From a small Irish carrier, Ryanair has become the world's third and Europes most valuable airline by market cap (funny enough EU airline consolidation hasn't hurt them). In 2019 they carried 150Million passengers vs 130M for Southwest ($LUV) the US low-cost airline. This makes it one of the top 10 airlines in the world by passengers.

What I think everyone knows is that companies, where growth begets growth, are not the norm and that those that exist are very well known. Think Amazon, Costco, Wallmart but also vanguard or BlackRock. As they grow in size they share their scale advantage with their customers. It turns out its not as common a business model as I used to think. But the shareholder returns seem to be pretty good.


One has to ask why not hold companies with this business model in perpetuity? 

Interesting enough, due to Brexit all UK shareholders lost their voting rights. 😂🤷‍♂️.

What I would like to know is all the reasons people might not like this company (apart from the not enough legroom, and that nobody is actually happily flying Ryanair but keeps doing so anyway because they have by far the lowest price). 
 

If anyone has a good report/ article/ video anything beyond the public filings (I read the earnings call transcripts) to share on this company id be happy to read it. 

Especially trying to understand:
 

  • How Further Consolidation of EU airlines impacts Ryanair. So far Airfrance-KLM alliance seems not to really put a dent into Ryanair. Other low cost airlines going bust due to C19 must be a good thing for Ryanair.
  • How airline bailouts work, also why governments feel compelled to do so besides the obvious big job losses that come with airlines going bust. 
  • Airline fleets, the good the bad the ugly
  • the debt, it has a BBB rating (down from BBB+) has that been the going rate for airlines? Currently 
  • The company has this EUR 5 Billion medium-term note programme, what is this? My understanding is that they are prevented to take on 5 Billion in medium-term loans, anything to add to this? 
  • Airlines hedge their fuel cost, anything to be mindful of here? I understand Ryanair is hoping for lowish oil prices through 2021, while quite a few on RV are hoping for oil to go back to pre-covid prices. 

 

 

YoY -66% in traffic
YoY -66% in traffic