A fun "what if" analysis based on listening + acting on the words of media's favourite 🐻's:
I find it good stuff to reflect on. Because the doom stories are mostly very convincing and loss aversion is very real, especially the older one gets (less time to make up the gains).
This analysis is just an exercise and does not reflect reality (except four Nouriel Roubini who really is a Perma Bear) since if you would have invested in the funds of some of these guys you probably would have done better than this graph lets you believe. Also, these guys change their minds & this isn't reflected in the graph.
you can read the whole piece here:
Part 1, 2019: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists.pdf
Part 2, includes covid Nov 2020: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists-revisited.pdf
As the pinch of salt I would include this reflection from Jeremy Grantham in "Waiting for the last dance":
Thanks for posting this. Wealth is created by accumulating and owning assets over time and not shunning away from them. It is a just a matter of having the right mix between defensive and aggressive and non correlation. Perma bears and economists are the worst people to listen to when it comes to making money.