Here are last week's @Real Vision Exchange survey results with a little bit of a delay. As you might have noticed, markets were a little bit busy today. Another thing that came up yesterday and kept me a little bit busy was the recap of the Exchange Portfolio's performance WITHOUT Bitcoin.
So I'll start with some useful links here:
- @Christopher Moir summarizes my post on the Echanges - BTC portfolio here
- @Weston Nakamura put my comment into a separate post, where I show why even without Bitcoin the diversification benefit of the Exchange portfolio still exists
So, long story short: The Exchange portfolio is useful even without Bitcoin.
That's why your participation in the weekly Exchange survey is so valuable. By the way, if you are looking to do your own analysis with the numbers on the Bot's dashboard, you can download the values in each chart as a csv by clicking the little gear box that's at the top right of each chart.
- Very positive outlook for Bitcoin and Gold on the short term (1m) but especially on the longer term (3m) horizon. Both the short term as longer term outlook on Equities has turned positive this week. Outlook for EM Equities is now very bullish.
- Participants are increasingly sceptical about Dollar performance, while the Euro is expected to appreciate.
- Treasury Bond yields are on aggregate expected to stay flat, but views are mixed. US Equity market volatility is expected to increase despite the positive outlook on the S&P 500
- The Real Vision Exchange Portfolio decreased its Bitcoin and Gold weight and increased exposure to Equities today. The Bot on the other hand has increased his Bitcoin allocation and also massively increased Equity exposire, so at least in that regard the two portfolios agree. However, the Exchange's Exposure to Bonds and European Equities is still larger than the Bot's. Portfolio performance has been very similar YTD, the Exchange is up ~6.5% and the Bot ~5.3%. The slight difference comes from the Exchange's larger allocation to Bitcoin. We'll see how this will develop given the fact that the Bot for once showed (good?) timing and bought the Bitcoin dip today (orders are assumed to be executed at close)
1. Market outlook and sentiment
Participants show a very positive outlook for Bitcoin and Gold on the short term (1m) but especially on the longer term (3m) horizon. Both the short term as longer term outlook on Equities has turned positive this week. Outlook for EM Equities is still strong. Participants are increasingly sceptical about Dollar performance, while the Euro is expected to appreciate. On aggregate Treasury Bond yields are more or less expected to stay flat, but views are quite mixed. US Equity market volatility is expected to increase despite the positive outlook on the S&P 500.
2. Positioning and Hive mind portfolio
Gold, Bond, Euro and Equity exposure has been increased for the Exchange. The Bot increases his Bitcoin and Equity exposure.
Trust has been in a strong downtrend since End of December while also Fear has been rising again.
Thank you for your participation! Feel free to contact me if you have any questions!
RealVisionBot & Moritz & Moritz (twoquants.com)