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Bear Market
Bear Market
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Tracking Income and Trading The Stimulus

Hey RV Exchange!

Myself and @Aahan Menon did another video where we broke down personal income, identified how the stimulus has been impacting it and how to think about trading the stimulus as we move forward. 

There were some incredibly helpful clarifications in regards to how much impact the stimulus checks are actually having and how they are being used. Fundamentally, we are tracking the flow of capital in order to identify how the market is positioned and the possible scenarios in the future. 

#doyouevenresearchbro

Find @Aahan Menon research here: https://prometheusresearch.substack.com/p/impacts-of-fiscal-policy 

https://youtu.be/NLZclCk6NAU

 

@Jaymes Rosenthal @Sam Colt @Moritz Heiden @Matt Daniell @Kazu Williams @Weston Nakamura @John Ahearn @Bradley Snyder @Craig P 

Shout out to @John Fadool in the video. 

Sam ColtExChangemaker
"So called Business Engineer"

For all you 🐻's on here. Have a look at how "The Armagedonnists" can cost you.

A fun "what if" analysis based on listening + acting on the words of media's favourite 🐻's: 

Micheal Cambalest 2019
Micheal Cambalest 2019

 

I find it good stuff to reflect on. Because the doom stories are mostly very convincing and loss aversion is very real, especially the older one gets (less time to make up the gains). 

This analysis is just an exercise and does not reflect reality (except four Nouriel Roubini who really is a Perma Bear) since if you would have invested in the funds of some of these guys you probably would have done better than this graph lets you believe. Also, these guys change their minds & this isn't reflected in the graph. 

 

From part 2: revisited to include the covid crash. 
From part 2: revisited to include the covid crash. 

 

you can read the whole piece here:

Part 1, 2019: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists.pdf

Part 2, includes covid Nov 2020: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-armageddonists-revisited.pdf

 

As the pinch of salt I would include this reflection from Jeremy Grantham in "Waiting for the last dance": 
 

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/


 

Anybody want to guess the market theme song for this quarter?

I'm going to go with WIPE OUT!!!!!

Sam ColtExChangemaker
"So called Business Engineer"

When your Brain going full apocalypse but the market isn't, write it down.

Two Tweets related to what our little monkey brain thinks the market will do and what the market actually did.