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Moritz HeidenExpert: Quant Finance
Head of Quant Research MunichRe Investment Partners and one of the @twoquants

Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 15/2021: Results

Welcome to the weekly results of the Real Vision Exchange Macro survey. You might wonder, why "Macro survey"? Well, on the weekend I launched a separate survey, the Real Vision Crypto Survey. You can find additional information here. If you like it, please participate. I already got a lot of suggestions for additional coins to include and will screen these over the next few days. The tracking portfolio will start today.

With all the surveys, the realvisionbot.com website will get an update soon to make it easier to find surveys/outputs.

So, what happened in the macro survey last week?

Last week's performance summary

Initially strong performance by Equities and Gold. Bitcoin performance was negative until the middle of the week. The recovery only came on the weekend. Commodities could make back some of its initial losses on Wednesday. Long VIX also cost some money. Overall weekly performance was slightly negative until Friday, then the portfolio bounced back due to Bitcoin.

Survey results

GO TO THE DASHBOARD FOR INTERACTIVE CHARTS

1. Market View and Sentiment

Bullish US equities. Europe and EM are mixed. Negative sentiment for Gold and the Dollar. Commodities bullishness increased.

US Equity sentiment is at its highest point since we started the survey. In contrast to the interviews, where it's approaching a new low.

2. Positioning

Interestingly, bullishness in US equities is not aligned with positioning. We have seen this in the past, positioning changes much slower than sentiment. Compared to last week, we see a slightly... (More)

The Macro Cafe. Episode #9

An updated overall technical view of the major asset classes Bitcoin, Oil, Gold, Sp500, Yields, Dollar Index, Asset Rotations .

https://youtu.be/v60rLDyKvvw


 

Moritz HeidenExpert: Quant Finance
Head of Quant Research MunichRe Investment Partners and one of the @twoquants

Real Vision Exchange Survey Week 15/2021

First of all: apologies for this week's delay in survey results and survey link. A lot of people already participated (the link always stays the same), so no worries, there will be results.

CLICK HERE TO GO TO THE SURVEY

I also didn't post a weekly summary, as @Weston Nakamura and I recorded a quarterly portfolio review yesterday. We'll try to do this regularly to give you insights into our takeaways and observations from the survey. Overall, it has been a fantastic quarter for the Exchange portfolio, we dodged some major drawdowns (Treasuries) and did well on quite a few assets.

You can find the latest survey results on the dashboard.

Overall, expectations for some markets are still very mixed. Some bulls in there but also a lot of participants that expect just flat behavior (especially for DXY and Gold). Even for Bitcoin, the picture is relatively diverse, but overall still bullish.

Positioning shows a similar picture. People are reducing their positions. This is not yet reflected in the Exchange portfolio, as still assume the allocation to be fully invested. Note that I'll change the logic within the next few days to allow for the portfolio to reflect this "no position" view and go into cash. Nasdaq has joined the ranks of investable assets (purple bar in the second pic below). Immediately, allocation jumped to 7%, which shows that the asset was well received by participants.

The Exchange portfolio is a little bit wobbly in the last few days, mainly... (More)

John Crockett
Independent Global Macro Investor

TLT & Treasury Futures Prices Climbing Again - Fed Stealth YCC Underway?

Crescat Capital out there talking about the Fed buying more bonds and recommending investors start piling into precious miners and gold stocks in their March letter.

One thing that caught my eye is their highlighting of the fact that the Fed has been buying well more than their targeted $120 billion/month of Treasurys and MBS since February, which in their opinion is a form of 'stealth' YCC. From the article:

"QE Re-accelerating

US 10-year yields have increased by 70 basis points in the last two months and the Fed had to engage in its largest buying spree of US debt since June 2020. For the sixth week straight, the Fed exceeded its minimum QE program amount of 120 billion, which consists of $80 billion of Treasuries plus $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Keep in mind that 90% of all Treasury purchases were longer duration Treasuries, mainly 5 to 7-year maturities. In other words, a non-trumpeted attempt at yield curve control (YCC) has already been underway. However, this stealth attempt has not been successful so far in preventing long dated yields from rising, therefore illustrating the liquidity sucking force of the massive debt pile and its thirst for more and more QE."

(Here's the full article FYI: https://www.crescat.net/march-research-letter/)

Anyway, Treasury futures and TLT are up again today after stabilizing this week. Growth stocks and Big Tech been doing well as the bond selloff has abated, along with precious metals.

Maybe its just me but I'm not sure that the driver... (More)