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Pandemic Polynomials

These are some of the few problems the calculations of which you may find pertinent.

Mean Length of Stay (LOS) for COVID-19 hospitalizations from published sources.

ICU mean LOS = 8 Days

Hospital mean LOS = 10 days 


CDC cites it at 10-13 days.

I believe we have improved significantly and the newer numbers for median hospital LOS are around 7 days (my opinion). Back to the math:

We added a net 5K hospitalizations(admissions - discharges) since Nov 24th per national activity indicator  data and as seen below  10/100k pop hospitalizations are being added weekly (overall unstratified)(it gets a lot uglier once stratified for race/age).



A better way to visualize this is below


So 25-30k new hospitalizations to be added next week, that means to keep the total hospitalizations less than 100 K, mean LOS needs to drop significantly. That anticipation is counterintuitive because increasing pressure on hospital systems means throughput congestion. With elective surgeries being canceled, covid-19 patients accounting for around 30% of total hospitalized patients, the above math has me wondering. 

Point on kinetics of infection

It was quite surprising to see a tremendous one day drop in new infections and new hospitalizations. We almost cut our néw infections in half for one day. Not that I want to insinuate the obvious cause for this, but more so to assign a placeholder for the future. 5-7 days of incubation and then a variable 7 days to present with infectious symptoms leads us into that dec 10th fda eua meeting. 

The reason I believe this is a inflection point is because if this is the super spreader event that all of us have worried about, that is when we would see a huge surge in hospitalizations. If latter is the case then it would prove Christmas would be another jolt that collectively we couldn’t handle in the same manner. Furthermore if the same momentum carries into that particular time, it gives the highest amount of leverage for policymakers to head towards the most aggressive form of lockdowns. The corollary is that we see discontiguous case slowing meaning foot traffic and behaviors have somewhat modified is towards a plateauing.

the event horizon of longevity

This is a time when palates prepare to judge the marinade of skill. It follows that a nervous delight of having survived a pandemic, grown your portfolio, consolidated your expenses must be celebrated with culinary opulence. The cascading press releases of vaccine experts exhorting their products, much like physicists breaking down gen relativity theory, provides the intellectual aquiescence as we think of how to digest our table spread. Wines provide the final salute to the triumph of rational optimism, as we give thanks for our enumerations.

The impetus behind this momentum, as we have learnt here at RV, is driven by a wide range of macroeconomic factors. Most of them first order derivatives of calculable metrics of economic data . This particular crisis however has imputed a fear factor of the 2nd order, previously obviated from consideration. This factor yielded one of the most profound liquidity crisis in modern financial history. This factor was non existent when we were around 160K deaths from respiratory illnesses in 2018, we are at 220K for this year due to covid-19, presuming negligible amount from other respiratory causes. This is where the heuristics of existentialism cause our mutual understandings to dissipate.

What I mean is where and when do numbers of deaths or hospitalizations extravasate from mundane tallying to impacting collective behavior. We are all habituated to all this sensory stimulation, from runs on TP & sanitizer to public health officials sounding alarms. Desensitization of that very fear response varies considerably as well, further... (More)

Fred KruegerExchange Expert
Chairman MetalPay / Proton Blockchain. Ex-arbitrage trader (Salomon Brothers, GCM).

It may be a fluke, but Covid growth does seem to be peaking in US

Deaths are still accelerating, but the new cases data does seem to be creating a top pattern over last week. This might again, be due to test bottlenecks, but it could be people taking COVID more seriously.

Notice that the curve is crestung