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A PSA on Viral evolution

Something I heard on the RV Daily Briefing today really made me recoil.
Now, I have nothing but full respect for Darius Dale, being a subscriber to his services at 42Macro; however he mentioned something that I can say with confidence (As a biology major) that is categorically wrong:

"It's very unusual to have a virus mutation become more virulent, and also more deadly, more dangerous more symptomatic; Usually viruses usually mutate in a way that allows their host to survive so that they can survive and spread"

I don't know why this statement gets thrown around often and would like to address it.

This idea is a very old hypothesis known as the "Avirulence hypothesis".
Although it is internally logically consistent, empirical data fails to support it. This can be easily understood by considering the following: If over time, viruses should always become less deadly, then after millions of years of evolution, why do any deadly viruses even exist at all?
Shouldn't they have all mutated to become near harmless now?
Yet viruses such as HIV, Rabies or Rotavirus haven't become any less harmful over time.

Furthermore, the original Avirulence hypothesis actually doesn't say that it's impossible for a virus to become more deadly before trending down again; Evolution does not work on 1-3 generation timescale; it works over timescales of 1,000s of generations. Within a population, many viral variants will exist, some more deadly, some less. Over time (If the Avirulence hypothesis is correct, which it isn't, but... (More)

John Crockett
Independent Global Macro Investor

India using Ivermectin: Thoughts?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2021/05/11/indian-state-will-offer-ivermectin-to-entire-adult-population---even-as-who-warns-against-its-use-as-covid-19-treatment/?sh=1912c2396d9f
 

Keep reading about this — apparently the Indian government going against the WHO guidelines and pushing this off patent drug for all (!) adults. And whatever the outcome it seems for now its been working with case counts going down from those huge spikes a couple months ago:
 

Whereas in the West this drug has been deemed not worth using for the moat part I believe. its off patent so no money for Big Pharma = no love?

With vaccines apparently losing efficacy agains the Deta variant (see Israel where ~80% of new cases are from those already vaccinated) you really have to question why so many weatern governments are pushing vaccines as the main tool against these new mutations. 
 

Looking at India and how they moved on after the West & Israel left them in the lurch re vaccines one wonders if these other treatments can wipe this virus out?


Any RVers on the ground in India to give us your views? And are people still miffed re the narrative that western nations didnt share the vaccines eary on? Or we we all just blame China? :) Thanks!

PS this is a really good thread re lockdowns, vaccinations etc.

https://twitter.com/holmenkollin/status/1415989536933490688?s=21

India new COVID cases 314k. China, just next door, only 14 (fourteen, not fourteen thousand). How come? How did China all but eliminate the disease its neighbours are reeling from?

John San
SP - ETH - GOLD / trade- expose-hoard

Youtube Documentaries "Black Death" (second)

Hi, everyone - Hope you are having  nice easter Sunday.

Here a "nice" / informatory documentary about the Black death (pandemic) times. I wanted to share with everyone. Hope you enjoy it. Interesting video for a "lazy" Sunday. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYNB4sAxemk