Skip to main content

Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
123 members
1 question
12 posts

Raoul PalVisionary
CEO/Co-Founder Real Vision/ Global Macro Investor

MSCI China

I dont quite understand that this is saying but MSCI China is one hell of a beautiful wedge that is breaking out. Any views on this outside of the stronger RMB?

MSCI China
MSCI China

Saudi Arabia - A Left Field EM Idea?

I recently wrote-up a short report on Saudi Arabia (in the Pro Slack channel) in which I was debating whether it should be part of an EM portfolio. Saudi has gone through real changes in the past few years, from establishing friendly and efficient customs services at the airport, to actually allowing music and film. They are even advertising the country as a Golf and Tourist destination. SAMA, the regulatory authority, is very active and switched on. Businesses are investing in technology.

  • Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy grew by 3.3 percent in 2019 - fastest rate since 2014
  • Crude petroleum and natural gas accounted for 27.4 percent of GDP
  • Government services : 19.4 percent.
  • Wholesale, retail, restaurants and hotels were third largest contributor to GDP at 10%
  • Vision 2030 aims to diversify the economy. more residential building, more steel, more infrastructure (Metro in Riyadh), more 'smart cities', Red Sea development & tourism. Etc. Estimates say that KSA could hold $1.3 Trillion worth of minerals. This could translate into 450,000 direct and indirect jobs over 10 years (Compare that to Australia's mining industry with an est. revenue of 282B USD and a workforce of roughly 250K people).

There are two ETF's that make it possible for the retail investor to get involved: FLSA and KSA. In summary I concluded that In my view, the probability of Vision 2030 to succeed is high enough to merit some investment in Saudi as part of an EM play at some point, perhaps 2021/2022. Interested in... (More)


Bharat Bond ETF

For a while I was looking for India government bond ETF but they don't seem to exist and outright Indian sovereign bonds don't seem to be available on my platform (IB).

Then I came across the Bharat Bond ETF, an Indian government initiative that seems to invest in (initially) AAA rated SOE's mostly, following a Nifty bond index with a defined maturity and yield and automatic coupon reinvestment. Fees/taxes seem OK for an active ETF.

I'm not really planning/committing to hold it through maturity, current perspective about 1 year from now.

Any experience/views on this product in particular?

Populism and Peronism - the toxic PP

The picture below shows that the lowest denomination bank note in EUR is the same value as the highest denomination bank note in Argentine Pesos (based on parallel market FX rates). Thirty years ago the relationship was 1:1. If you go back further the devaluation is exponentially worse.

The magic of populism and Peronist doctrine applied over decades captured in one image.

And you still want to invest?