For those like me that don't know the first thing about Uranium except maybe that ze Germans don't want it anymore, the French love it and the Iranians would be more than happy to use it and everyone hates them for it
Here is a usefull primer:
Uranium Primer BofA
Uranium Primer BofA
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In The Exchange you can ask and answer questions and share your experience with others!
Mike Alkin and Adam Rodman have some great videos on RV - with deep dive info on supply / demand, cost of production, and striking of new long-term contracts with utilities.
Also, here is a pretty good blog post; When not If – TraderFerg
Agree, see the above as extra material to those interviews.
Thanks for posting Sam.
Thanks for sharing @Sam Colt .
As far as I understand, I believe a lot of the fundamentals that warrant a boom in the industry have been in place for a while. However is hasn't come yet. To what extent is this industry in need of a catalyst and what that catalyst could be?
From what I gather, Legislation is a pretty big factor for uranium supply/demand.
I operated a nuclear plant and have been interested in uranium as an investment for some time. One challenge I see is that the industry is unusually predictable. Plant refuellings are planned years in advance, contracts extend for decades, and there's remarkably low volatility. It's a rather boring industry.
Uranium was very promising until everything changed with the Fukushima disaster. I had just finished my nuclear supervisor training in upstate NY when Fukushima melted down. Immediately public opinion shifted wildly against nuclear power. While Fukushima had some design flaws and operator errors, I can't fault them for their heroic efforts in one of the worst natural disasters in history. It's impossible to engineer out risk.
The industry was hurt by Germany abruptly decommissioning their reactors and shifting to coal (unwisely in my opinion). The rare bright spot in the industry is increasing demand from China, who is building nuclear plants by the dozen. I am sure there is money to be made investing in uranium, but I have not yet identified a compelling investment. That said, if you find one please share it in the exchange.
ots Wow nice.
I got a question for you;
Do you know how the nuclear waste management contracts work?
I understand it takes decades to "go away" so fair to assume the waste managers get paid for decades?
For example even after Germany decommissioned all their nuclear waste, the waste management co still needs to get paid somehow for their service I guess?
Also any idea how long it takes to clean one of these plants? Is this done under 6months or is this very lengthy process?
As for investments: in the UK Augean (LSE: AUG) is the only company with a permit to clean decommissioned Nuclear plants 🤷♂️
worth looking into what the current valuation of the company is and if its something you are willing to pay for.
Each country handles nuclear waste differently, some better than others. France recycles their spent fuel by removing the radioactive elements for medical isotopes and reprocessing the unburnt fuel. As a result, their cumulative waste is extremely small -- enough to fit in a single truck.
The US banned recycling of nuclear waste in the 1970s, forcing nuclear operators to handle their own waste. When fuel is removed from the reactor it is very hot, several hundred degrees due to the short halflife isotopes. The waste is cooled in pools for about a year. Once it is cool enough, the waste is packed in impermeable steel and concrete containers and basically left lying around the site.
I don't know specifically how Germany handles their waste. I was in charge, I would sell it to France.
As far as cleaning these plants are you talking about cleaning during operation or decommissioning? While operating, plants have scheduled shutdowns in which they refuel and perform all cleaning, maintenance and upgrades. For decommissioning, they usually start with the most radioactive elements and work backwards to the low grade rad waste. This is usually just buried in a special landfill. Completely decommissioning a reactor site takes a decade or so.
I'll take a look at Augean. Thanks for bringing it up.
You say you would sell to France because the repurpose it right? because I imagined in general you would have to pay someone to take care of your trash.
Yes it's an asset to the French but a liability to the Americans. One of many reasons why US nuclear policy is self-defeating.
please expand on it being a liability for the US? Like they don't up-cycle the nuclear waste like France does?
Exactly, the US made it illegal to recycle spent nuclear fuel in the 1970s. US nuclear plants store their spent fuel on-site in pools then dry casks indefinitely, rather than recycling it. It creates a tremendous extra expense for the operator. Imagine if trash collectors were illegal and you had to bury all of your trash in the backyard. It would be a nightmare.
Most civilian nuclear plants use low enriched uranium - about 5% Uranium-235 (which fissions) and 95% Uranium-238 (which doesn't fission). After about 2 years powering a reactor, that same fuel becomes (approximately) 3% Uranium-235, 94% Uranium-238, 1% Plutonium, and 2% radioactive isotopes.
The radioactive isotopes are highly useful in medical radiology and other scientific research. The uranium can be reprocessed into new fuel. And the plutonium ... well that's why the US banned civilian reprocessing.
The truth is that nuclear "waste" as we think of it doesn't exist. Spent fuel is full of useful elements that can be recycled. But political concerns got in the way of scientific development and economic common sense.
Thanks for the Great insights that primer doesn't cover!