AFTER HOURS exclusively on the Exchange with @Jack Farley
READ the original thesis:
See Monex Group absolute blowout earnings FY20 (reported 4/27/21) & Subsequent BTC Price Action ↓
Monex extreme swings (net 8% in 10 mins on 2nd most volume while rest of markets calm) immediately following Bank of Japan policy announcement & earnings at market close: ↓
Additional Charts & material:
BTC vs JAPAN Cash Equity Trading
✔️ BTCJPY ¥6mn resistance vs ❌BTCUSD $55k
GBTC premium & discount vs GBTC/Monex Ratio:
BOJ BTC MONEX charts from previous posts (therefore not updated but concept remains). Also, see how Monex / Japan retail ”crushed“ (barely) BTC -20% 2 weekends ago.
•Intraday Charts from Mon 4/26, w/ BOJ policy release during lunch break (11:30am -12:30pm) & Monex earnings few mins after market close (15:00)
•BTC vs MONEX Price Action - which leads which? (Monex leads)
When Monex is open for trading, BTC snaps in line.
Monex‘s massively positive FY’20 earnings (EBITA +500% YoY largely due to crypto growth), released right at market close (15:00), right when BTC begins rallying and on day’s highs in volume.
Monex earnings were taken positive +5% at next day‘s open. IF BTC is being “dog tail wagged“ by Monex, is the BTC aftermarket rally reflecting the Monex earnings in real time? (In other words - is BTC becoming an accidental proxy for Monex instead of the other way around? see chart above & below.
•SELL OFF WEEK Summed Up: Monex lost -22%, BTC lost 23%
8698 Monex Group sitting right at key support- Japan retail ready to sell crypto / proxies.
...putting BTC at risk of mirroring Monex‘s key price levels. BTC & Monex (%) :
Why ¥800 is a major major level on Monex ↓
Just because $40k on BTCUSD was a major significant resistance to clear on the way up, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s of support on the way down.
BTC this weekend: 1 more -20% drop to $40k possible
MONEX EARNINGS MARTERIAL
Notable slides from Monex IR earnings material: (full PDF here)
Monex vs BTC volatility