AFTER HOURS exclusively on the Exchange with @Jack Farley 

https://vimeo.com/543472737
Not a question of being a BTC proxy, it clearly is. Question is: has BTC become MONEX’s accidental proxy? (Yes)
Not a question of being a BTC proxy, it clearly is. Question is: has BTC become MONEX’s accidental proxy? (Yes)
GBTC NAV premium & discount (purple) vs GBTc/Monex price ratio
GBTC NAV premium & discount (purple) vs GBTc/Monex price ratio


READ the original thesis:

Theory: Monex has become more BTC than GBTC, and even more than BTC itself (theory explained)


See Monex Group absolute blowout earnings FY20  (reported 4/27/21) & Subsequent BTC Price Action ↓ 

https://vimeo.com/542633492

 

Monex extreme swings (net 8% in 10 mins on 2nd most volume while rest of markets calm) immediately following  Bank of Japan policy announcement & earnings at market close: ↓ 

https://vimeo.com/542396482

Additional Charts & material:

BTC vs JAPAN  Cash Equity Trading 

✔️  BTCJPY ¥6mn resistance vs ❌BTCUSD $55k

GBTC premium & discount vs GBTC/Monex Ratio:


BOJ BTC MONEX charts from previous posts (therefore not updated but concept remains). Also, see how Monex / Japan retail ”crushed“ (barely) BTC -20% 2 weekends ago. 

•Intraday Charts from Mon 4/26, w/ BOJ policy release during lunch break (11:30am -12:30pm) & Monex earnings few mins after market close (15:00)


•BTC vs MONEX Price Action - which leads which? (Monex leads)

When Monex is open for trading, BTC snaps in line. 

Monex‘s massively positive FY’20 earnings (EBITA +500% YoY largely due to crypto growth), released right at market close (15:00), right when BTC begins rallying and on day’s highs in volume. 

Monex earnings were taken positive +5% at next day‘s open. IF BTC is being “dog tail wagged“ by Monex, is the BTC aftermarket rally reflecting the Monex earnings in real time? (In other words - is BTC becoming an accidental proxy for Monex instead of the other way around? see chart above & below. 

•SELL OFF WEEK Summed Up: Monex lost -22%, BTC lost 23%

8698 Monex Group sitting right at key support- Japan retail ready to sell crypto / proxies.

...putting BTC at risk of mirroring Monex‘s key price levels. BTC & Monex (%) : 

Why ¥800 is a major major level on Monex ↓ 


Just because $40k on BTCUSD was a major significant resistance to clear on the way up, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s of support on the way down.  

 

PREVIOUS NOTES:
BTC this weekend: 1 more -20% drop to $40k possible

Your (apparently now) daily BTC price action due to 🇯🇵 retail & 8698 Monex Group update

BTC: How I analyze market price action at this moment (and how to NOT: ❌China ❌hash rate drop)

 BTC drop compared in USD & JPY

MONEX EARNINGS  MARTERIAL 

Notable slides from Monex IR earnings material: (full PDF here)

Monex vs BTC volatility