What is going on with housing? Supply is extremely constrained, houses are sitting on the market for record low periods, and months to clear inventory is at all time lows, and units on the market for this time of year are at all time lows. Ok, so housing supply is limited... or is it?

Housing completions for 2020 were at multi year high- the September peak (annualized at 1.4 million units finished) is the highest reading since October 2007. Link

Total housing inventory in the US is at all time highs and on trend for the last 9 years despite the pandemic. Link

Rent in major cities rose ~2% in 2020, down from ~4% trend growth leading in. Link

Forward looking- new housing permits in January ‘21 hit a rate not seen since mid 2006 and were 23% higher than housing permits in Jan ‘20, and 44% higher than Jan ‘19. Link

So it does not appear that supply on its own is the issue here- the home vacancy rate is where I will start an explanation because its collapse is so dramatic. The vacancy rate was tied for an all time low at 1.4% in 2019- and it dropped to 1% in 2020, that is a 28% decline from an all time low to a new all time low. This is not explained by a large increase in households- in fact total households declined in the US during 2020 (slightly) and since we have expanding housing stock, and if... (More)

In 1926 RCA, Radio Corp of America, was a new tech that added to the fuel that created the blowoff top in 1929. The perpetual question is, what the new tech that is going to change the world, I know, but at this point I find the question particularly important as the correct answer isn't just a 4x as seen in TSLA over the past year.

Passive investment doesn't just create a brittle market where cracks are exacerbated. It also hardens the rails that the market on and makes it more immune to attack (achegos, potentally etc.)

The current environment of the stock market reminds me of a poker game when you have a bunch of newbs show up at the table. They fuck it all up. The randomness and ignorance that they play with makes the old rules of playing the best odds less reliable. For example: in a classic game of texas hold 'em you land 2 kings on the draw. The flop is unimpressive so you go all in. In a normal game everyone folds at this point and you win a small pot, but because you have newbs at the table some dude goes in with you. You show your hands. He has one ace and a smile and you have 2 kings. You get ready to start scraping the pot and he gets an ace on the river. You lose. The difference here is all the brokerage houses and pro's know the game, and newbs... (More)