Latest survey results are in!
Crypto survey summary
Not a lot of change at the top. Ethereum still preferred to Bitcoin, Cardano made it to Top 3 again in terms of overweight votes, but it also has a large number of opponents.
Looking at ranking by %overweight minus %underweight. RUNE made the biggest move last week, while UNI and BNB were the biggest losers. New entrants in the Real Vision crypto portfolio are Solana, Atom and Litecoin.
The resulting portfolio is quite diversified this week. Note that for this naive approach I'm taking %overweight minus %underweight for each token and standardize the weights so that the portfolio is fully allocated. If you want to track the portfolio yourself, you can think about not trading the very small positions (at least that's what I personally would do) and focus on the bigger ones.
The Bot is very ETH heavy this week. He completely sold his Doge, VET and Rune holdings. Also, his heavy SOL overweight is now down to just 2.15%
Exchange portfolio performance was quite exceptional. +12.01% last week, mostly driven by outperformance of ETH but also ADA and LINK delivered good results.
EDIT: There was a mistake in the performance calculation. I forgot to standardize the Bot's weights, so while the allocation charts were right, the performance chart was wrong. Here is the updated one. Bot's performance does look decent!
Macro survey results
1. Market View and Sentiment
Nearly unchanged sentiment. Equity sentiment has worsened across all regions. Gold sentiment has nearly doubled.
Survey participants have increased their positions in Commodities, Gold, Nasdaq and Emerging market equities in line with their sentiment. For some of the assets that were included last week, the net positioning (% long - %short) is now negative or zero, hence these drop out of the allocation this week. This leads to a relatively concentrated portfolio.
I added the Nasdaq to the Bot's allocation. The main thing was to train his artificial intelligence to detect sentiment for US tech. I'm still working on some refinements, but he's now fairly good at detecting tech sentiment so that the asset class could be included. It immediately got quite a large allocation.
Both portfolios have now recovered from their recent drawdown. The whole performance curve shifted down a bit, since I had to switch the Commodity ETF because yahoo delivered strange price. I rather have consistent prices and a little bit worse historical performance (roughly 1.5% worse in total)
If you do not want to bookmark all the links, the easiest way is to follow me on the Exchange or the Bot on Twitterso you are up to date. Or bookmark his website, where you can find all the relevant links: www.realvisionbot.com
If you are looking to do your own analysis with the numbers on the Bot's dashboard, you can download the values in each chart as a csv by clicking the little gear box that's at the top right of each chart.
Thank you for your participation! Feel free to contact me if you have any questions!
RealVisionBot & Moritz & Moritz (twoquants.com)
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