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Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities
Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities
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This exchange includes the previous separate exchanges Precious Metals, Commodities, Bonds, and Forex. They are now all included under the umbrella of Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities, so any post related to these topics, post it here and tag it with the related topic.

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Team, what is a good book on futures and trading contracts for a beginner?

European Union Lifts Bond-Sale Ban for Some Banks-June 18 (Europe bout to get stimmy’s!)

When the EU is­sued €20 bil­lion, equiv­a­lent to $24 bil­lion, of bonds on Tues­day to raise funds for a fis­cal stim­u­lus pack­age, it ex­cluded some of the world’s largest banks be­cause of their par­tic­i­pa­tion in car­tels in bond and cur­rency mar­kets in ear­lier years. The banks had been pe­nal­ized for those ac­tions in 2019 and 2021.

The EU ex­pects to sell up to €60 bil­lion of long-dated debt this year and €150 bil­lion an­nu­ally through 2026, and plans to use the funds to sup­port mem­ber states’ eco­nomic re­cov­ery through a mix of grants and loans. The pro­gram, the first ma­jor pan-Eu­ropean debt pro­gram, will even­tu­ally raise around €800 bil­lion over five years.

John Crockett
Independent Global Macro Investor

Inflation Vs. Deflation (Goods vs. Services): Quick Thoughts & Analysis of Peter Boockvar's Views

Just watched another good Peter Boockvar video on the inflation debate. Was basically a re-hash of his RVDB interview the other week with Ed Harrison, with some interesting caveats and additional thoughts. Link here:

We currently have a ton going on in the inflation versus deflation debate, and yesterday's meltdown in the value/commodity & PM (and tech strength) space could either be a watershed moment for the next few months/weeks -- or it just could have been a small bump in the road for the commodity supercycle. Or something in between (more likely)?

I follow a lot of people on RV, Twitter and just on YouTube. On the inflationista side of the equation (i.e. inflation is NOT transitory, at least for the next 2-3 quarters) we've got guys like Peter Boockvar, Jared Dillian, Tony Greer, Keith McCullough, Jeff Gundlach & Julian Brigden (among others). Raoul and guys like Scott Minerd from Guggenheim are currently still in the 'it's transitory, yields going back down' camp. They have been right the last few weeks, but whatever side you're on, all of them make pretty good cases either "for" or "against" continuing inflation.

For me at least, Boockvar's overview really spells out the battle clearly and concisely and I think he's right that we're ultimately going to see more service industry inflation for in the coming months for sure.

Reasons being:

  1. Rent portion of services inflation poised to really break out in the coming months (PCE undercounts it though)
  2. healthcare component also going... (More)

Gold and Silver shaking out the weak hands?

I don't know what caused the sell off (just more volume selling than buying.)

Don't really need to know the "Why" but we know that gold and silver markets are more driven by paper assets and derivatives than physical gold and silver. 

I see this as shaking out the weak hands before a significant move to the upside. (This is just one person's opinion)

I also think the move in $USD won't last for more than few days to few weeks - similar to what we saw in March 2021 with some volatile market action. 

It's an opportunity to buy more gold and silver.  

[(Disclosure: Personally, I have call options on GLD (180C Nov, 2021), SLV (26C Sep 2021),  (26C Oct 2021, (30C June 2022),  (25C Jan 2023)]. I like the potential of silver more than gold as a technician.   

I don't recommend trading these options short terms (probably the worst instruments for short-term trading less than 1~2 months for the like 90% of the time. 

Here are weekly & daily chart of /GC (Gold Futures) then /SI (Silver Futures).

Please refer to the video within. 


Also if you're interested I talked about $DXY little bit in this post