Survey results are in! Some new changes this week:
- 24/7 survey availability is now tested and all obvious bugs have been fixed
- results are always aggregated on a Sunday. The Bot keeps tweeting interim results and interesting observations
- the new interactive dashboard will be deployed this week. It's already running in a stealth mode for performance testing. Advantage of this dashboard: It's all programmed by myself, so I have full control and can update charts more frequently (the previous version had some upload limits). It also supports a clear layout and other cool features (links to descriptions, markdown syntax, embedding). I'll make some pages that describe the technicalities of the survey evaluation. So in the future, you only have one source to look stuff up. Probably will go live end of this week on www.realvisionbot.com. For the interested reader. The page is made with plotly dash and deployed to AWS via docker, which is nice because I also run most of the other Bot stuff on there.
Next steps on my to do list after the new website goes live:
- automated performance reports as pdf
- improving the Exchange portfolio logic
- adding Nasdaq to the Bot's universe...he's still not able to invest there
Macro survey page example
Crypto survey summary
Ethereum remained the most overweight asset but only by a tiny margin ahead of Bitcoin.
For a better look on what's going on in the Top 10, I created a chart of the ranking changes. You can see how the ranking of tokens changes each week. Some tokens start later, as they are either included in the survey for the first time or jump into the Top 10. Biggest losers were Polkadot and Rune. Biggest winners Uniswap (from rank 7 to rank 3) and Cardano (from 10 to 5)
What does this mean for the weights of the RV Exchange crypto portfolio of next week: Overweight in BTC and ETH is maintained and the weight in UNI and ADA increased significantly.
The Bot, given the opportunity to make his own choice based on the survey results and price based market indicators keeps his overweight in Solana. Doge has again entered his allocation (mainly based on good momentum).
Solid performance for both survey last week. The Exchange was a bit more volatile (large BTC and ETH weights). It's up ~19% since start of the survey. The Bot shows a lot less volatility, but also less performance. He's up ~7.3%
Macro survey results
1. Market View and Sentiment
Market sentiment remains overall positive except for Dollar and 10Y Treasuries (neutral)
Positions are in line with the sentiment. Increased equity positions, Dollar and 10Y Treasuries neutral. Not a lot of changes. Maybe noteworthy that volatility positions are lower again (people expect volatility to increase in the survey, but they are not willing to pay the price of being long vol all the time)
Apparently, there has been a lot of bullish talk about volatility in last week's interviews, so the Bot increases his allocation. He also has quite a Dollar position (why Bot, why). Only one of the survey portfolios can be right this week, let's wait and see...
The portfolios have nearly recovered from the Bitcoin drawdown. Commodities was the second biggest winner in both portfolios. The Exchange is up 21%, the Bot 6%. Annualized volatility of the Exchange portfolio is also roughly 20%, while the Bot stands at 16%.
If you do not want to bookmark all the links, the easiest way is to follow me on the Exchange or the Bot on Twitterso you are up to date. Or bookmark his website, where you can find all the relevant links: www.realvisionbot.com
If you are looking to do your own analysis with the numbers on the Bot's dashboard, you can download the values in each chart as a csv by clicking the little gear box that's at the top right of each chart.
Thank you for your participation! Feel free to contact me if you have any questions!
RealVisionBot & Moritz & Moritz (twoquants.com)
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