While financial markets still have to process last week's action, the Real Vision Bot has done his job evaluating last week's Exchange survey. He even found time for a special question: which of the famous wallstreetbets stocks do the Exchange members have in their portfolio? Turns out that participants either stayed rational and did not get involved at all or at least closed out their positions (or were forced out). As the survey was open from Wednesday to Saturday morning, all of these could be possible.
If you are looking to do your own analysis with the numbers on the Bot's dashboard, you can download the values in each chart as a csv by clicking the little gear box that's at the top right of each chart.
1. Special Topic wsb stocks: 4.3% of respondents were long $GME while 8.7% were short. 13% of respondents had a long position in $NOK, 8.7% in $BB and $AMC. So overall not a tremendous adoption of the wsb favorites but still interesting to see that the most hyped among those stocks (GME) was net short among those who had a position.
2. Sentiment: Click here to see the 1 month vs 3 month comparison
Trouble in equities ahead on 1m and 3m horiz (bearish all equities, short term extremely bullish VIX). Comeback of the US$ on both horizons. Gold had a comeback while Bitcoin sentiment stayed slightly bullish. Both are strongly bullish on the 3m horizon (Gold even more than Bitcoin!).
1m vs 3m sentiment in the survey (not included on the dashboard but a very interesting chart in general)
One of the first real rotations in the portfolio that does not only touch Bitcoin/Gold/Equities. Very strong move into Treasuries, derisking in all Equities but risk seeking in Bitcoin and the Dollar (in line with sentiment). We haven't had this kind of (partly) risk-off play EVER. I'm super curious how this will play out
Relative positioning as reflected in the Real Vision Exchange long only portfolio
The Bot on the other hand rides on a wave of positive S&P sentiment that's still prevalent in the interviews. But he also picked up that trouble is brewing (increase in VIX and Gold). Remember that he scans all the interviews of the week, so there might have been a few very bullish cases for US markets on a different time horizon that he picked up. However nice to see that he got the Volatility vibe right. Thankfully he also closed his overweight in the EURUSD. I don't think that he should have that asset anyway. Very difficult for him to get an investable view on that.
Similar dynamics for Bot and Exchange due to their positioning in Bitcoin last week. Some bad choices by the Bot (extreme Euro bet) cost him. Exchange is ahead with ~8% vs bot ~3% this year.
I did tweet some of them via the Bot last week. We saw a rise in fear in the RealVision interviews (has come down a bit on Friday, but that seems to be more an outlier)
Anger is spiking too
Thank you for your participation! Feel free to contact me if you have any questions!
RealVisionBot & Moritz & Moritz (twoquants.com)