• Nat gas: fracking, production disruption (trade idea)
  • Lumber: supply chain, homebuilding & housing demand (trade idea)
  • Autos: used cars, dealership inventory
  • US employment: job posting, unique observation on labor shortage

IMAGES & analysis from the road:

  • Boat hauling: behavior of wealthy
  • Aluminum ingots: industrial activity
  • Lumber shipments 
  • WTF is this…???

New Discussions

•Bill or no bill, US infrastructure is alive and well (bridges, wind power, metro subway cars)

Shipping & delivery demand getting unmanageable, eyes on disrupted supply chain for ‘21 holiday cycle



 KB, Lennar, HomeDepot & Lowe’s -  too much single stock risk that I don’t know enough about- nor care to, as homebulder ETFs ITB, XHB & PKB hold these names and have outperformed. ITB +200% vs SPX +80% to peak in early May, then -15%. If the on-the-ground demand is still alive and well, pullback seems like an entry point, right?

Then I realized - these ETFs are actually just betting on long dated USTs.

Clearly there are broad directional ties.

Also not saying therefore homebuilder ETF longs are bad, nor am I a UST bear steepener. Just want my homebuilder & UST bets separate- because if the same trade, I want to scale exposure vs be long builders short duration in one.

Separate post on NG futures coming.

WATCH previous Exchanging Lanes Debut Episode here

Thanks for your thoughts, insights and feedback!

 follow → @Brad S