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Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities
Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities
10964 members
182 questions
577 posts

This exchange includes the previous separate exchanges Precious Metals, Commodities, Bonds, and Forex. They are now all included under the umbrella of Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities, so any post related to these topics, post it here and tag it with the related topic.

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Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Long 30y USTs (TLT) → Long Gold (GLD)

@Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre trade idea
Holding Period - Two Part Sequence:

1, Long Risk-Free Duration via 30y UST (or TLT, ZROZ) Until market sentiment/positioning pivots to deflation & insolvency expectations → long end yields drop/bond prices ↑ (convexity), SELL...

 

2. BUY Gold on dip w/ UST gains proceeds 

 

 long term UST yields & gold move in tandem until March 2020 divergence - take profit on USTs & switch to gold 
 long term UST yields & gold move in tandem until March 2020 divergence - take profit on USTs & switch to gold 
2008 crisis: Long duration +40% in weeks, gold drops -30% & outperforms thereafter
2008 crisis: Long duration +40% in weeks, gold drops -30% & outperforms thereafter

RV President @Travis Kimmel & @Steven Van Metre ‘s trade from interview on Travis’  deflationary macro outlook. Also discusses what’s next for former President Trump & possible market implications 

Link to video from Jan 26 here

For the sake of comments, let’s not debate inflation vs deflation, or “all good 👍” vs ”insolvency”  - rather, assume deflation + insolvency a given.  

Comment on the trade itself: Is this trade construction & strategy the best way to play deflationary shock? Anyone have a better risk adjusted return?

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

Gold update Tues 26th Jan 2021

TLDR:

  • Correlations always change.
  • Watch rates - EU has not followed US.
  • I need to make shorter videos.

https://exchange.realvision.com/post/gold-misnomers-5fcfc147ddd8803ec68044a8 <- real interest rates equation and description of Rate of Change impact on left and right side.

 

Weekend Trend Update: A bit of everything highlighting some of the topics covered in the Friday's RV Daily Briefing.

https://youtu.be/gUu_-4m09AI

@Ash Bennington and @Raoul Pal had a great discussion on the RVDB Friday night and I wanted to share a chart I created showing the 2yr yield vs the 10yr yield. I also take a look at some stock indexes, gold, copper, soybeans, rice,platinum,and Brent crude oil. Lastly, a recommendation to check out @Han S Rhee excellent video on bitcoin and ethereum. https://exchange.realvision.com/post/bitcoin-chart-update-video-600c88581f824d2fa365e37c