Elon bought some Bitcoin. No big thing right? Except that the Exchange Hive mind portfolio is currently long 27.7% Bitcoin, based on last week's survey...this is going to be an interesting week!
Otherwise, for first readers: This is the weekly summary of last week's Real Vision Exchange sentiment survey, which is open from Wednesday until Saturday each week and asks participants about their expectation of market performance over the next 1 month and 3 months.
You find the weekly survey here (it's currently closed).
There is also the Real Vision Bot. Our little AI that scrapes all the interviews on Real Vision, analyzes the sentiment and emotions in those and constructs his own portfolio from it. He competes against the Exchange in the Bot vs. Exchange Portfolio challenge and constructs all the lovely charts you find below. They are also on his dashboard, where some of the charts are updated even daily.
If you do not want to bookmark all the links, the easiest way is to follow me on the Exchange or the Bot on Twitter so you are up to date. Or bookmark his website, where you can find all the relevant links: www.realvisionbot.com
If you are looking to do your own analysis with the numbers on the Bot's dashboard, you can download the values in each chart as a csv by clicking the little gear box that's at the top right of each chart.
1. Market View and Sentiment: Click here to see the 1 month vs 3 month comparison
After last week's first real de-risking of the portfolio, the participants opted for a quick turnaround. Except for the Euro and Gold, every is bullish on the 1 month horizon. Bitcoin is back, Equities are looking good (except maybe Europe, but maybe no surprise given the delay in vaccinations here).
So everything looks perfect ... right?
Not so fast. The 3m horizon is a bit less rosy. Sentiment has improved slightly from last week, but I would say it's still a bearish scenario. Emerging market equities is doing ok, so is Bitcoin and to a smaller extend Gold.
Similar to the more bullish Equity sentiment, we see an increase in long Equity positions. In the previous week Exchange members didn't scale back their exposure as much as one would have expected from their sentiment, but now they are definitely more in line. Especially S&P500 and EM Equities positions have been increased and Bond exposure decreased.
Relative positioning as reflected in the Real Vision Exchange long only portfolio
The Bot has one of his strange moments again. Still bullish Equities, but also Bonds and Volatility. His volatility bet cost him nearly all his good performance from Bitcoin and Equities last week.
I assume there is a lot of talk about the reflation trade, market risk and Bitcoin + currencies in the interviews lately. That's why he overweights these assets.
The Bot did a good call being long Equities last week, but lost on Vol. The Exchange on the other hand did better. They reduced S&P exposure last week, where they lost out on some performance, but they made it back with Bitcoin and their remaining EM and EU Equities.
Fear dropped at the beginning of the week (everything went better than expected) but it's rising again now while VIX is receding
Overall, negative emotions are making a comeback recently
While positive emotions are slowly receding (but still above 100, so net we are still in positive territory!)
4. Old new stuff
I also like to look at the individual interviews related to certain topics and their sentiment. For example bullish/bearishness in the EUR/USD. Actually quite a good timing for some of the bearish calls.
Also European Equities shows some nice moves. For the Bot I currently aggregate the interviews weekly. Observing them daily makes for a much better performance actually, but well ...
Thank you for your participation! Feel free to contact me if you have any questions!
RealVisionBot & Moritz & Moritz (twoquants.com)