Not saying this will happen, just putting this out there in case it does as the explanation would then be deemed “more credible.” 

For anyone who has glanced at the Exchange any day this week starting hours from within BTC dropped last sun, you’ll have seen any one of my daily posts about what may be a reason/indicator for  BTC behaving the way it is. 

And no it’s not hashrate from China coal power outage (ironically ahead of China Xi heading into climate change discussions)

Nor is it the whispers from US Dept of Treas on some form of banning crypto (ironically as newest whispers are on taxation of gains = govt acknowledge legitimacy)

I don’t know why BTC is dropping, nor is it ever only one single driver. But ’ve been pointing to Monex Group shares every day for a week (prev links at bottom). And thus far, seems my explanation makes far more sense than the nonsense.

BTCJPY has been trading side by side Monex Group- for the overall YTD upside, as well as the pullback moments, very much including the current one in which both are getting liquidated together on a  % for % basis by Japan retail (these are facts pure and simple. WHY is unknown / not provable, but just want to repeat that these are facts).   

Last week on Friday afternoon JST, Monex shares has a blow off top and closes at lows, testing a key support level of ¥1000, and trading on elevated volume into Japan cash equity close - a near term bearish outlook on crypto from Japan retail, and was setting up for more crypto liquidation if price triggered to do so. Sunday around noon JST, that price technical trigger hit, and BTC falls sharply by algos and stop losses + illiquid market timing. Monday, Monex shares break below ¥1000 support and fall further. This past week, BTC & Monex shares moved side by side % for %.  

Today (Fri heading into weekend again), Monex dropped -12% and flirting with a very key support level of ¥764 (call it ¥800-ish). ¥764 breaks, next stop down is the ¥500  level. Given BTC and Monex trade % for % this whole time, a ¥800 → ¥500 drop would be the equivalent of BTCUSD in the $30k handle (remember, BTC started the year w/ a low ld $27k). 
BTCUSD $40k would be where all (Western/America-centric) eyes are fixated as support, and indeed it may be should it come to that. $40k was a very real resistance for BTCUSD to break through. But it may also be as solid a support floor as a wet paper towel if BTC is being driven by non USD aware/caring BTC investors. 

Either way, last week saw the setup of Monex shares sold into Japan close Fri right above breaking ¥1000, and then on Sunday got a -20% (or more) drop in BTC. We’re now watching the same movie as of this moment. So just be aware, and perhaps set a contingency plan should another -20% instant drop come (and note the time of day, who’s awake/not globally). If you’re looking to go long, its far easier to buy into a -20% sell off when it’s something anticipated (IF you’re a buyer at those levels). 

This past week

8698 Monex Group sitting right at key support- Japan retail ready to sell crypto / proxies.

...putting BTC at risk of mirroring Monex‘s key price levels. BTC & Monex (%) : 

Why ¥800 is a major major level on Monex ↓ 


Just because $40k on BTCUSD was a major significant resistance to clear on the way up, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s of support on the way down.  

prior notes from the week: 
 Your (apparently now) daily BTC price action due to 🇯🇵 retail & 8698 Monex Group update

BTC: How I analyze market price action at this moment (and how to NOT: ❌China ❌hash rate drop)

 BTC drop compared in USD & JPY