, this could be similar to price action (highlighted in green) during the build up of the 1998 crash . 

Blue: SPX closing at ATH.      Green: ATH between 1997-1998    Orange: ATH in 2021    
Blue: SPX closing at ATH.      Green: ATH between 1997-1998    Orange: ATH in 2021    

Just to try and one up GS, I plotted those dates on to some normal charts to give it more context. You can see the similarity a lot better when it's plotted over the VIX. 

Same GS dates plotted on SPX.

 

Bonus Chart: 

It's apparently pretty rare for the market to hit a new all time high when the VIX is above 20. Hasn't happened since the build up of the tech bubble. 

So far so good? 
So far so good? 
Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

BTC: How I analyze market price action at this moment (and how to NOT: ❌China ❌hash rate drop)

I posted this explaining the BTC / crypto sell off this weekend:
BTC drop compared in USD & JPY

@Dyutiman Das has a great response with the below as we were discussing this China blackout / hash rate drop catalyst in another thread post.
Below is my response. which im posting as this separate post so as to not have it buried / only visible to those following. This is my explanation of whats behind the current BTC price action as I, a trader in various financial markets. see it, and the best single global coincident indicator at the moment on spot BTC: stock price action of 8696 Monex Group.

This is also addressing a broader matter I see developing within the crypto community mirroring exactly the same trap that I’ve personally experienced in my hedge fund sales & trading roles with once great / now failed fund managers stuck on fundamental analysis for their long / short stock picking. as well as macro fundamental analysis and macro bets on USTs, yen etc.

Feel free to disagree of course. but just showing a different angle that likely hasn’t been considered by anyone.. And thanks @Dyutiman Das for the question!

(in response to BTC drop compared in USD & JPY )

@Weston Nakamura great analysis, and the round number effect is kind of eye opening.

Any thoughts on how we should reconcile this finding with the drop in hash rate? Glassnode shows that the slowdown preceded the price drop. So blackout... (More)