While ICE is in an upward trend, it might make sense to hedge for potential fallout from trading losses due to the spike in energy prices

"After the market closed Friday, stunned traders scrambled to work out how much additional funds they would need to set aside for the following week. Some trading houses were extremely nervous. An executive at one said he was worried that some counterparties could go bust and leave his firm with positions to fill on the spot market."


Energy Only Revenues to ERCOT Generators in 2021 YTD exceed all revenues 2018-2020 combined. So who's paying for that? In addition, this also concerns Natural Gas as well
Maybe some counterparties will get into trouble...

And yes, ICE has a large clearinghouse and owns multiple exchanges. Still, remember the trader that blew a €100m hole in Nasdaq nordic power market. Ok, the guy was clearing his own trades, so that might not have happened with clearing houses in between.


Anyway, OOM puts are still cheap. 1 month 5% OTM skew is only +2.5 vol for puts over calls (IV 26.6 vs 24.1). So I will consider getting into 19 March expiry, Strike 105. Alternatively buy 105-100 Put spread for March at 40 cents premium, 5 max payout (buy the 105 strike at 28.5 vols, sell the 100 strike at 32.2 vols). The put spread seems pretty stable at costing 40cents a month historically.

As always, this is only a trade idea, no investment adivce. You have to do your own research before implementing any trade.