Today is a good day for the rational traders who reason their trading to do some science and test their thesis....  

Reminds me of the Santa Claus effect  - welcome back TG (and Ash).  

Anyway, everyone has seen and commented on the sharp rebound last night on the US.  Covered that yesterday.  Today we followed through with that, continuing higher on both the cash and the futures.  Tricky move higher.  Hit different levels, with small pullbacks, but no clear trades.  The contingent markets were not giving clear correlations.  The Nikkei up a touch  early, the US futures too, yet they faded as we ground higher.  Passive buying just holding the line, then surging a bit, holding etc.  The Nikkei came around, and was up about 0.35% at 11am, off highs of about 0.55%.  We kept poking at highs, making new highs.  Passive buying increased as active selling increased - a battle ! was being played out.  

We hit a high - I screen shotted it as I just had a sense it was time - frustration top picking is not a technique I would advise.  Yet I know this clown I trade, and so sometimes just know.  

Was actually a good call.  Oddly pre-empted lower than expected retail sales, but not falling quickly, as the passive crowd were not finished.  


Active selling into the rally this morning.  The high here, fiat-called it.  I don't have such powers btw.

Yet the $AUD came off, the AUDJPY too, and that small trend continued into 1pm.  Oddly, the Nikkei got slammed into 12pm, and then later.  There were BoJ minutes and other data from Japan earlier in the session, so IF a reaction to that it was delayed.  US futures fell too, yet we were holding a line. 

Until we didn't.  Strong fall - which was expected (high put in).  The bounce was just silly.  Passive buying dominating and to be honest, a strong bounce out of context.  The Nikkei staying 0.5% weaker or more, US futures lower by 0.1%, the Hang Sang down 0.5% (was down 1% at one stage, after starting the day positive.

I was expecting a fade to range into the rest of the  day.  Not sure the move can't move a touch higher from here, or when the selling will dominate.  I don't have the luxury of option trading - if I am early or late I get stopped out.  There is a LOT more involved in futures trading - the timing and price is vital to nail.  Then the rest.  

Passive up till now - lunch big bounce. 


BTC - bored already.  Overnight there was no follow through.  Today same - weaker, respecting the overnight range, and now is $20 higher.  While it is not a bullish sign (don't jump on a single piece of bullish news to confirm your hopes), it is part of the  problem for BTC.  The longer it memes around, the more negative it is for the asset.  

Nothing here is following through - gold a bit weaker, silver too.  Crude fading a small rally.  The $AUD staying weaker - the pound weaker overnight! v other majors.  Yen came off a touch too.  There is still a bearish potential to the whole market in my opinion.  

Chatter about some Musky-Aark talk tomorrow.  Doge pump?

This passive buying is again a solid support - for hedging (options) a strong possibility.  The higher prob (just) is a fade.  Maybe not a lot of juice - the earlier trade was the meatier cut.  

We'll see.  

Ok - lets (updating 2.5 hours later)...

Passive selling across the PM (active too) - strong.

As suggested, sold down.  Algo perfect.  Funny - you could trade these posts...  

Nikkei off lows, but weaker.  US futures a touch red, not showing any lead.  The risk off signs are the $AUD and AUDJPY weakening.  BTC strong $900 bounce on some joke of a "talk".  I'll keep quiet.  Hong Kong staying weak too, down over 0.7%.  Silver a sudden turn around in the PM, up 1%.  Odd. Gold flat, crude keeping smallish gains.  Hi ho...