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Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

Delta Hedging Tokyo 2020 Olympics Video: Opening Ceremony Eve w/ Ash Bennington

https://vimeo.com/578392570/8265be80b0

Following up on my written post last week “Delta” Hedging 2020 Tokyo Olympics   @Ash Bennington joins me on the eve of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics Opening Ceremony tomorrow (Friday, July 23 2021), for one last overview of the serious (and seriously overlooked) situation on the ground, before we (as a global community) dive into the first real test of where we really are with this pandemic since inception.  

Filmed + footage from what should be a vibrant, bustling summer night of excitement in the Tokyo Station area - the heart of the world’s largest metropolitan region by population and GDP. This is the eerie calm before the storm.   


Latest Updated Facts & Figures:

•1,979 - latest Tokyo COVID daily cases (6m high)

91 - latest COVID positive cases among “Games-concerned personnel“

•Tokyo2020 now most expensive in history

Original revenue expectations: 
•¥1.52bn = ¥152k avg expected tourist spending x 1 million tourists 

•¥90bn = 630,000 ticket sales

•Large OLED TV sales +50% YoY (no spectators = TV sales ↑)

 

Week-of firings:
•Director of Opening Ceremony fired on Opening Ceremony eve- Holocaust jokes

•Opening Ceremony music conductor resigns on accusations of past bullying & abuse of the disabled

+Feb: Tokyo2020 President & former Japan PM Mori fired- sexist remarks.  +March: Creative Director fired- sexist remarks

 

•"Delta" Hedging 2020 Tokyo Olympics (Original Written)

•Japan: The World’s Biggest COVID Failure

Christopher Moir
Maker of random charts that seem important 2 years later

China (the rock) - Hong Kong - US (the hard place.)

I made a previous post on the subject here ->

https://exchange.realvision.com/post/hong-kong---will-kyle-bass-get-another-shot-60d9e37f43c4ab826c2c1c16

In a few scattered posts and comments, I have mentioned China slowing and what could anecdotally be their internal inflation issues.

https://www.grant-williams.com/podcast/the-end-game-ep-16-russell-clark/

Russell had some amazing insights during a recent podcast with Grant Williams where he discussed the control of inflation. Here in the west when we think inflation we think of CBs controlling interest rates. His position is that governments end up controlling inflation where they can to take the heat out of the inflation they cannot control.

Was the clampdown on BTC mining linked to a clear sign of inflation or capital controls or a first strike before the rollout of DCEP?

Was the communication that China would sell some of its copper reserves to curb inflation?

Chinas credit impulse has slowed and Manufacturing and Services PMIs are falling.

China is "a rock" in this equation.

Now let us discuss " and a hard place" between which Hong Kong finds itself.

On pg3 of the linked file prepared by Kyle Bass and Hayman Capital they describe the huge growth in Hong Kong "The golden years" this came on two opposing forces. China had a huge expansionary boom, double-digit GDP growth which led to massive credit expansion. At the same time through the USD-HKD currency board (pg10) they were importing "emergency" interest rate levels from the US. This meant HK could borrow at historic low levels and lend into an economy with the highest growth seen post-WWII.

Here... (More)

At least things in Taiwan isn't getting worse

Some updates

  1. The covid situation isn't getting better, but also isn't getting worse, the moving average is toping out around 300~400 cases per day so far, so we're not looking at total shutdown hopefully, though today one of the electronic factory seem to have an outbreak among the SE Asia workers.
  2. Mercifully, it started raining pretty well this week, our local dam was down below 8% before the rain started, looks like we'll get past 20% after the weekend. Which is still pretty bad but at least it's no longer at imminent danger zone, and the Typhoon season is starting as well.
  3. There's a lot of weirdness with the vaccine situation in Taiwan, it seems that the government want to really just delay / stop all vaccine import (by blaming Beijing) until the local made once come online in a few months, it's getting a bit too blatantly obvious that even their supporters can't get on board with that given the dire demand, so we're finally getting some from Japan today. This has also resulted in some real weirdness in the stocks locally as well, as the producer of that local vaccine has went limit down for 5 days straight, and perhaps most bizarrely, the President and ruling party made press conference to address that specific stock ...
  4. The rain has helped one of the other big problem a few weeks back as well which was power outages, as it lower the demand for AC obviously, and also bring a... (More)
Sam ColtExChangemaker
"So called Business Engineer"

JPM Deck on china

Here is a deck with lots of data on China: 
 

 

 

 

here its interesting to see how different MSCI China is from the S&P 500
here its interesting to see how different MSCI China is from the S&P 500

 

For the Bond people 
For the Bond people