I think the series Raoul kicked off is really good. The link is here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-expert-view/videos/is-everything-a-bubble-why-thats-the-wrong-question?source_collection=fe19ab8abedc40ea94ccc32be93b1948
So I am wondering what each of you guys are seeing in your everyday life in regards to a bubble vs no bubble? In your specific domain of life that you specialize in, do you see bubble-like characteristics and excessive speculation? This could be in finance or simply at the job you work at. I know we can break down the prices and data of every single domain but the look you get on the ground can't always be quantified, so what are you seeing/thinking?
Here is something I found recently. In my local community, I have seen excessive activity in options. People getting recommendations via Whatsapp groups to buy options and exit them. I have been invited to couple of parties which were arranged in celebration to their success of making >$100K in under a week. At the risk of being pejorative why I see that this is a bubble:
The last point to me is a clear sign of danger because the game is not to make money as underlying business is growing, rather the belief and ability that they can sell the stock at a higher price to someone who would be willing to buy. This works till it does not.
With all that said here are potential outcomes:
With the support from CB, their unemployment mandate, and high yield debt market situation I can see how the second scenario can play out. Thoughts...?
My local residential real estate market is pretty bubblicious at the moment. It was strong before COVID but sales have accelerated since. 2020 was a record year for sales. we Seem to be a big beneficiary of flight from metro areas and the new comers seem pretty price insensitive.
To be honest with interest rates going down it has become much easier to take on a 30 year fixed mortgage at sub 2.5%. This is does not surprise me.
If @Raoul Pal prediction is right and we go into negative rates, I would not be surprised to see a further price increase in housing.
Basically everyone I know outside finance started trading last year and made some money. I can't even keep track of the obscure products I have been questioned about.
All the guys who already have stocks are buying alternative assets. Gold, art, watches, real estate (further out the city, selling the city real estate). No one seems to be buying cars.