In case anyone still cares about the $100 trillion equity market-
•VIX through > 20 for the first time since 20 no longer served as support. A close > 20 (or a few) would make 20 support again, which makes low-20’s VIX at low range = SPX downside > upside
Front end VIX futures curve (2m-1m) narrows sharply in tandem
May VIX (now as opposed to 10 mins ago when screen shot above was taken) trading volume has already exceeded its 20d average full day volume within an hour of US cash open. >2k VIX May (monthly) 20 strike calls now ITM trade.
•VXN (Nasdaq 1M implied vol) gaps up and rips through 25 (the VIX 20 “equivalent/parallel“ - which is really not a good way to put it), leading Nasdaq to underperform SPX by -1% relative (-2.14% absolute on the day).
VXN Close >25 would exasperate VIX ↑ & SPX ↓ with heavyweight earnings out of the way- single constituent heavyweights & respective earnings related vol now out of picture
That said, PYPL (which is one of a very few long term long single stocks ive held/will jeep holding for years) earnings in 2 days- seems like a good opportunity for upside- they may very well once again report record revs, OP, new accounts + transaction volumes, with added boost from stimulus checks + reopening + crypto. Cant really think of anything else with combination beneficiary of both sides of: virus or reopen, consumer spending or gov stimulus, traditional payments & banking or crypto & fintech.
Also as today shows- UST yields rising ≠ sole tech stocks driver
Regarding Crypto market price action:
I am working on a separate note now, but just a few points:
(once again), watch BTCJPY (in addition to BTCUSD) - though Japan financial markets are closed, BTCJPY still very much open. ¥6 million key support, as you can see from earlier↓
As well as others (and not some arbitrary BTCUSD levels)
ETH vs BTC
Performance (%) deviation began just when Japan markets / institutional market participants left for (current ongoing) Golden Week holiday (until Thurs). ETH/BTC jump ↑at month end/start. Will get into this more in said note later, but here’s something I flagged before for Mon May 3 / to consider now:
CME Micro BTC futures launch, volumes pick up, BTC gets held back while ETH does not
And finally, robinhood down this morning while the rest (stock and crypto) platforms are fine. Absent RH, DOGE drops -10% within 20 mins, which is -$10bn in value gone. Which isn’t helping BTC