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John Fadool
US Air Force: Air Battle Manager & Military Intelligence

Geopolitics Today: Weekender Edition

Good Afternoon everyone!

Today is a morning edition as the news has been coming in quick this morning, which will make this a long and interesting issue of "Geopolitics Today" along with an update to my Algerian-Libya write up I published two weeks ago.

England Signs its First Post-Brexit Trade Deal: A Small One with Japan

Today the UK and Japanese officials signed the "Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement," marking the first comprehensive post-Brexit trade deal. However, the economic impact will be microscopic as the UK economy's expected benefit is an additional 0.07% boost to GDP over 15 years. However, it remains a political win as the nation's first successful deal as the EU Brexit negotiation head towards a likely "Hard Brexit" outcome. This is also seen as a precursor to the UK's entry, supported by Japan, to the 11-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Sources:

Second Wave of Coronavirus Crashes Europe's Recovery

As we head into the fall and winter months, the second wave has already shown signs of reappearing in Europe and France, Spain, and Italy in particular. Germany has seen a rise in cases but not at a pace seen by their neighbors and will likely clamp down as hard and effectively as the first time around. However, the massive spike in cases in Europe's most fragile economies is a sign of worse economic data to come, and likely future demands for another major EU assistance package as Spain and Italy see their economies shrink... (More)

Sam Colt
"Guy that provides the proper Experimental Design"

Winter Is Coming for outdoor dining.

Currently, we are going through the second wave of infections (schools reopened so it's not really surprising). 

I just realised that the restaurants that seemed to have survived were the ones that could basically offer outdoor dining. With the weather changes and governments restricting movements again, I fear for those remaining restaurants and bars. 

Back to doing takeouts and deliveries, I guess. 
 

Matthew Warn
Corporate Executive - Private Investor
I live in the northern midwest of the US. As I was grocery shopping for my family yesterday, I noticed there are 0 families in the store anymore and haven't been for months. Mostly just one adult shopping. Like my family, just one parent has been chosen as the most expendable to brave the wilds of the supermarket. We are limiting risk and we don't want our kid's grubby paws touching everything. Everyone was wearing a mask and being mostly conscientious. So what is this fall/winter's flu season going to be like? Its usually bad here and now you can't even get into a typical workplace without your temperature being taken or self administered and signing off on documentation in triplicate. What is going to be the impact if there is a very mild flu season? Will we decide in a year or two if Corona is over - that is just going to be ok to start spreading the flu again? Do we decide as a society to just wear masks to be preemptive from now on? Some will choose to do so; this will have an impact. What is going to be the impact to GDP if people don't get sick at the same rate moving forward? Will my team believe me when I don't come in to work the day after the Superbowl? I'm going to have to come up with better excuses... (More)
Looks like Spain is experiencing a second wave. Hopefully lessons learned through the first wave will help.