Expert Insights and Analysis on precious metals from Real Vision journalists and members

This exchange includes the previous separate exchanges Precious Metals, Commodities, Bonds, and Forex. They are now all included under the umbrella of Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities, so any post related to these topics, post it here and tag it with the related topic.

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GoldMacroeconomicsMonetary Policy

Asked a question 12 hours ago

I would like to know what people think the implications are of Basal III NSFR for precious metals coming into effect ... and other assets such as Bitcoin?

Liked by McChicken Wik

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Trade Idea

Precious MetalsGoldThe InterviewMacroeconomicsCredit & DebtTrade IdeasCharts & ReportsVideos

Posted 15 hours ago

Long 30y USTs (TLT) → Long Gold (GLD)

@Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre trade idea
Holding Period - Two Part Sequence:

1, Long Risk-Free Duration via 30y UST (or TLT, ZROZ) Until market sentiment/positioning pivots to deflation & insolvency expectations → long end yields drop/bond prices ↑ (convexity), SELL...

2. BUY Gold on dip w/ UST gains proceeds

long term UST yields & gold move in tandem until March 2020 divergence - take profit on USTs & switch to gold

2008 crisis: Long duration +40% in weeks, gold drops -30% & outperforms thereafter

RV President @Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre ‘s trade from interview on Travis’ deflationary macro outlook. Also discusses what’s next for former President Trump & possible market implications

Link to video from Jan 26 here

For the sake of comments, let’s not debate inflation vs deflation, or “all good 👍” vs ”insolvency” - rather, assume deflation + insolvency a given.

Comment on the trade itself: Is this trade construction & strategy the best way to play deflationary shock? Anyone have a better risk adjusted return?

6 replies

Liked by Jeremiah S and 2 others

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Precious MetalsGoldBondsMacroeconomicsOilCommoditiesUSDVideos

Posted 16 hours ago

Gold update Tues 26th Jan 2021

TLDR:

Correlations always change.
Watch rates - EU has not followed US.
I need to make shorter videos.

https://exchange.realvision.com/post/gold-misnomers-5fcfc147ddd8803ec68044a8 <- real interest rates equation and description of Rate of Change impact on left and right side.

Liked by Ross Moger

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GoldTreasury BondsCommoditiesEmerging MarketsPlatinumCopperEquitiesS&P500Charts & ReportsVideos

Posted 3 days ago

Weekend Trend Update: A bit of everything highlighting some of the topics covered in the Friday's RV Daily Briefing.

https://youtu.be/gUu_-4m09AI

@Ash Bennington and @Raoul Pal had a great discussion on the RVDB Friday night and I wanted to share a chart I created showing the 2yr yield vs the 10yr yield. I also take a look at some stock indexes, gold, copper, soybeans, rice,platinum,and Brent crude oil. Lastly, a recommendation to check out @Han S Rhee excellent video on bitcoin and ethereum. https://exchange.realvision.com/post/bitcoin-chart-update-video-600c88581f824d2fa365e37c