Let me draw you back to a super important time in market history. You could not move for teets and news reports and newsletters and podcasts.
Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal.
What was meant to happen in October on a farm in Iowa finally happened over the weekend of 24th Nov 2019. Monday 25th (my birthday for future reference) markets opened all joyous rainbows and puppy dogs as far as the eye could see.
Maybe there was a problem with turkey day?
I know in hindsight it is very easy to pick these little times of panic and point and laugh. These news events are just that tiny tiles in a huge mosiac.
OPEC+ increasing production has been the news of the week coupled with Delta and our inner view Options expiry. Two days does not make a complete reversal but will this just be another tiny tile?
That said the immediate term it feels like some have breathed a sigh of relief I can see a higher low coming. A pullback not to the recent lows of Mon-Tues but just to form a higher low to build the next move.
Factors: SPHB High Beta +3.1% and more than 6% in 2days which feeds what I said above. SPLV Low Beta was the only factor down on the day -0.42%. MTUM Momentum again following XLF Financials.
Sectors: XLE Energy topping the day in equities +3.49%. What we have to watch is this second strong day in price came on lower volume.
Fixed Income: We seem to have passed through a period very similar to April daily performance is mirroring YTD could this be another USD up scare? All the deflationistas saying at the start of the year "rates are going up too fast" "the market won't take it" Will they now also admit rates may have fallen too fast? Anyone?
FX: FXC Canadian Dollar +0.9% biggest mover on oil strength. FXB British Pound this was a surprising one as it didn't seem to take part at all the previous day. "safety" was sold UUP Dollar FXY Yen GLD Gold.
Commodities: GBTC Bitcoin bounce on some dude with a beard talking to some chap that builds cars that crash?