Perhaps an unpopular opinion... but gold still looks heavy to me with rates on the rise.
TRADE IDEA
Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities GoldMacroeconomicsStocksInvestment IdeasCharts & Reports Another Leg Down For Gold?
Another Leg Down For Gold?
Where am I?
In The Exchange you can ask and answer questions and share your experience with others!
Well, if it breaks down then I guess I'm wondering where the massive gdp growth and/or massive inflation are? Something isn't adding up.
Those bond yields are going up for a reason.
Well the major gold producers and streamers have broken to new lows. With them having record earnings being released, it is perplexing to say the least. And gold broke below its previous low of $1775. I think it is possible to see a retest of support down at $1350.
Personally I sold off my physical gold position. I think cash serves the same purpose as gold at the moment, but cash has a lot more flexibility. But I am quite bullish on Platinum. I have a relative value chart for the precious metals.
I wish I had this back when I was buying silver in 2009-2011. It is the same as now, but platinum and palladium were in inverse positions. I created data sets that go back to the 1890's for as many different asset classes as I could find. Platinum, Oil, Uranium, Natural Gas, Corn, Sugar, & Copper are all very cheap in historical terms.
The reflation guys are going to need to have to ask themselves what is going on with real rates at some point. Gold is really telling me that CPI is going to need to put up or shut up in the not too distant future.
I see a Cup and Handled in the monthly chart if it broke down will be very bad
I've been wondering that. The wider sentiment seems to be that everything's fine, the problems have been fixed, and nearly endless Fed stimulus is coming. All these will cause more risk-on, the bubble to inflate further, and safe assets to go down. The algorithms are trained to buy the dip and buy into Fed stimulus, so that trend will continue unless the Fed tightens (unlikely).
The question is what will reverse this trend. Market sentiment swung wildly in Feb-Mar 2020. I remember shorting the market in February wondering why no one else was worried about covid. Every day brings more bad news about the abysmal global economy. Inflation is appearing in real estate, food prices, and energy, but not in CPI. Someday sentiment will swing, but predicting it has proven almost impossible.
An agile investor could probably profit from continued weakness in gold, then pile in ahead of a returning bull run. I'm horrible at timing the market, so I'll hodl my gold and gold miners for the time being.