AFTER HOURS exclusively on the Exchange with @Jack Farley

READ the original thesis:

Theory: Monex has become more BTC than GBTC, and even more than BTC itself (theory explained)

See Monex Group absolute blowout earnings FY20 (reported 4/27/21) & Subsequent BTC Price Action ↓

Monex extreme swings (net 8% in 10 mins on 2nd most volume while rest of markets calm) immediately following Bank of Japan policy announcement & earnings at market close: ↓

Additional Charts & material:

BTC vs JAPAN Cash Equity Trading

✔️ BTCJPY ¥6mn resistance vs ❌BTCUSD $55k

GBTC premium & discount vs GBTC/Monex Ratio:

BOJ BTC MONEX charts from previous posts (therefore not updated but concept remains). Also, see how Monex / Japan retail ”crushed“ (barely) BTC -20% 2 weekends ago.

•Intraday Charts from Mon 4/26, w/ BOJ policy release during lunch break (11:30am -12:30pm) & Monex earnings few mins after market close (15:00)

•BTC vs MONEX Price Action - which leads which? (Monex leads)

When Monex is open for trading, BTC snaps in line.

Monex‘s massively positive FY’20 earnings (EBITA +500% YoY largely due to crypto growth), released right at market close (15:00), right when BTC begins rallying and on day’s highs in volume.

Monex earnings were taken positive +5% at next day‘s open. IF BTC is being “dog tail wagged“ by Monex, is the BTC aftermarket rally reflecting the Monex earnings in real time? (In other words - is BTC becoming an accidental proxy for Monex instead of the other way around? see chart... (More)

4 areas of focus hit headlines at once. I decided to just make separate video clips for each topic, so a 3 min into + 4 videos following.

These were supposed to go out yesterday. Turns out that writing everything out would’ve been more timely after all. Oh well- still experimenting here. Let me know any feedback please, thanks as always!

I. Intro

II. BOJ

III. Monex: the BTC driver

IV. UBS

V. Nomura

I. Intro (3min) & NOTE: global markets are WITHOUT Japan flows for the next 7 days of holiday (USTs, NDX, BTC, EM FX could see direct impact absent one of largest players)

II. BOJ April Policy Meeting Review: Was NOT a non-event

III. 8968 MONEX Group Earnings were released Mon after close, this was supposed to go out before Japan market open this morning- apologies. but video still applies of course

Previous Note: Theory: Monex has become more BTC than GBTC, and even more than BTC itself (theory explained)
(see more charts below)

IV. UBS - “surprise!” -$774mn loss on Archegos to join the club. Why their temporary silence is deafening

V. Nomura (uploading)

Additional Charts & material:

BTC vs JAPAN Cash Equity Trading

GBTC premium & discount vs GBTC/Monex Ratio:

BOJ BTC MONEX charts:
Intraday Charts from Mon 4/26, w/ BOJ policy release during lunch break (11:30am -12:30pm) & Monex earnings few mins after market close (15:00)

BTC vs MONEX Price Action - which leads which? (Monex leads)

When Monex is open for trading, BTC... (More)