I'm late with the review of last week's survey and this week's allocation. However, I have good reasons. I finished the first version of the new Real Vision Bot Website: www.realvisionbot.com
It's still lacking the charts for the Crypto survey, but now everything is in one place. The big benefit: I manage the complete process/pipeline and the website is highly automated in the backend on AWS. More time for building features and bringing new charts instead of dealing with broken dashboards or quota limits.
As you can see, it has four navigation points:
- About: Here you can find the latest news, links to the surveys and the contact form as well as the possibility to donate to the Bot to keep the lights on. Just kidding, I will finance the little buddy anyway. Any crypto that is donated goes into his portfolio.
- Interview Sentiment: all charts that show the results of the sentiment extraction via NLP from the interviews. Currently features the latest sentiment towards the most important topics as well as emotions
- Macro Survey: charts and description of the macro survey. Updated weekly
- Crypto Survey: yet to come, results from the crypto survey. Updated weekly, some charts potentially daily
- Portfolios: allocation and performance of the Exchange and Bot portfolios (Macro and Crypto). Macro is already deployed, Crypto yet to come
The website is also more mobile friendly. I'm still fixing a lot of charts for better visibility and color coding (especially crypto), but it's a big step forward. Everything coded in Python and running on AWS, where I can now leverage my existing databases.
So, let's keep this weekly summary brief since you are surely all eyeing the crypto markets:
Crypto survey summary
Ethereum is still in the lead and could even extend the lead. Aaave lost its place to Solana. In the mid-field, Dogecoin made an interesting move and is now more overweight than underweight. Hence, after consulting the crypto index committee (Raoul, Moritz S. and the Bot), I decided to keep it in the survey.
Looking at ranking by %overweight minus %underweight. Aave was the biggest loser. Cardano gained two points in the ranking compared to last Saturday.
The resulting portfolio is around 9% more allocated to ETH, but also BTC exposure increased relative to the other assets. RUNE lost some weight and DOGE basically replaced DOT, because DOT is a tie between over and underweight...very sad, because DOT actually did very well in the current drawdown.
The Bot is still super long ETH and increased its weight in Solana. Also ADA made it back into his portfolio. DOGE is there as well...
Recent portfolio performance was bad, but by far not as bad as Bitcoin's performance. Actually, ADA, DOT, ETH, and RUNE helped a lot to mitigate the impact. Adding these slightly less correlated tokens even lead to a quick surge in performance last week. Both portfolios are still up since the start of the survey: Exchange + 13.5% and Bot + 10.9%.
Macro survey results
1. Market View and Sentiment
New look for the Sentiment chart
Main differences: S&P sentiment is now slightly bearish (from near neutral last week). Nasdaq neutral, only EM equities remains bullish. Commodities and Vol are more bullish.
Increase in long S&P (despite worse sentiment). Reduction of Nasdaq. Significant increase in EM and Vol longs. Bitcoin longs have increased as well (buying the dip?) and Gold long positions have decreased.
Making room for Vol and a little bit of more Dollar exposure scales the weights down a bit despite an actual increase in long positions for some of these markets (e.g. BTC)
The Bot is overweight Volatility once more, but he still likes Tech and Bitcoin. Overall changes are not very large in his allocation.
Of course, the Bitcoin drawdown is visible in the Macro portfolios as well. YTD both are now underperforming the S&P. The Exchange only by a few percent, but the Bot is nearly flat right now.
Gold and Commodities paid off so far this month, but Bitcoin performance is dragging it down. However, it comforts me to see that on a monthly level, the Exchange portfolio also suffers from the drag in volatility (e.g. in March). It's just super costly to be long these VIX ETFs, something the Bot knows just too well ...
Thank you for your participation! Feel free to contact me if you have any questions!
RealVisionBot & Moritz & Moritz (twoquants.com)
@Jeremiah S @Weston Nakamura @Matthew Lansing @Bradley Snyder @Matt Daniell @Sam Colt @Jaymes Rosenthal @Craig P @John Ahearn @John Crockett @John Fadool @Sebastian Moonjava @Seth Dingle @Xavier Mejido