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BTC thoughts

1 Log chart only for this asset class. Weekly chart is king. 4 hour is what traders are using.

2 Lower bound of trend channel from the 2017-18 run up ended up being the resistance needed to stop the recent leg up. The uppper side of that same trend channel hits 310k in late September... wide range of possibilities here.

3 the ~460% rise from the potential first leg when applied to this leg takes up to the upper bound of the current channel potentially at near 330k around late November fucking crazy awesome and symmetric. The attitude of BTC right now seems to be enjoying the game and being confounding volatile and obvious all at once. It's a great show to watch. Right now it is picking the sheeps' wool from its teeth after a generous meal.

4 The steepness of the escape velocity right now is absurd. On the 4hour (traders' chart) we are in the early stages of a leg 5 set to break the upper bound of the trading range after springing up last week. On chain metrics are sick (good) as well.

5 ADA chart is still the best of the investible group. To quote a favorite band, "Leave it all up in the air, Ada." -The National

Macro has changes for the entire class (not just BTC) as this point as everyone who is going to get it has gotten the fact the we need something new to pull the American Economy up by... (More)

[Update] GBTC discount is still showing signs of bottoming, IMO worth keeping an eye on.

This is a quick update to the idea expressed here:

https://exchange.realvision.com/post/i-think-downward-pressure-from-the-gbtc-carry-trade-is-past-us-i-think-what--60df3ff54a773c26b934b5fa

Right now, I don't know what exactly is the cause for the sudden turn in Bitcoin, and I already am happy with my exposure so I am not doing anything right now.

We have so much noise with Tether currently that I am not sure anyone can be sure of being right. What I do know is that GBTC is slightly removed from potential Tether "buck breaking" since no one who is trading it will be trying to get into or out of Tether to do so. Doesn't mean they won't get washed out if Tether does what the FUD pushers believe will happen, but anyone buying it we can be reasonably sure isn't doing so to escape Tether.

Thus, I am keeping a close eye on the discount levels to see how it is behaving relative to the value of its bitcoin holdings. And the discount right now as of this writing is still showing signs of turning around.

I am tracking the 14 day SMA right now, and even on that last dip prior to this weekend's price action, we didn't see the discount get back to the lowest point that it was in May. So momentum-wise, it looks like GBTC is closing the relative value gap with Bitcoin.

What does that mean? My guess is that some of this price action we are seeing at least is encouraging more people to participate on the long side.... (More)

Weston NakamuraVisionary
Real Vision Exchange Manager, Programming and Community Engagement

BTC +12% surge?!? What’s the big news??

Oh.. just a BTCJPY ¥4mn technical level… thats it..  

A psychological / real, round figure technical level an hour into Japan Monday cash open with indices +1.8% out the gate following a 2 day market holiday (Japan closed last Thurs + Fri). And during the most illiquid hour of the week- EU asleep, Sun night US, and HK/China a half hour from cash open (take a look at HK: New Oriental Education & Scholar Education Group -35%, -40%, on ever more of gov crackdowns - this is where the Asia focus was).

Not saying “therefore price action will be ___,” just pointing out to not over-analyze this particular move.

Japan retail already trying to short this move. And no this wasn’t off Amazon allowing BTC payments headline from like 10 hours prior. Just plain old >¥4mn

Next test ↓ 

If you want to go long, you have plenty of upside after BTCJPY breaks ¥4.5mn and “confirms” a new range vs chasing moves like this only to have them slam into resistance and keep you in the red for days/weeks +

Sorry- they don’t call me No News Nakamura for nothing (nobody calls me that)