Two Tweets related to what our little monkey brain thinks the market will do and what the market actually did.
When your Brain going full apocalypse but the market isn't, write it down.
When your Brain going full apocalypse but the market isn't, write it down.
Where am I?
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I think knowing the news and knowing the market does provide some insight. To that end, I see the divergence of market (and especially VIX) to the news further supports that the market is being "manipulated." By that I mean that it's not translating in a meaningful way the underlying potential for profit in the price. The market was never pure price reflection, but there is no way to currently value a company related to its underlying business. Derivatives, gamma hedging, passive investing effects, etc, etc, etc are making it impossible to accurately value a stock.
If the price of a banana at your local grocery store increases that should tell you that something caused the price of producing and shipping the banana increased. You may not know the specific reason, but could suss it out. I don't believe that can be done anymore.
Which leads to BTC. Without any other use for BTC other than store of value, and still very few derivatives, I think its price most purely reflects supply/demand.
Interested to see what others think...
I’ve been contemplating this morning trying to add some kind of long vol or equity hedge and I log into my broker and see S&P up big, VIX down big, yields higher, and then I remember MOST of the time price is truth. Who am I to call a top?
Is that a sign of a bubble?