hahaha the bloopers!

I think the best nugget I took away was the sentence at ~13:40 "im literally losing money so I mine as well take risk" im serious this is the type of speak I understand lol

thanks @Nick Correa and @Jack Farley 

Here is the problem I have seeing real rates going up.  I don't see the scenario where it is allowed to happen.

1. Teddy thinks that real rates are going up.  If they do, at some point they are going to cause stocks to sell-off.  See 2017 and QT.  Result: Fed jumps in with yield curve control, nominals get floored near-zero or else the Fed has to buy bills and sell bonds to keep the curve shape from becoming completely distorted.  At any rate, duration means nothing under yield curve control, and bonds become favored over bills.  Real rates go down.
2. If stocks sell-off because of some event, the market runs and hides in bonds, and the market drives bonds to zero.  The money has to go somewhere, and that somewhere is usually US Treasuries.  Real rates go down.
3. If the Fed does nothing, stocks panic as the punch bowl is taken away, and scenario 2 happens anyway.  The Fed is just not willing to let assets go down.
4. If Fiscal runs inflation hot, the Fed accommodates with QE or else bonds go up and American debt crushes public spending as more tax revenue does to service the debt, which shrinks GDP and causes panic.  Fed steps in and does #1.

I don't see how inflation can be created without fiscal cooperation, and I don't see how the Fed doesn't support Fiscal to try to control inflation from getting out of hand to prevent a disorderly currency collapse and cause a worldwide panic.

They want to run inflation hot, but to do so, they need the spread between breakevens and nominal to increase in an orderly fashion.  This is negative real yields without going negative nominal yields.  But without fiscal help, they can't do it on their own.

Nominal yields going up doesn't help the Fed achieve their goals.  And if Congress doesn't do their part, the bond market is going to do their job for them and take bond nominals negative to avoid the cascade failure of insolvency defaults that rising real yields will cause to anyone stuck in the wrong equities.

Not sure what I have wrong, but the one thing it seems that the Fed HAS to prevent is nominal yields from going up absent confirmed and massive inflation.  

I think he puts too much weight into the reflation flows as if the market is actually getting the inflation call right.  The market is just front running Congress IMO, which to this point doesn't seem as likely to go wild with the fiscal spending now that the election is over.  

McConnell has no motivation to help Joe Biden prevent a market crash but politically has every reason in the world to want to ensure he takes the blame for the market just like he did during the first term of Obama.  Even if they agree on the full $980 billion, it is less help than what was offered in March, and less help going to those who need it.  As each round of fiscal does less dollar for dollar as M2 velocity continues to trend down, and this $980 billion will be a net reduction in fiscal support, which is disinflationary to deflationary.  The crisis that would trigger would then force action, but the result would be lower real rates, not higher.

My thoughts as of now, YMMV.

Well, I still love the girl from Bennington...