4 areas of focus hit headlines at once. I decided to just make separate video clips for each topic, so a 3 min into + 4 videos following.
These were supposed to go out yesterday. Turns out that writing everything out would’ve been more timely after all. Oh well- still experimenting here. Let me know any feedback please, thanks as always!
III. Monex: the BTC driver
I. Intro (3min) & NOTE: global markets are WITHOUT Japan flows for the next 7 days of holiday (USTs, NDX, BTC, EM FX could see direct impact absent one of largest players)
II. BOJ April Policy Meeting Review: Was NOT a non-event
III. 8968 MONEX Group Earnings were released Mon after close, this was supposed to go out before Japan market open this morning- apologies. but video still applies of course
Previous Note: Theory: Monex has become more BTC than GBTC, and even more than BTC itself (theory explained)
(see more charts below)
IV. UBS - “surprise!” -$774mn loss on Archegos to join the club. Why their temporary silence is deafening
V. Nomura (uploading)
Additional Charts & material:
BTC vs JAPAN Cash Equity Trading
GBTC premium & discount vs GBTC/Monex Ratio:
BOJ BTC MONEX charts:
Intraday Charts from Mon 4/26, w/ BOJ policy release during lunch break (11:30am -12:30pm) & Monex earnings few mins after market close (15:00)
BTC vs MONEX Price Action - which leads which? (Monex leads)
When Monex is open for trading, BTC snaps in line.
Monex‘s massively positive FY’20 earnings (EBITA +500% YoY largely due to crypto growth), released right at market close (15:00), right when BTC begins rallying and on day’s highs in volume.
Monex earnings were taken positive +5% at next day‘s open. IF BTC is being “dog tail wagged“ by Monex, is the BTC aftermarket rally reflecting the Monex earnings in real time? (In other words - is BTC becoming an accidental proxy for Monex instead of the other way around? see chart above & below. @John Ahearn
Notable slides from Monex IR earnings material: (full PDF here)
Nomura IR Materials: entire global earnings growth efforts wiped out from 1 client on 3 trades positioned long at market highs
Monex vs BTC volatility