A fun "what if" analysis based on listening + acting on the words of media's favourite 🐻's: 

Micheal Cambalest 2019
Micheal Cambalest 2019

 

I find it good stuff to reflect on. Because the doom stories are mostly very convincing and loss aversion is very real, especially the older one gets (less time to make up the gains). 

This analysis is just an exercise and does not reflect reality (except four Nouriel Roubini who really is a Perma Bear) since if you would have invested in the funds of some of these guys you probably would have done better than this graph lets you believe. Also, these guys change their minds & this isn't reflected in the graph. 

 

From part 2: revisited to include the covid crash. 
From part 2: revisited to include the covid crash. 

 

you can read the whole piece here:

Part 1, 2019: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists.pdf

Part 2, includes covid Nov 2020: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists-revisited.pdf

 

As the pinch of salt I would include this reflection from Jeremy Grantham in "Waiting for the last dance": 
 

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/